|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-14-18||Rams v. Broncos +7||23-20||Win||100||53 h 49 m||Show|
4* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Broncos +
The Rams are once again being way overvalued by the books on the road. Last week Los Angeles was a 7-point road favorite at Seattle and were fortunate to leave with a 33-31 win, as they went into the 4th quarter trailing 31-24.
Given all the hype around this team, they are going to keep getting max efforts from their opponents, as everyone wants to be the one to give them that first loss. Denver not only wants to be the Rams, but they desperately need a win after losing 3 straight.
The Broncos should have beat the Chiefs at home a few weeks back. It took some ridiculous play by Mahomes in the 4th quarter for KC to escape with a win. I think Denver has a really good shot here of not just covering, but winning this game outright.
The Rams are use to the nice weather in LA and it could be a challenge for them in this one, as temps are expected to be well below freezing at kickoff.
Broncos are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against elite teams like the Rams, who are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and have won these contests by almost 10 points/game (27.8 - 18.4). Take Denver!
|10-14-18||Chargers v. Browns +1||38-14||Loss||-110||50 h 44 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Browns +
After going 0-16 last year, the Browns came into this season way undervalued and that's evident by the fact that they are sitting at 4-1 ATS through their first 5 games. I love how this team bounced back from that crushing loss at Oakland with a 12-9 win over division rival Baltimore last week.
This team is still getting no respect, as they are basically a pick'em at home against a Chargers team that hasn't been all that impressive. LA is 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bills, 49ers (without Garoppolo) and Raiders. In their two big step up games against the Chiefs and Rams, they lost by double-digits.
It seems like every year the Chargers are hit hard with the injury bug and 2018 has been no different. The defense is still without not just their best player, but one of the elite defense players in the game in Joey Bosa. Linebackers Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White are both expected to miss this game with injuries.
I look for Baker Mayfield and that rejuvenated Browns offense to have a lot of success in this one, while the underrated Cleveland defense makes life miserable for Rivers and the Chargers offense.
LA won and covered in a 26-10 home win over the Raiders last week. That's worth noting, as the Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 14 points and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. Take Los Angels!
|10-13-18||Ole Miss -6 v. Arkansas||37-33||Loss||-104||101 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -
I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since.
That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock.
It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg.
Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team.
I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss!
|10-13-18||Missouri +28.5 v. Alabama||10-39||Loss||-115||32 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri +
After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide.
There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock.
You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late.
The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs.
Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri!
|10-13-18||Michigan State +14 v. Penn State||Top||21-17||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +
Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one.
I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright.
It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College.
I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State.
They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts.
Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State!
|10-13-18||Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5||26-23||Loss||-100||28 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina +
Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win.
It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog.
This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter.
I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina!
|10-13-18||Washington -3 v. Oregon||27-30||Loss||-115||28 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington -
I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be.
By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game.
Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home.
With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington!
|10-12-18||South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||68 h 3 m||Show|
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +
The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston.
They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team.
I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois.
If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward.
Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants +3||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +
The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late.
The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined.
The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York!
|10-11-18||Georgia Southern v. Texas State +18||15-13||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +
There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5.
Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable.
Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State!
|10-09-18||Appalachian State -9 v. Arkansas State||35-9||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why.
The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg.
Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State!
|10-08-18||Redskins +6.5 v. Saints||19-43||Loss||-105||107 h 51 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Saints MNF NO-BRAINER on Redskins +
The Saints are way over-valued here at home agains the Redskins on Monday Night Football. With how much the public loves to bet MNF and the Saints, no surprise to see New Orleans over-priced at home. I know the Saints are sitting at 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. They should have lost at home to the Browns in Week 2 and were fortunate to leave Atlanta with a 43-37 overtime win in Week 3.
While New Orleans is getting way too much love, the Redskins are flying under the radar right now. Washington comes in at 2-1 in the first year with Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has changed the dynamic of the offense, as it's much more balanced and less turnover-proned.
What really stands out to me is just how good this Redskins defense is playing to start the new season. Washington ranks 7th against the run and 3rd against the pass, as they come in allowing just 278 yards/game. We saw a good Cleveland defense going into New Orleans and really shutdown Brees and that Saints high-powered attack and I expect the Saints to struggle here.
Not only will they have a hard time moving the ball against this Redskins defense, but Smith and that Washington offense are going to look for long drives that eat up clock and keep Brees on the sidelines. Something they should be able to do with how poorly the Saints defense has played.
The other big key here that I think is getting completely overlooked, is the fact that Washington is coming off a bye. Bye weeks are huge in the NFL and I think with the extra time to prepare and get guys healthy, the Redskins could win this one outright. Take Washington!
|10-07-18||Dolphins +6.5 v. Bengals||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||76 h 39 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +
Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England.
I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss.
Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable.
I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami!
|10-07-18||Ravens v. Browns +3||9-12||Win||105||76 h 36 m||Show|
3* Ravens/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE DAY on Browns +
Public is going to be all over Baltimore as a short road favorite, but this is not the time to back the Ravens. Baltimore is off an impressive win at Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football and are sitting strong going into Week 5 at 3-1, but it's a lot tougher than people realize to win back-to-back on the road, especially against division opponents.
Cleveland was a questionable call away from a win over the Raiders last week and I really like what I've seen out of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. This is a legit Browns offense with him under center and while the defense struggled last week on the west coast, I expect them to return to form at home. This is not an elite Baltimore offense by any stretch.
Ravens defense has been great the last two weeks, holding both the Broncos and Steelers to just 14 points. However, that sets a very profitable spot to fade Baltimore. Road teams that are outscoring teams by 10+ ppg are just 9-32 (22%) ATS after holding two straight teams to 14 or fewer points. Take Cleveland!
|10-07-18||Wyoming +3.5 v. Hawaii||13-17||Loss||-115||59 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises early on. A Rainbow Warriors team that won just 3 games last year, has started out 5-1 with two outright wins as an underdog. However, both those underdog wins came in their first two games.
They have since gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and I think they are getting way too much respect here against a Wyoming team that is a lot more talented than their 2-3 record would suggest. Two of those three losses have come against Power 5 opponents and the other against a Boise State team that is one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country.
The biggest thing that has held the Cowboys back is their offense, but they will have no problem moving the ball here against this Hawaii defense. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg, almost a touchdown more/game than what their opponents are averaging.
With a talented defense that is better than people realize because of the poor numbers from the tough slate, I think the Cowboys not only cover the spread but win this game outright. Take Wyoming!
|10-06-18||Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +6.5||45-23||Loss||-100||45 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Non-Conf PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +
I think this is an ideal spot to jump on the Hokies as a home dog, especially with this being a nationally televised (ABC) night game. It's hard enough to win at Lane Stadium on normal circumstances, it takes all you got to win here in a night game.
Notre Dame has looked great early on and are off that impressive 38-17 win over Stanford last week. However, that was at home, where the Irish have benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 and I know the Cardinal were ranked No. 7 going into that contest, but I've not been impressed at all with what I've seen from Stanford.
Notre Dame's only true road game was at Wake Forest, who are a good up and coming team, but have zero defense. This is without a doubt the biggest challenge to date for the Irish and outside of their no-show against Old Dominion, this team has looked impressive, especially on defense, where they are giving up just 84 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards/carry.
I think this line would be closer to a pick'em if it wasn't for the injury to Hokies quarterback Justin Jackson, but I don't think there's that big of a drop-off to backup Ryan Willis, who torched a good Duke defense last week for 332 yards and 3 scores. An outright win for the home team wouldn't surprise me at all. Take Virginia Tech!
|10-06-18||Washington -20 v. UCLA||Top||31-24||Loss||-110||58 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -
Washington has won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Auburn and have racked up 3 straight impressive wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona State and BYU. I think we are seeing a shorter line here because this looks like a flat spot off those three and an even bigger game at Oregon on deck.
It's certainly not an ideal spot, but I also don't think UCLA has the talent for it to matter. The biggest thing to keep in mind is Washington can't afford to overlook anyone, as one more loss and they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
With how good the Huskies are defensively and how bad the Bruins are offensively, it's going to be really tough for UCLA to keep this within 3 touchdowns. Washington sits 10th in the country in total defense, giving up just 290 ypg. The Bruins are 102nd in rushing (135.8 ypg) and 109th in passing (176.3 ypg).
Look for the Huskies to have excellent field position throughout and I'm expecting a couple costly turnovers by UCLA to really open this thing up. Keep in mind the the Bruins defense is not good. They are 95th against the run (183 ypg) and 85th against the pass (238.5 ypg). They gave up 38 at home to Fresno St and I think Washington could score 50+ and you have to think this Huskies offense is itching for a big day offensively after all the good defenses they have played. Take Washington!
|10-06-18||Auburn -3 v. Mississippi State||9-23||Loss||-110||58 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn -
There was a ton of hype around this Mississippi State coming into the season and even after back-to-back ugly losses at Kentucky and at home to Florida, I still think the Bulldogs are getting way too much respect from the books.
Auburn made some noise with their impressive Week 1 win over Washington, but haven't exactly impressed since. They are just 1-3 ATS in the 4 games since beating the Huskies and lost outright at home to LSU as a 10-point favorite. I think it has the Tigers undervalued here against a Mississippi State team that is clearly struggling to adjust to the new offensive scheme under first year head coach Joe Moorehead.
While the Bulldogs defense has played well enough to win, I just don't see the offense being able to figure things out and do enough here against an elite Auburn defense to win this game, which is basically what they need to do for the Tigers not to cover.
Mississippi State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating 275 or fewer total yards and the Tigers are now 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Auburn!
|10-06-18||UTSA +2 v. Rice||20-3||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +
I think the wrong team is favored here. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. The Owls only win this season came against Prairie View at home in the opener and they only won by 3 as a 22-point favorite.
I certainly don't think they deserve to have the line shaded their way because they are playing at home. Rice didn't win a home game last year and have covered just 2 of their last 6 at home and lost outright in the only game they were favored.
Rice's defense is atrocious, as they are giving up 42.4 ppg and 484 ypg. They are also allowing nearly 8 yards/play, which is basically a first down every time the other team snaps the ball. The offense isn't much better. They have zero threat of a passing game and that figures to be a big problem against a UTSA defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. The Roadrunners held Baylor to just 91 yards rushing and Texas State to 26.
I also like the fact that UTSA is coming into this one playing with confidence as they are riding a 2-game winning streak. Look for the Roadrunners defense to make more than enough stops for them to cash in a rare road win. Take UTSA!
|10-06-18||Iowa State +11 v. Oklahoma State||48-42||Win||100||54 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
Oklahoma State is getting way too much respect here as a double-digit home favorite against the Cyclones.
A big reason for that is Iowa State just isn't getting a ton of respect after starting out 1-3, but it's easy to see why they have the record they do when they have played Iowa and TCU on the road and Oklahoma at home. Note that while they lost to both Oklahoma and TCU, they covered against both conference rivals, losing by just 10 as a 18.5-point dog against the Sooners and by just 3 as a 11.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs.
While Oklahoma State is off a 20-point win and cover over Kansas, they were fortunate to cover, scoring a garbage TD in the final minutes. We have already seen this team lose outright as a home favorite to Texas Tech and it wasn't pretty, as they got rolled 41-17.
The Red Raiders really made it tough on Oklahoma State's passing attack and this ISU defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents under 200 yards passing. I've liked what I've seen out of backup QB Zeb Noland and this Cyclones offense.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised here to see ISU win this game outright, as they matchup well on both sides of the ball. Take Iowa State!
|10-06-18||LSU v. Florida +3||19-27||Win||100||40 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida +
If this line doesn't scream take the Gators, I don't know what does. LSU is the No. 5 ranked team in the country and have gained the respect of the public with a 33-17 win over Miami, 22-21 win at Auburn and their recent 45-16 thrashing of Ole Miss.
Florida is ranked No. 22, but there's still a lot of question marks with this team. As good as their upset win at Mississippi State was last week, it's hard to ignore that 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky.
Simply put, the books are begging for you to take LSU here and the public has taken the bait with roughly 70% of the bets coming in on the Tigers.
I agree with the books, as I have Florida winning this game outright (will gladly take the field goal for insurance). I'm still not sold on this LSU offense being able to move the ball when they go up against a good defense. They are just 79th in the country in total offense at 396.6 ypg. The Gators are 19th in the country, giving up just 311 ypg and are holding opponents a full yard less than what their opponents are averaging.
Look for the Gators defense and a rowdy home crowd to the difference in this one. Take Florida!
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville||66-31||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Ga Tech/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -
I love this spot for the Yellow Jackets and fully expect them to go on the road and put it on a Louisville team that looks lost without Lamar Jackson to carry them offensively. The Cardinals come in averaging a whopping 18.4 ppg and 312 ypg. A drastic drop-off from the 38.1 ppg and 545 ypg they averaged a season ago.
Sophomore quarterback Juwan Pass was suppose to step into the big shoes left by Jackson and keep the offense afloat, but it's been a massive struggle for the Cardinals new signal caller. He's thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 touchdowns and is barely completing more than 50% of his attempts.
Georgia Tech's defensive numbers don't look great on paper, but they have really only played bad in 2 games and those were against a couple of high-powered offenses in USF and Clemson. Louisville clearly isn't on the same level as those two teams and I look for the Yellow Jackets to make it very difficult on this Cardinals offense.
The other thing here is the Louisville defense has had just 5 days to regroup from that crushing home loss to FSU and try to prepare for this option offense of Georgia Tech. I just think that's a too tall a task for the Cardinals, who have never faced the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!
|10-04-18||Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy||20-37||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Georgia State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||27-23||Win||100||191 h 36 m||Show|
4* Chiefs/Broncos (MNF) ATS NO-BRAINER on Broncos +
The Chiefs have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start behind the sensational play of 1st-year starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who set a new NFL record with 13 TD passes in the first 3 games of the season. This amazing start has KC way overvalued here as a road favorite against a division rival.
The Broncos have started out 2-1 and are greatly improved over last year, as they now have a legit offense with Case Keenum at quarterback and the emergence of running back Phillip Lindsay, who is averaging 6.0 yards/carry over the first 3 games. An improved offense is all Denver needed to get back to being a playoff contender, as they have a top tier defense behind Von Miller and company.
As good as Mahomes has been, he has struggled against the blitz and Denver ranks in the Top 5 in the league in percentage of plays that they blitz on. Look for that Broncos defense to slow down the high-powered KC attack, while the offense should be able to move the ball at will against a horrible Chiefs defense.
Broncos are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games against top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take Denver!
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants +3.5||33-18||Loss||-105||88 h 50 m||Show|
4* Saints/Giants NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants +
The Giants are way undervalued here getting over a field goal at home. In fact, I think it should be New York that is the favorite. New Orleans is simply getting too much respect for their 2-1 start, as the Saints could just as easily be 0-3.
New Orleans lost at home in Week 1 to the Bucs and should have lost at home in Week 2 to the Browns. They were also fortunate to win in OT at Atlanta in Week 3, a victory that was greatly aided by the Falcons missing some key pieces on the defensive side of the ball.
The Giants are just 1-2, but could easily be sitting at 2-1, as they let one get away at home against the Jaguars in Week 1. New York avoided an 0-3 start with an impressive 27-22 win at Houston and it was by far the best the Giants offense had looked to this point. Given how bad the Saints defense has looked early on, look for Eli Manning and company to have another big day here.
The key here is New York's defense is better than it gets credit for. The strength of the Giants defense has been their secondary, which ranks 11th in the NFL giving up just 232 ypg. We all know the Saints offense is built around Brees and that passing attack, so this is a great matchup for NY. Not to mention the Saints offense tends to struggle on the road in games played outside.
New Orleans is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover. Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs strong passing teams that are completing 64% or more of their attempts. Take New York!
|09-30-18||Bucs v. Bears -3||10-48||Win||105||84 h 22 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bears +
This is too good a price to pass up on Chicago at home. The Bears are one of the most improved teams in the league and should be 3-0 if not for that big collapse on the road against Green Bay in Week 1.
While the Bucs are also 2-1, they came back to earth last time out, losing at home to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay lost by a final score of just 30-27, but were down 30-10 at the half. Really tough spot here for the Bucs playing no a short week of rest and I just don't see Tampa Bay's offense being able to do enough here against an elite Bears defense.
The even bigger key here is that this Bucs defense is one the Bears' offense can exploit. Tampa Bay comes in ranked 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 433.4 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, allowing 362.7 ypg. While two of those games were against Brees and Roethlisberger, they also allowed Nick Foles to throw for 334 yards against them.
Look for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense to put up their best numbers of 2018 and that should be more than enough for Chicago to pull away for the win and cover. Adding to this is the fact that the Bucs are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 vs bad passing teams that are averaging 5.2 or less yards/attempt. Bears are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, including a 5-0-1 ATS mark in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago!
|09-29-18||BYU v. Washington -16.5||7-35||Win||100||120 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Washington -
I got no problem here laying the big number with the Huskies at home against the Cougars. The betting public is all over BYU at this price, as that upset win at Wisconsin as a 23.5-point dog is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people.
The win over Wisconsin looks great on paper, but I'm not so sure the Badgers are as good as we expected. There's also little to be excited about with their road win at Arizona to open the season, as the Wildcats have looked horrible. The game that stands out to me is the home loss to Cal, who is no where close as talented as this Washington team.
I also don't think people are factoring in just how difficult it is to play well Husky Stadium, especially under the lights in a prime time game.
The even bigger key here is this is a statement game for Washington, who need to dominate the rest of the way to get into the playoffs with that loss they suffered early to Auburn.
I look for the defense of the Huskies to be what allows them to not just win but cover. BYU's offense comes in ranked 119th in the country at just 320.3 ypg. That's just not going to cut against this elite defense. Take Washington!
|09-29-18||Ohio State v. Penn State +4||Top||27-26||Win||100||60 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +
I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.
The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy.
As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back.
The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium.
Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State!
|09-29-18||South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky||10-24||Loss||-105||60 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +
It's been quite the start to the season for Kentucky, who is 4-0 with wins over two ranked teams in Florida and Mississippi State. The win over Mississippi State really turned some heads and people are starting to buy into this team. South Carolina has started out 2-1, but had an ugly loss at home to Georgia that quieted the hype around this team.
The books are all but begging the public to take Kentucky here laying less than a field goal at home, but I'm going the other way. I think this Gamecocks team is a lot better than people think. While they might not be as talented as the top teams in the SEC, I certainly feel like they are the more talented team in this matchup.
I also think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Not only are they off an emotional win over Mississippi State, but that victory got the respect they were so desperately wanting, as Kentucky went from unranked to No. 17 in the country. It's a lot easier playing with a chip on your shoulder than dealing with the pressure of being expected to win.
The other big thing for me is the matchup. Kentucky's offense is centered around running back Benny Snell, as they come in averaging 269 ypg on the ground to just 158 ypg through the air. They are running it twice as much as they are throwing it. I think that plays right into the strength of this South Carolina defense, which is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 5.5.
The Gamecocks are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games played on Saturday, while Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, which includes an 0-7 mark as a home favorite. Take South Carolina!
|09-29-18||Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina||35-37||Win||100||44 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Old Dominion +
This is just too good a price to pass up on with the Monarchs. Old Dominion pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 4, as they knocked Virginia Tech 49-35 as a massive 28-point home dog. I think the perception here is that the Monarchs win was a just a result of the Hokies not showing up to play. While that definitely wasn't the best effort from Va Tech, I think it's a mistake to not give some credit to Old Dominion.
The Monarchs put up 632 yards of total offense and it was a direct result of a quarterback change. Blake La Russa came off the bench and 30 of 49 for 495 yards and 4 scores. He lit a fire under this team they had been desperately missing in their 0-3 start, which saw them lose to the likes of Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. Keep in mind this is a team that brought back 16 starters and was suppose to be greatly improved.
As for East Carolina, they also have an impressive outright win as a big dog against an ACC team. The Pirates defeated UNC 41-19 as a 15-point dog. The thing is, that's not a very good Tar Heels team and it doesn't cover up the fact that they lost outright at home to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. They also had just 13 points against a bad USF defense. I just don't think ECU should be laying this big a number against a team that I feel is every bit as talented as them.
Pirates are also not a team that has had a lot of success covering the number under head coach Philip Montgomery. In fact, they are 8-19 ATS with him at head coach. They are also a miserable 3-13 ATS in the first month of the season. Take Old Dominion!
|09-28-18||Memphis -14 v. Tulane||24-40||Loss||-105||21 h 3 m||Show|
3* Friday Night NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -
I just don't think it's asking much for Memphis to win here by more than two touchdowns. Tulane's only win on the season came at home against FCS foe Nicholls State. While they did lost by just 6 at home to Wake Forest earlier in the season, they only managed 17 points against what has been an awful Demon Deacons defense.
They aren't going to keep this within two touchdowns without a huge offensive effort, as this Memphis offense is no joke. The Tigers come in average 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg. They are also averaging 8.7 yards/play, nearly picking up a first down every time they snap the ball. Memphis is built around their passing attack, but are also averaging 309 ypg on the ground.
The big key here is that Tulane is not a team that is built to play from behind with that option based offense that comes in averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Look for the Tigers to jump out to an early lead and win here by 20+ points.
Adding to this, we see that road teams off back-to-back wins by 14 or more points who are winning at least 60% of their games are 67-29 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Memphis!
|09-27-18||Vikings +6.5 v. Rams||31-38||Loss||-105||95 h 42 m||Show|
4* Vikings/Rams Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Vikings, who I think are more than capable of going into LA and winning this game outright. Minnesota is way undervalued after that ugly loss to the Bills and the Rams are way overvalued right now after starting out a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS.
If you remember back to last year, Minnesota beat the Rams 24-7 on their home field. They held the high-powered LA offense to just 254 yards and 15 first downs. They also dominated the time of possession 37:22 to 22:38.
I expect the Vikings to use a similar game-plan in this one, though I also think they are more than capable of winning this game in a shootout. The Rams defense looked great against a couple of bad offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. It wasn't nearly as good last week against the Chargers and will go into this one missing both their star corners in Talib and Peters. They will also be without linebacker Mark Barron.
This is a statement game for Minnesota and I just don't see the Rams pulling away and winning here by a touchdown or more. I see this one being extremely competitive right down to the wire, making this an easy play with the big spread. Take Minnesota!
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions +7||10-26||Win||100||144 h 53 m||Show|
4* NFL Sunday Night Football ATS NO BRAINER on Lions +
The public perception couldn't be much worse on the Lions after their 0-2 start, especially the ugly loss at home in prime time against the Jets in Week 1. That combined with the public wanting to jump on the Patriots off a loss, has Detroit showing some exceptional value here at home on Sunday Night Football.
The Lions might not be a great team, but they are going to play their hearts out for their new head coach Matt Patricia, as he came to Detroit from New England. Not to mention their season is pretty much on the line, as it's no secret that your chances of making the playoffs are slim to none if you start the season 0-3. I'm not saying they win the game, but I don't think it's out of the question.
New England is beat up right now. They got multiple key players on both sides of the ball injured and the Patriots are a team that has consistently started out slow. NE is also a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record.
We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30+ points in their last game are 120-72 (63%) ATS when facing a team off a loss by 10 or more. Take Detroit!
|09-23-18||49ers +7 v. Chiefs||Top||27-38||Loss||-105||100 h 7 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers +
The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league.
Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense.
I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright.
There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco!
|09-23-18||Colts +7 v. Eagles||16-20||Win||100||93 h 9 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Colts +
The public is all over the Eagles with the news that Carson Wentz is making his much anticipated debut of 2018 and it has Philadelphia way overvalued here at home against the Colts. Indy is a legit playoff threat in the AFC with Andrew Luck back at quarterback.
After blowing a 13-point lead in their opener at home against the Bengals, Indianapolis went on the road and put it on the Redskins in a 21-9 win. We knew the offense would be improved with Luck back under center, but the perception is the Colts have no defense. That's not the case and even with Wentz back in the lineup, I think the Eagles offense will struggle here.
Philadelphia is missing a ton of key pieces on the offensive side of the ball. Alshon Jeffery is still out with a shoulder injury. Fellow wide out Mike Wallace and running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles will join him on the sidelines.
Colts have thrived as a dog in this price range with their signal caller under center. Indy is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points with Luck at quarterback. Take Indianapolis!
|09-22-18||Arkansas v. Auburn -29||3-34||Win||100||20 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime-Time ATS DESTROYER on Auburn -
I really like Auburn to bounce back in a big way from last week's gut-wrenching 22-21 home loss to LSU. That's definitely one they would have loved to win, but it doesn't ruin their season. Keep in mind they lost a heartbreaker to LSU last year and went on to win the SEC West. What it does do is put Auburn in playoff mode early in the year, as they essentially have to win out.
A lot of people might think Auburn will come out flat after that loss, but I expect the exact opposite. This a statement game for the Tigers and Arkansas is just the team for them to get back on track against. The Razorbacks have been a huge disappointment in year one under head coach Chad Morris. They blew a big 2nd half lead in a 27-34 defeat at Colorado St and followed that up by getting annihilated at home 44-17 by North Texas.
Look for Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to have a field day here against this Arkansas defense that is giving up 300 ypg through the air and allowing opposing QBs to complete 61% of their attempts. With a defense that is as good as any in the country, the Tigers should take control of this game early and turn this into a blowout by half. Take Auburn!
|09-22-18||Michigan State -4 v. Indiana||35-21||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan State -
This is the perfect spot to buy-low on the Spartans. Michigan State came into the season ranked No. 11 in the country, but did have the start people were expecting. They needed a late score to knock off Utah State 38-31 as a 23.5-point favorite and then lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State.
Coming in those were viewed as two easy wins, but turns out both of those teams are a lot better than people think. You also have to factor in just how hard it is for a midwest team to travel out to the west coast and play well. A lot of Big Tens teams over the years have struggled on the road against the Pac-12 early in the year.
This is still a really good Michigan State team and while Indiana is no push-over, it's asking a lot of the Hoosiers to essentially keep this game within a field goal. I also think Indiana is getting a little too much love for that 28-point win over Ball State. Given how well the Cardinals played against Notre Dame on the road the previous week, that's viewed as a good win, but I think they got Ball State in a massive letdown spot.
Note that Indiana was 5-1 ATS as a favorite last year and just 1-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. This team looks good against inferior teams and hit has them overvalued when they take a step up in competition. I think that's what we are seeing here, as the Spartans should win here by double-digits. Take Michigan State!
|09-22-18||Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU||Top||21-38||Win||100||70 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on LA Tech +
This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team.
Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite.
The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball.
The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games.
The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
|09-22-18||UNLV v. Arkansas State -7||20-27||Push||0||20 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State
The Red Wolves come into this one at 2-1 with the only loss coming at No. 1 Alabama. Last time out they won outright 29-20 as a road dog against a much-improved Tulsa team and I look for them to have no problem here covering the number at home against UNLV.
UNLV comes in averaging an impressive 39.7 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with the fact they played two cupcakes (UTEP & Prairie View) at home the last two times out. The fact that they played USC tough and covered the big number in Week 1 has them overvalued here.
The key here is the Rebels just don't play enough defense to be competitive on the road against a quality team like Arkansas State. UNLV is giving up a ridiculous 5.4 yards/carry on the ground, allowing 1.3 more yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. That plays right into the strength of this Red Wolves' offense, which is averaging 4.8 yards/carry on the ground this season.
Red Wolves Blake Anderson is 13-2 ATS as a head coach vs teams that are giving up 4.75 or more yards/carry. Take Arkansas State!
|09-22-18||Charlotte +10 v. UMass||31-49||Loss||-110||79 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +
UMass has no business being this big of a favorite with the way this team is playing. The Minutemen are absolutely atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have allowed 63 points and 536 yards to FIU, 34 points and 485 yards to Georgia Southern and 55 points and 622 yards to BC (Eagles had 48 pts at the half).
They simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win games with that kind of production from their defense. Charlotte is not a great offensive team by any means, but they just had 373 yards and 28 points against a talented Old Dominion team. They are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, giving them an excellent shot at keeping this close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won the game outright.
It's also worth noting that UMass could be down it's top two quarterbacks. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both questionable to play. Michael Curtis would be the starter if they can't go and he was just 8 of 15 with 2 picks against FIU. Take Charlotte!
|09-22-18||Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion +29||35-49||Win||100||66 h 54 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Od Dominion +
It's been a complete disaster of a start for Old Dominion. Coming off a 5-7 campaign, where they won 3 of their last 4, a lot of people thought this team would easily make a bowl with 16 starters back. Instead the Monarchs have started 0-3 with losses at Liberty and Charlotte and a home defeat to FIU.
The thing is, they could easily be 2-1 right now, as they blew a 17-point lead against FIU and missed out on several scoring opportunities in a 3-point loss the 49ers. I think there ugly start combined with how good Virginia Tech has looked, has the Hokies getting way too much respect on the road.
That win over FSU doesn't look all that impressive any more and their other victory was against William & Mary. I'm not so sure this team is as good as people think. With a much bigger game on deck against Duke and the fact they are a 4-toucdhown favorite, I could see them looking past the Monarchs.
Old Dominion knows an outright upset is likely out of reach, but expect this team to play their hearts out at home in this in-state rivalry (schools only separated by 300 miles). That should be more than enough for the Monarchs, who do have some talent, to keep this within the number. Take Old Dominion!
|09-22-18||Boston College v. Purdue +7||13-30||Win||100||75 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Purdue +
I just think there's too much value here with Purdue getting a touchdown at home against Boston College. The Boilermakers come into this game sitting at 0-3, but just as easily could be 3-0. Their 3 losses have come by a combined 8-points.
We just saw Boston College get all they could handle on the road against Wake Forest in their last game and I think there's a good chance Purdue wins this game outright. This is basically a do-or-die point of the season for the Boilermakers. A win here and a bowl game is definitely still within reach. A loss and it doesn't look good.
As for the Eagles, they come in feeling really good about themselves after their 3-0 start and just got rewarded with a Top 25 ranking (No. 23). I think it will be really hard for BC to match the intensity that Purdue is going to be playing with.
The Boilermakers can put up points and while BC is known for their defense under Addazzio, they just gave up 512 yards to a Demon Deacons offense that scored just 23 against Tulane. WF rushed for 298 yards (5.0 yards/carry).
BC has a decent offense of their own, but note that Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm is 15-4 ATS when facing a team that's completing 58% or more of their pass attempts and 11-2 ATS vs teams that run for more than 4.75 yards/carry. Take Purdue!
|09-22-18||Nebraska +18 v. Michigan||10-56||Loss||-105||68 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +
There was a ton of hype around the Cornhuskers this year, as they landed promising head coach Scott Frost, who had just guided UCF to a perfect 13-0 season. All of that buzz has subsided after Nebraska's 0-2 start. Losing at home to Colorado in the opener, a game they could have easily won, was acceptable, but a 19-24 loss to Troy has people completely off this team.
Michigan on the other hand is another team that people were really high on this year, as they landed Ole Miss quarter transfer Shea Patterson and many felt that was the one position holding this team back in previous years. The Wolverines were a 3-point favorite at Notre Dame and lost 17-24 and were completely outplayed. However, Michigan has rebounded with a 49-3 win over Western Michigan and 45-20 win over SMU to get back some respect.
I think it all adds up to a ton of value here with Nebraska as a 3-point dog. They lost to Troy without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, but he's expected back in the lineup this week. I've also been really impressed with this Nebraska defense, which is only giving up 2.7 yards/rush. I also don't trust the Michigan offense.
The Wolverines edge in talent should have them win this game, but expect it to be a dogfight right until the end. Take Nebraska!
|09-22-18||Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5||56-27||Loss||-105||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
Notre Dame is getting way too much respect here on the road against a good Wake Forest team. The Fighting Irish come into this game off to a perfect 3-0 start and are ranked No. 8 in the country. The thing is, Notre Dame has had to grind out wins in each 3 games and arguably should have lost last week at home to Vanderbilt.
I was really impressed with how well Wake Forest played in their last game at home against a very good Boston College team. This Demon Deacons offense is no joke, as they put up over 500 yards of offense against the Eagles.
Wake Forest has had ample amount of time to get ready for this game, as they last played on Sept. 13th. They not only have an edge in rest, but I think the homefield advantage is huge here, especially with this being Notre Dame's first game on the road in 2018.
The Demon Deacons more than held their own last year in South Bend, losing by just 11-points as a 14.5-point dog. I not only think they get the cover at home this time around, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest!
|09-21-18||Washington State v. USC -3.5||36-39||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -
This is the perfect buy-low spot on the Trojans. All the hype around USC being a playoff contender is completely out the window after the Trojans suffered back-to-back losses to fall to 1-2. The thing is, it was more of a result of a brutal schedule, as those two losses came at Stanford and at Texas. You have to keep in mind just how hard it is to win on the road against top tier teams and the fact that the Trojans are sending out a true freshman at quarterback.
J.T. Daniels has had his ups and downs, but despite his 1-3 TD-INT ratio, I think he has a really bright future at USC. This could very well be his breakout performance here at home against a Washington State team that is getting way too much respect after their 3-0 start.
The Cougars should be 3-0 right now, as they opened up the season against the likes of Wyoming, San Jose St and Eastern Washington. I look for Washington State to show their true colors in their first real road test of 2018. Keep in mind the Cougars only returned 10 starters from last year and had to replace their all-time leading passer in Luke Falk, as well as their leading rusher and top two receivers.
The other big thing here is the Trojans are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, not only to avoid to their 3rd straight loss, but to get revenge from last year's upset loss at Washington State, when they were No. 5 in the country. Take USC!
|09-21-18||Penn State v. Illinois +29||63-24||Loss||-110||100 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +
The Nittany Lions are getting way to much respect from the books in Friday's game at Illinois. The home teams have a huge advantage in these weekday games and I look for the Fighting Illini faithful to show their support in what is easily their biggest home on the schedule for 2018. Not to mention this is a much-improved Illinois team from last year's 2-10 squad.
The Fighting Illini are going to do everything in their power here to pull off the upset. While I don't see that happening, they got an excellent shot here of keeping this within 4 scores. Penn State has won big in each of their last two games, but have not started strong and let's not forget about that near upset at home in Week 1 against Appalachian State.
The even bigger key here is the spot for the Nittany Lions. It's going to be extremely hard for Penn State to give Illinois their full attention with arguably their biggest game of the season on deck next Saturday, as they will host Ohio State. A game that very well could decide the Big Ten East and the Nittany Lions' playoff hopes.
The goal here isn't to embarrass Illinois, but just make sure they get a win and avoid any injuries, so even if this does get out of hand early, the backdoor will be wide open. Take Illinois!
|09-20-18||Jets +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-21||Loss||-100||36 h 31 m||Show|
5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets +
The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now.
The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup.
No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York!
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||17-31||Loss||-105||28 h 42 m||Show|
3* Tulsa/Temple AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +
Temple is getting way too much respect here against a Tulsa team that is a lot better than most people realize. The Golden Hurricane went just 2-10 last year and are off to a 1-2 start, but one of those losses was on the road to Texas, a game they only lost by 7-points as a 21-point underdog.
They let one get away at home this past Saturday against Arkansas State, while Temple avoided an 0-3 start with a shocking 35-14 win at Maryland. I think that's definitely got the number a lot higher than it should be.
The Owls were a desperate team going into that game against the Terps and I think Maryland came into that contest with a big head and just thought they were going to roll over Temple at home. Look for the Owls to come back down to earth in this one. Keep in mind they lost at home to both Villanova and Buffalo to start the season.
Tulsa has had no problem scoring under head coach Philip Montgomery. Even last year when they lost a ton on the offensive side of the ball they averaged nearly 30 ppg. The big problem has been the defense, but this year's stop unit looks to be much improved over previous versions. After facing a couple of really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State, I look for them to show out a little bit here on defense against a very mediocre Temple offense.
Golden Hurricane are 12-3 ATS as a road dog under Montgomery, including a 10-2 ATS mark against conference opponents. Take Tulsa!
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears -4.5||17-24||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
3* Seahawks/Bears MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bears -
A lot of people are going to look at this line and think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Bears strong showing in Week 1 against the Packers on Sunday Night Football, a game they somehow managed to lose after being up 20-0 in the 2nd half. I think the line is more than justified and you could argue that given the injuries for Seattle this line should be closer to a touchdown.
Seattle's offensive line is once again one of the worst in the league and they could be without starting guard D.J. Fluker. The Seahawks front was completely outmatched by Von Miller and the Broncos in Week 1, as Denver sacked Russell Wilson 6 times. Expect more of the same from a Chicago defense front that was already good before they added in former Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. Note that the Broncos only managed 1 sack on Sunday against Derek Carr and the Raiders.
However, it's not so much about how the Bears defense is going to own the Seahawks offensive line, but the fact that Chicago's offense should be able to move the ball against this Seattle defense. The Seahawks gave up 470 total yards and allowed Case Keenum to throw for 329 yards and 3 scores in Week 1. As limited as Tribusky is, with Seattle missing their two star linebackers in Wright and Wagner, Chicago will be able to move the ball on the ground and that should allow for some big plays from Tribusky on play-action. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bears won this in a blowout. Take Chicago!
|09-16-18||Patriots v. Jaguars +2||Top||20-31||Win||100||61 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +
This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home.
This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable.
I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush.
Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|09-16-18||Dolphins +3 v. Jets||20-12||Win||100||58 h 57 m||Show|
4* AFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dolphins +
This game was expected to be around a pick'em until the Jets went on the road and laid it on the Lions 48-17 in an outright win as a 7-point dog. After throwing a pick six on the very first play of his NFL career, Sam Darnold completed 16 of his next 20 attempts for 198 yards and 2 scores. The perception here is that it was an impressive win against a good Lions team, but I'm not so sure Detroit won't finish last in the NFC North this year.
The defense for the Jets played outstanding, holding the Lions to just 339 yards and forcing 5 turnovers, but it was revealed after the game that New York basically new what Detroit was running before they snapped the ball. I'm just not buying the defense was as good as it looked.
As for Miami, they won 27-20 at home over the Titans and it was an impressive day for Ryan Tannehill, as he was 20 of 28 for 230 yards. The Dolphins also had 120 yards rushing on just 29 attempts. This is a different offense with Tannehill under center. People forget they went 10-6 with him in 2016. I actually think the Dolphins are the better team here, making this an easy play with them catching a field goal.
Teams who had a losing record the previous year and are listed as home favorites in conference games are a mere 87-142 ATS since 1983. That's a 62% system in favor of the Dolphins covering. Take Miami!
|09-16-18||Chargers v. Bills +8.5||31-20||Loss||-105||14 h 48 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bills +
The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to to do with the Bills after how bad they looked in Week 1 against the Ravens. That was on the road against a good Baltimore team. They should be more competitive at home and I liked them going to Josh Allen. The offense couldn't have been any worse than it was with Nathan Peterman at quarterback.
Look for them to be able to move the ball here against a Chargers defense that is missing some big pieces. Most notably up front, where Joey Bosa is sidelined with a foot injury and Corey Liuget is serving a 4-game suspension. I'm not saying Buffalo will win the game, but they should be able to keep within this inflated number.
Bills are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after allowing 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Chargers on the other hand are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 off a straight up loss, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 350 or more yards and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Take Buffalo!
|09-16-18||Texans v. Titans +3||17-20||Win||100||14 h 46 m||Show|
3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Titans +
The public is all over the Texans in this one and it's created some big time value here with the Titans as a home division dog. Tennessee lost 20-27 at Miami, which is no easy place to play this early in the season and the game got delayed twice. This team is better than people give them credit for and they have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a SU loss and are winning by almost a touchdown on average in this spot.
Everyone remembers what Deshaun Watson did last year in his brief stint before being injured and I think they just assume he's going to go right back to being that same guy. I just think it could take some time. He certainly was 17 of 34 for a 176 yards against the Patriots in Week 1. Keep in mind he torched New England for 301 yards and 2 scores on 22 of 33 passing last year. I look for him to struggle again and for the Titans to win this one outright. Take Tennessee!
|09-16-18||Eagles v. Bucs +3.5||21-27||Win||100||14 h 39 m||Show|
4* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bucs +
No one was giving the Bucs a shot at even being competitive against the Saints in Week 1 and they went into New Orleans and won 48-40 behind backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think there's a perception that there's a huge drop-off from Jameis Winston to Fitzpatrick and I'm not so sure there is. Most were quick to just the Saints didn't come to play and that's why Tampa Bay won, but I think that only adds fuel to the fire here the Bucs. Not that they weren't going to show up at home against the defending Super Bowl champs.
The Eagles were a bit lucky to win their opener over the Falcons at home. With Wentz still sidelined and some other key players out for Philadelphia, I think they are going to have a tough time matching the intensity of Tampa Bay. I know how good Foles was in the playoffs, but the offense was horrible with him under center in the preseason and it didn't look good against Atlanta. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I fully expect the Bucs to win outright. Take Tampa Bay!
|09-15-18||Ohio State v. TCU +14||40-28||Win||100||1 h 22 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on TCU
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-15-18||USC v. Texas -3||14-37||Win||100||104 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Prime-Time (USC/TEXAS) NO-BRAINER on Texas -
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Longhorns at home. There was so much hype around this Texas team in year two under Tom Herman and that balloon was popped in Week 1 when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite at Maryland. They followed that up with a mere 28-21 win at home over Tulsa as a 21-point favorite.
Clearly there was a little too much hype on this team, but I also don't think it's time to write them off. They lost to Maryland last year and were a few breaks away from being a 10-win team. That's also a better Terrapins team than people realize. As for the 7-point win against Tulsa, they were up 21-0 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Maybe they started looking ahead to this game against USC?
A game you know they have had circled on the calendar. Not just because it's USC, but they want revenge from last year's crushing 24-27 overtime loss, where they really outplayed Sam Darnold and the Trojans. Darnold is gone and this USC team is down a notch or two from last year. We saw Stanford get their revenge against them last week, holding the Trojans to just 3-points and 332 yards. Freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels looked every bit a freshman on the road and I see no reason not to expect the same thing here. Take Texas!
|09-15-18||LSU +10.5 v. Auburn||22-21||Win||100||70 h 10 m||Show|
3* LSU/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU +
There's just not the same hype around this LSU program as there has been in years past. Not many people gave this team much of a shot against Miami in their opener and they came out with a chip on their shoulder and laid it on the Hurricanes in a 33-17 win. Auburn on the other hand is a team people were high on and the hype around this team only got stronger after they knocked off Washington.
I just think we are seeing an inflated number here and too much value with LSU to pass up. I know Auburn has a great defense, but so does LSU, which is no surprise given that Dave Aranda is their defensive coordinator. I know it came against a FCS school, but that same Miami offense LSU held to 17 points put up 77 in their next game, recording the largest margin of victory in school history.
I think this is going to turn out to be an old-school defensive battle that could either way in the 4th quarter. All we need is for LSU to lose by 10 or less and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they beat Auburn again (won 27-23 at home last year). LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record and closed out last year going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take LSU!
|09-15-18||Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -14||17-22||Loss||-110||114 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -
I got no problem laying the two touchdowns with the Fighting Irish here at home against the Commodores. Notre Dame is coming off a less than impressive 24-16 win over Ball State last week, a game in which the Fighting Irish were favored to win by 33.5-points. On the flip side of this, Vanderbilt has been impressive in their 2-0 start, taking on Middle Tenn 35-7 as a 3.5-point favorite and Nevada 41-10 as a 10-point favorite.
What people are overlooking with Notre Dame's sluggish showing agains the Cardinals, is that was a massive letdown spot after that massive Week 1 game at home against Michigan. At the same time, that Ball State team was way undervalued coming into this season. They went just 2-10 last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries and they had 16 starters back.
As for Vanderbilt, we have seen this story before with this team. Last year everyone was talking about how they were going to give Alabama a run for their money at home after a 3-0 start, but they got annihilated 59-0. A lot of people are putting Notre Dame on upset alert and you can bet Brian Kelly will use that to have his team 100% locked in for this one and that should be all it takes for them to win here in a blowout. Take Notre Dame!
|09-15-18||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +18||37-27||Win||100||119 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
The public is going to be all over Oklahoma in this one and I believe the books have set the line here to where they feel ISU has a great shot at covering. The Sooners have looked good in blowout wins over FAU (63-14) and UCLA (49-21). The even bigger thing to why people are falling in love with this team, is Kyler Murray has played really well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield.
Murray is a good player, but he struggled with his accuracy at Texas A&M. I think after facing a couple of mediocre defenses, both at home, he's going to find things a lot more difficult against a good ISU defense in what will be quite the atmosphere at Jack Trice Stadium. This Cyclones fan base is extremely loyal and this is the one home game they have been looking forward to since the schedule was released.
Keep in mind Oklahoma just lost their top running back in running back Rodney Anderson and this Cyclones defense just held a good Iowa rushing attack to just 105 yards.
Sure there's the revenge angle for Oklahoma after ISU won 38-31 in Norman last year. The Sooners may very well get their revenge, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Cyclones pulled off the upset and won outright. Take Iowa State!
|09-13-18||Ravens v. Bengals +1.5||23-34||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
4* NFL AFC NORTH GAME OF THE WEEK on Bengals +
The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Baltimore couldn't have looked any better in their 47-3 blowout win in Week 1 over the Bills. Props to the Ravens for taking care of business at home, but Buffalo looks like the worst team in the NFL.
The Bengals also won in Week 1, as they went on the road and beat Andrew Luck and the Colts 34-23. Yet this is not a team that's getting a lot of love. Most just see that as Cincinnati beating a bad team, but that's much improved Indy team with Luck back under center. I love the fact that the Bengals are getting no respect for that win and in this game, as they are well aware of the Ravens being favored.
Baltimore is just 6-16 ATS in their last in their last 22 road games off a win by 21 or more points, while the Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning record and 18-7-2 over their last 27 games played in September. Take Cincinnati!
|09-13-18||Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5||41-34||Loss||-110||50 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +
There's just too much value here with the Demon Deacons catching almost a touchdown on their home field against their ACC Atlantic rivals in Boston College. The Eagles were expected to be much improved and have looked the part in blowout wins over UMass (55-21) and Holy Cross (62-14).
Wake Forest is another team people were high on coming into the year, as Dave Clawson has really done a nice job of turning the program around. However, I think a lot of people jumped off the bandwagon when projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton was suspended for the first 3 games. I think the book knew the public would be on BC and inflated the line knowing so.
This line suggest that BC would be a double-digit favorite over Wake on a neutral field and I'm just not buying it. The loss of Hilton has been eased by the emergence of true freshman Sam Hartman, who has completed 61.5% of his attempts for nearly 8 yards a pop. He's also proven a decent threat on the ground, rushing for 128 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and a score in 2 games.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Wake Forest won this game outright. The Demon Deacons are 22-12 ATS as an underdog under Clawson, 17-7 ATS under Clawson at home and 14-3 under Clawson when coming off a win by 21 or more points. Take Wake Forest!
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +5||33-13||Loss||-115||155 h 55 m||Show|
4* Rams/Raiders MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Raiders +
The public is all over the Rams in this one, as LA is the talk of the NFL after last year's breakout season and then all the big additions they made in the offseason. I'm not saying the Rams won't be a great team, but I think they could struggle early. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time for them to gel and learn how to play together. Keep in mind the Rams' starters basically didn't play at all in the preseason.
The Raiders on the other hand are a team that I believe will be coming into the season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving this team much of a shot, especially after they traded away one of the best defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack. I still got a lot of confidence in Gruden's ability as a head coach. He's going to bring a power-running game to Oakland, which I think will work wonders for getting Derek Carr back on track.
It's also worth pointing out that these Week 1 home dogs on Monday Night Football have not been great at just covering, but winning the game outright. Look for the Raiders to keep it close and potentially steal this one late. Take Oakland!
|09-09-18||Bengals v. Colts -3||Top||34-23||Loss||-105||482 h 27 m||Show|
5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts -
This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them.
The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense.
Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis!
|09-09-18||Bills +7.5 v. Ravens||Top||3-47||Loss||-110||134 h 50 m||Show|
5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills +
Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus.
All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio.
Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents.
Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo!
|09-09-18||49ers v. Vikings -6||16-24||Win||100||133 h 36 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings -
There's a lot of excitement around this 49ers team after how they finished the 2017 season once Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the starer. I just think it's a major overreaction and has San Francisco way overvalued to start out 2018. I certainly don't see them extending that win streak on the road against one of the elite teams in the NFC.
You can be sure the Vikings have heard all the hype around Garoppolo and that 49ers team. Not that you need any extra fuel for a season-opener, but I think Minnesota will be out to make a statement in this one. Keep in mind the Vikings have 10 starters back from a defense that was the best in the NFL last year. They were No. 1 in total defense (275.9 ypg) and No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ypg). Not to mention the one starter they lost was defensive tackle Tom Johnson and they replaced him with a former Pro Bowler in Sheldon Richardson.
It's also worth pointing out that Minnesota's defense only gave up 13.8 ppg and 261 ypg at home last year, where they went 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS.
I also don't think the 49ers defense will be able to slow down the Vikings new look offense that now has Kirk Cousins as their starting QB. I look for home team to pull away early and win here by double-digits. Take Minnesota!
|09-09-18||Bucs +10 v. Saints||48-40||Win||100||131 h 21 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bucs +
The Saints are getting way too much love here from the books in Week 1. I get New Orleans is great at home and are considered a legit Super Bowl contender, but no way should they be laying double-digits against a division rival.
Tampa Bay will be without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who is suspended, but I think this team will be able to move the ball behind talented veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a 7-3 TD-INT ratio in limited action last year. He's got two big time weapons at wide receiver in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, plus two talented tight ends in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard.
I also think people are overlooking this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are loaded up front after bringing in Jason Pierre-Paul to team up with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. I'm not saying they are going to shutdown Brees and the Saints offense, but I think they get enough stops to keep it close. Take Tampa Bay!
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants +3||20-15||Loss||-100||122 h 41 m||Show|
3* NFL Week 1 ATS SHOCKER on Giants +
I think we are seeing a big overreaction with this line based on how these teams finished up last season. The Jaguars finally broke through in 2017, winning the AFC South and nearly took out the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Giants were a complete mess and finished just 3-13, but are primed for a big bounce back season and should not be a dog at home.
Everyone is expecting the Giants offense to be improved with a healthy OBJ and the addition of prized rookie running back Saquon Barkley, but it's more than that. They also made some big improvements on the offensive line. New head coach Pat Shurmur is also one of the top offensive minds in the league and was the guy responsible for making Case Keenum look like a top tier signal caller last year with the Vikings.
The improved running game is going to do wonders for the Giants defense, who I think will thrive in their new 3-4 look. They should be able to hold their own against a very average Jaguars offense, which is still going to be limited by quarterback Blake Bortles. Take New York!
|09-08-18||Rice +18 v. Hawaii||29-43||Win||100||65 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Rice +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises in the early goings of 2018. The Rainbow Warriors went on the road in Week Zero and took out Colorado State 43-34 as a 17-point dog. They then came back and knocked off Navy 59-41 as a 13.5-point dog. Two outright wins as a double-digit dogs will definitely get the attention of the books and now we see Hawaii laying 3 scores against Rice at home.
I think this is a huge overreaction and it's a lot different going into the fight as the heavy favorite compared to the underdog. A lot of people will just expect them to keep it going against a Rice team went 1-11 last year, especially after the Owns barely snuck by Priarie View in their opener 31-28 and lost at home to Houston 27-45.
I was actually really impressed with how well Rice played against a good Houston team. The Owls were in that game late and actually led 27-17 midway through the 3rd quarter. They put up 439 yards against a talented Houston defense. It looks like they have found something in Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage, who was 20 of 31 for 204 yards and 3 scores against the Cougars.
Hawaii is going to put up points with that air-raid offense, but they are also going to give up a lot of points. They allowed 34 to Colorado State and 41 to Navy. Note that Colorado State managed just 13 points and 284 total yards in their next game against Colorado. If the Warriors aren't careful, they could go from winning as a double-digit dog to losing as a double-digit favorite. Take Rice!
|09-08-18||Michigan State v. Arizona State +7||13-16||Win||100||95 h 12 m||Show|
4* Prime-Time (ESPN) GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
A lot of people are going to be quick to make excuses for Michigan State and their sloppy showing in their home opener against Utah State, where they were fortunate to walk away with a 38-31 win as a massive 23.5-point favorite. They will say the Spartans are slow-starters and didn't give the Aggies their full attention with this big game on deck. I'm not buying it.
I expect another sloppy showing from Michigan State. People don't realize how hard it is for these midwest teams to travel out west and the Big Ten has had more than their fair share of troubles when having to play on the road against the Pac-12.
You also can't ignore how good the Sun Devils looked in their opener against UTSA, which was also the debut for new head coach Herm Edwards. Not many people were high on Arizona State going into this season and I think that lack of respect has this team playing hungry and flying way under the radar. They demolished the Roadrunners 49-7, while outgaining UTSA by 283 yards. The defense allowed a mere 2 rushing yards on 34 attempts and forced 3 turnovers.
If they can slow down Michigan State's running game, which struggled to get going against Utah St, they not only will cover this spread, but they will win the game outright. Take Arizona State!
|09-08-18||UTEP +24 v. UNLV||Top||24-52||Loss||-111||103 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +
After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona.
What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been.
We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV!
|09-08-18||Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota||14-21||Loss||-115||60 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +
I expect the public to be all over Minnesota here, as they won't be able to help themselves but take a Big Ten team laying less than a field goal at home against a team from the MWC. Especially after the Gophers annihilated New Mexico State 48-10 as a 22.5-point favorite this past Saturday.
That performance against the Aggies is nothing to be excited about. New Mexico State is way down this year. They were missing a ton of starters on defense and that's the same offense that managed 135 total yards against Wyoming in 'Week Zero.' That same Wyoming defense gave up 41 points to a Washington State that only had 4 starters back on offense.
The other thing that stands out to me is the play of Gophers new true freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad. He threw for 220 yards and 2 scores, but was a mere 16 of 33 passing. Luckily Minnesota had their way on the ground (295 yards on 47 attempts).
The thing is, they aren't going to be able to run all over Fresno State. The Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a defense that only gave up 113 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry last year. Annexstad and the Gophers offense is going to be forced into a lot more passing situations and that's going to be a problem.
The Bulldogs put up 79 points in their opener against Idaho and should have one of their better offenses in recent memory with 8 starters back. I think they do more than enough here to get a win on the road against Minnesota.
Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-confernce games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Fresno State!
|09-08-18||Memphis -6.5 v. Navy||21-22||Loss||-110||88 h 58 m||Show|
4* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -
I don't see the Tigers having any problem here winning by at least double-digits on the road against Navy. I think a lot of people are sleeping on this Memphis team due to the fact that they lost a really good quarterback in Riley Ferguson, but look out for junior Brady White, who is a grad transfer from Arizona State (Memphis head coach Mike Norvell was the OC when White first started out with ASU).
I know it came against Mercer, but it's hard to ignore his stat line in the opener. White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and 5 scores. The Tigers also rushed for 324 yards. Keep in mind this is an offense that averaged 45.5 ppg and 532 ypg last year and 7 starters back.
The Midshipmen had no answer for Hawaii's high-flying offense in their opener, as the Rainbow Warriors put up 59 in an 18-point win as a 13.5-point dog. Hawaii's Cole McDonald completed 30 of 41 for 428 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Memphis has 8 starters back on defense in what is their 3rd season under defensive coordinator Chris Ball. They should be greatly improved on that side of the ball and they looked sharp in the opener, holding Mercer to just 174 total yards and 8 first downs. I think they are going to be ready for that triple-option and Navy is not a team that can play from behind. Take Memphis!
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +22.5||42-12||Loss||-110||60 h 19 m||Show|
3* TCU/SMU Friday Night ATS DESTROYER on SMU +
Analysis will be posted shortly
|09-06-18||Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles||Top||12-18||Loss||-119||217 h 36 m||Show|
5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons +
It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta.
Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center.
Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won.
I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta!
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||36 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Labor Day ATS NO-BRAINER on Va Tech +
Florida State is getting way too much respect here against the Hokies. The Seminoles took a turn for the worse in 2017, as they managed to go just 7-6 and were lucky to finish with a winning record after a dreadful 3-6 start. Most are just assuming that FSU will bounce back and return to elite status, but I don't think that's going to be the case.
Not to take anything away from Willie Taggart, but he's not on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. In fact, Taggart has a losing record at 47-50 over 8 seasons as a head coach. With a new head coach comes scheme changes and the players that are left over don't always fit the new systems.
I just have a lot more trust in Virginia Tech coming out and playing well. The Hokies will be in year 3 under head coach Justin Fuente and he backed up his 10-4 debut season with a 9-4 record in 2017. Va Tech's offense should be explosive with 7 starters back , including talented sophomore quarterback Joshua Jackson.
The Hokies do lose a lot defensively, but I don't think the drop off will be as big as some are expecting. FSU loses just as much defensively and I have a lot more confidence in Virginia Tech's offense being able to stay on the field and finish off drives with touchdowns. Take Virginia Tech!
|09-02-18||Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5||Top||17-33||Win||100||372 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +
I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away.
LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup.
I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU!
|09-01-18||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10||Top||7-33||Win||100||414 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -
Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC.
Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little.
This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory.
The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick).
While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10!
|09-01-18||West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5||40-14||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee +
To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons.
It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright.
A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee!
|08-30-18||Northwestern +3 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||100||96 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Limit PLAY OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +
The only real concern here with Northwestern is the health of starting quarterback Clayton Thorson, who is listed as questionable to play. While I can't guarantee he will play, I would absolutely shocked if Thorson wasn't out their for the Wildcats first series. He's been practicing in full for quite some time and the reports out of fall camp that he looks even better than he did before the injury.
I just don't see anyway that Northwestern loses this game with him on the field. Purdue has just 4 starters back on defense and that stop unit was the main reason they went 7-5 last year. While I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think, they aren't going to be as good as last year's squad and will struggle against talented teams like the Wildcats.
On the flip side of this, Northwestern has 7 staters back from a defense that held Purdue to just 13 points last year. I could see the Boilmakers putting up a few more points, but not near enough to give them a chance to win this game.
It's also worth noting that the Wildcats come into this game having covered 8 of their last 9 conference games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten road games and have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with Purdue. Take Northwestern!
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||41-33||Loss||-109||52 h 44 m||Show|
4* Patriots/Eagles 'Super Bowl 52' VEGAS INSIDER on Patriots -
I just think the value here is with the Patriots against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52. I know each of the previous Super Bowl trips for Belichick and Brady have resulted in close games and last year's OT win over the Falcons (6-points) was their largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl, but I just think the circumstances here are different.
This will be the first time during this run that the Patriots have gone up against a backup quarterback the caliber of Nick Foles, who I don't think is very good. Sure, Foles played well at home in the NFC Championship Game against the Vikings, but I think a lot of that had to do with Minnesota coming out flat off that miracle win the week before agains the Saints. Foles only guided the Eagles to 15-points in the previous game against the Falcons and I think we see their offense struggle to score against a Patriots defense that will be 100% prepared for what the Eagles like to do with 2-weeks to prepare. Take New England!
|01-14-18||Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers||Top||45-42||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars +
I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9.
Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season.
While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|01-13-18||Falcons -3 v. Eagles||10-15||Loss||-100||54 h 18 m||Show|
4* ATL/PHI Divisional Round NO BRAINER on Falcons -
My money is on the Falcons to go into Philadelphia and take care of business. I cashed on Atlanta last week when they went on the road and beat a very good Rams team as a 6-point dog. The Falcons didn't just sneak out a win, they dominated LA. I think we could see a similar type of lopsided affair here.
The Eagles might have the edge here in terms of rest, but I just don't think that makes up for the loss of Carson Wentz. Philadelphia continues to talk about how much the trust Nick Foles and how he's more comfortable in the offense. That doesn't change the fact that he's an average backup QB, replacing a legit MVP caliber player. We have seen just how different the offense looks since Wentz has went down and I don't think the bye week is going to help fix that.
The other big thing with Atlanta that gets overlooked is they played one of the toughest schedules in the league and on top of that had a huge target on their back from playing in the Super Bowl the year before. I think this is the team to beat in the NFC. You also have to factor in their edge in experience. This team knows what it takes to win this time of year and have proven they can do it. Take Atlanta!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia +5||Top||26-23||Win||100||146 h 31 m||Show|
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me.
Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good.
I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia!
|01-07-18||Panthers +7 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||50 h 5 m||Show|
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +
I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown.
Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg.
As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games.
It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina!
|01-06-18||Falcons +6 v. Rams||26-13||Win||100||30 h 30 m||Show|
4* ATL/LAR 'Wild Card' NO BRAINER on Falcons +
I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Rams. Atlanta didn't have the success in the regular season that most were expecting, but none of that matters now. What gets overlooked is just how hard it is for the team that lost the previous year's Super Bowl to simply get back in the postseason. This team can finally relax and I wouldn't be the least big surprised to see them win this game outright.
Not to take anything away from the Rams and what they were able to accomplish this season, but I have some big concerns with their ability to carry it over into the playoffs. One of the biggest advantages that the Falcons have in this matchup is experience. Simply put, I don't trust Goff to perform at the level needed for the Rams to win here via a blowout.
It's also worth noting that there's something about the NFC West that has brought out some of the best in the Falcons. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a team from this division and have won these contests by an average of 15.3 ppg. LA is also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Atlanta!
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||298 h 30 m||Show|
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -
I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game.
A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win.
There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama!
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||290 h 10 m||Show|
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +
I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team.
A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one.
Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida!
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -8||26-19||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -
I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh.
The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan!
|12-31-17||Panthers +4 v. Falcons||10-22||Loss||-110||105 h 31 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Carolina +
I like the value here with the Panthers catching over a field goal against the Falcons in Week 17. So much attention has been paid to the Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings in the NFC that the Panthers are somehow flying under the radar. Carolina got off to a bit of a slow start (just 4-3 in their first 7) as Cam Newton was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but this team has taken off since he's returned to 100% healthy. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, which includes a win over these Falcons and a win over the Vikings and Packers (Rodgers return game).
Atlanta needs to win this game to ensure a spot in the postseason, but you can't get caught up in teams in a "must-win" spot. Atlanta's offense got going in the middle portion of their schedule, but have really struggled here of late. The Falcons are only averaging 16.5 ppg over their last 4 games and now go up against one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina ranks 6th against the run (89.9 ypg) and are only giving up 208 ypg through the air on the road.
Panthers have thrived in the role of a road dog, as they are 77-54 ATS in their last 131 games when getting points away from home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Take Carolina!
|12-31-17||49ers v. Rams -1.5||34-13||Loss||-107||105 h 30 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rams -
I know the Rams aren't going to be playing a lot of their starters in this game, but I still like them to find a way to win at home against the 49ers. It's hard to believe that a team that started 0-9 is now the talk of the NFL, but with the play of Jimmy Garoppolo that's the case with San Francisco. I think it has the 49ers getting a little too much respect here in a division road game.
I'm not buying any talk of the Rams just laying down because there starters aren't playing. The guys that are playing are going to give it all they got. I also think the fact that LA isn't playing their starters take away some of the edge here for the 49ers, who were likely looking forward to using this game as a measuring stick going into next year. I think it could have San Francisco coming out flat and it will be hard for them to cover this spread if they don't take Los Angeles seriously.
49ers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game. San Francisco is also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams averaging 5.65 yards/play. Keep in mind that LA will still be running the same schemes offensively, even though the starters won't be playing much if at all. Take Los Angeles!
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||105 h 30 m||Show|
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +
I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts.
While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals.
Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright.
Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati!
|12-31-17||Bills v. Dolphins +3||22-16||Loss||-115||104 h 14 m||Show|
4* NFL Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +
The public is going to back Buffalo here for the simple fact that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and Miami is out of it. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The last thing any team wants to do is let one of their division rivals clinch a playoff spot by beating them, especially on their home field. Now I know the Bills need some other things to happen beside winning this game to get in, but I'm confident we are going to get a big time effort from the Dolphins in this spot. Keep in mind it was a 16-24 loss at Buffalo in Week 15 that put an end to Miami's playoff hopes.
Miami's defense played well in that game against the Bills a few weeks back, limiting them to just 328 yards. They were especially good at shutting down Buffalo's high-powered rushing attack, as the Bills had just 116 yards on 30 attempts.
The Dolphins have been a good bet at home against good teams, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Buffalo on the other hand is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami!
|12-31-17||Redskins v. Giants +3.5||10-18||Win||100||101 h 59 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Giants +
I like the value here with New York catching points at home against the Redskins in Week 17. The Giants come in off an embarrassing loss last week, where they were shutout by the Cardinals in a 24-0 defeat. I think we see a different NY team take the field in what will be their home finale. There's plenty of uncertainty with who is going to still be on the team next year and I think the players come together and do whatever it takes to get the win on Sunday.
I know the Giants are going to be down to the 3rd stringers at wide receiver, but this Redskins secondary has been atrocious on the road this season. Washington is giving up an average 259 yards/game and 7.9 yards/pass attempt away from home. They also give up 4.9 yards/carry and 150 yards/game on the ground. No surprise they have allowed 28.4 ppg on the road this season.
While the offense struggled in last week's game against Arizona, the defense played played really well. New York held the Cardinals to just 293 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. I think they can make things tuff here for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense. Note that Cousins has had trouble in his career against this Giants defense.
Lastly, I question how motivated Washington is really going to be for this game. It was clearly important to them to get a win in their home finale last week, but there's absolutely nothing to play for. A win over the Giants isn't going to do anything and they already beat this team once this season. I could see the players being more interested in getting this game over with and focusing on their New Year's plans. Take New York!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State -7||Top||7-24||Win||100||226 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention.
Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire.
For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State!
|12-28-17||Virginia v. Navy +1||7-49||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on Navy +
I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games.
The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite.
Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games.
This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy!
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||20-27||Win||100||32 h 10 m||Show|
4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.
At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa!
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State||Top||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 33 m||Show|
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion.
All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here.
The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|12-26-17||Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5||14-36||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke -
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest.
I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke!
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans +10||34-6||Loss||-115||126 h 57 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Texans MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Texans +
I think we are getting a great price here on the Texans at home in Monday's Christmas Day showdown against the Steelers. I know Houston played is coming off an ugly 7-45 loss at Jacksonville, but that wasn't a huge surprise given how limited the Texans are offensively and how good the Jaguars are defensively. I expect a much more motivated Houston team to take the field at home in a prime time game.
The biggest thing here isn't this is a horrible spot for the Steelers, who are coming off about as painful a loss as you can have in their 24-27 defeat at home to the Patriots, which likely cost them the No. 1 seed in the AFC. On top of that, they lost star wide out Antonio Brown to a calf injury. While they played well without him against New England, that's a massive loss. Brown was playing at an MVP level this season. At the same time, this Pittsburgh offense has a history of underperforming on the road (almost a TD less per game on the road compared to at home this season) and I think it could be in for a long day without Brown in this one.
Steelers are also just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points, while the Texans are a solid 22-10 ATS in their last 32 when coming off back-to-back games where they scored 17 or fewer points. Take Houston!
|12-24-17||Giants +3.5 v. Cardinals||0-23||Loss||-115||40 h 29 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Giants +
I just think there's too much value here with New York in this one. I know it's been a miserable season for the Giants, but I liked how they came out and competed last week against the Eagles. Most importantly, the offense finally showed us something, scoring 29 points with over 500 yards of total offense against a very good Eagles defense. Eli Manning had his best game of the season by far, throwing for 434 yards and 3 scores.
Arizona simply has no business laying more than a field goal in this matchup. While the Cardinals will get back Drew Stanton at quarterback, it's just a minor upgrade over Blaine Gabbert in my opinion. Stanton takes over an offense that hasn't scored a TD in 10 quarters and I wouldn't be shocked if they failed to score one here against a Giants team that I think has some new life now that they have parted ways with McAdoo.
We also have a strong system in play backing the Giants. Road underdogs who are a bad team that's being outscored by 4+ points/game on the season are 227-149 (60%) ATS after a loss by 6-points or less since 1983. Take New York!
Including Monday's winner with the 49'ers, Ben Burns was a SWEET 7-2 with his football, over Saturday/Sunday/Monday. For the month, his NFL is hitting a SCORCHING 70%. Next up is DENVER/ARIZONA, Thursday on FOX TV. Be there!