|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-08-18||Navy +7 v. Army||10-17||Push||0||29 h 1 m||Show|
3* Army/Navy No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Navy +
This is just too many points to pass up in one of college football's most storied rivalries. No question Army has had the better regular-season, as Navy didn't even qualify for a bowl. With that said, records mean nothing in a game like this. If anything, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule, so it's not as lopsided as you might think.
The biggest thing here with this touchdown spread is this game has been came right down to the wire each of the last two years. A big reason the games are competitive, is there's typically not a lot of scoring with two option teams. Not only does all that running eat up the clock, but these two teams are well-prepared defensively to defend the option.
Army has a bowl game against Houston to look forward to, while this is Navy's bowl game. I just think having lost the last two and being a dog in this fight for the first time in a long time, the Midshipmen aren't just a threat to cover, but win this game outright. Take Navy!
|12-01-18||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28||42-10||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +
This is just too much value to pass up on with the Panthers as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. Unlike some other teams playing this Saturday, Clemson doesn't need style points to get into the playoffs. All they have to do is win this game and they are in, so there's no incentive to turn this into a blowout.
I think that definitely favors Pitt keeping this close and I'm a bit shocked the Panthers are getting no respect here. They only lost by 5-points on the road against Notre Dame. I know the final score says they lost 51-6 to Penn State, but that was a 14-6 game at the half and not nearly as big a gap in talent as the final score would lead you to believe. I know they lost their last game against Miami, but they zero reason to show up with this game on deck (already had Coastal locked up).
Let's also not ignore the schedule for Clemson. The ACC was way down this year, so they had a lot of blowout wins. I think the 3 best teams they played were Texas A&M, Syracuse and Boston College. They beat the Aggies by just 2, were lucky to beat the Orange by 4 and only defeated the Eagles by 20. Take Pittsburgh!
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||40 h 39 m||Show|
4* Georgia/Alabama SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia +
This is the matchup everyone expected and I can't believe the value we are getting here with the Bulldogs. The media has claimed this Alabama team the winners of the national championship for months, but a two touchdown favorite on a neutral field against an elite team like Georgia is a direct result of the books inflating this number because of how good the Crimson Tide have been against the number and how much the public is going to flock to the No. 1 team in the country.
Georgia has been craving this opportunity since blowing that 2nd half lead to Alabama in last year's national championship game. I just don't see a lot different between the two teams. Much like last year when the Bulldogs laid an egg against Georgia, they had one this year at LSU. They have been 100% locked in since that loss to the Tigers and certainly have the talent to not just keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright.
Keep in mind that Alabama was a mere 3.5-point favorite in the title game a year ago and only won by 3 in OT. No question Georgia players are going to know the number here and I think that only adds more fuel to the fire. Bulldogs have a defense that can slow down the Crimson Tide and without question the best offense Alabama will have seen so far this year. Take Georgia!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||41-56||Loss||-115||5 h 57 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Memphis
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|12-01-18||Marshall v. Virginia Tech -4||Top||20-41||Win||100||97 h 0 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -
It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences.
The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home.
Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||30-29||Win||100||27 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Illinois +
Everyone is on Buffalo in this game, yet the line keeps dropping in favor of the Huskies. That's because the sharps know the wrong team is actually favored in this game. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and most will just assume a 10-win team with an offense that averages 35.2 ppg is going to easily cover a short number like this.
I just think that's a mistake. Northern Illinois is way better than their 7-5 record would lead you to believe. Their 4 non-conference games were against Iowa, Utah, FSU and BYU. The only two games they lost in MAC play were the final two after they had the division title locked up. This team has been eying the Bulls for weeks now and I think they have the talent on the defensive side of the ball to really make life tough on Buffalo.
We did just see an Ohio defense, that I have rated slightly worse than the Huskies, hold the Bulls to just 17 points and 277 total yards in a 52-17 win. I'm not saying it's going to be that lopsided, but I think worst case here this thing is decided by a field goal with the Huskies likely winning outright. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +11.5||24-17||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +
I really like the value here with USC as a double-digit home dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame needs here is a win here and they will secure a spot in the college football playoff. All the pressure is on the Irish and no one is giving the Trojans a chance here, especially off that ugly loss last week to UCLA.
I just think USC has had their eyes set on this game and the chance to spoil Notre Dame's perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. We have already seen the Trojans beat a top team at home, as they knocked off Washington State earlier this year. They have lost ta home to ASU and Cal, but both could have went either way. I'm not saying USC pulls off the upset, but I think they keep it within single digits at the Coliseum. Take USC +11.5!
|11-24-18||Kentucky v. Louisville +17.5||56-10||Loss||-109||82 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +
I like the value here with Louisville as a big home dog against in-state rival Kentucky. I know it hasn't been pretty for the Cardinals in 2018 and they just lost at home to NC State by 42 last week, but I think some of that poor showing was a result of this team looking ahead to this showdown with the Wildcats.
I think we get a huge effort here from Louisville as they try to not only send their seniors out on a positive note, but also to put some kind of positive note on this disaster of a season. The even bigger key here is I don't think Kentucky is in a really bad spot. I think for them, they felt their season came to and end with that home loss to Georgia, where a win would have put them in the SEC Championship Game.
Just zero incentive here for them in these final few games and it's shown with their play on the field. They lost outright at Tennessee 24-7 and then barely beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 as a 16.5-point favorite. This is a team that couldn't score even when they were playing well, but they aren't playing with the same energy and effort on defense, which is what I believe will keep them from covering this big number. Take Louisville!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on North Carolina +
I really like the value here with the Tar Heels as a decently priced home dog against in-state rival NC State. North Carolina comes into this game sitting at 2-8 and having lost 6 straight games in ACC play. While the losses have continued to pile up, the Tar Heels have been extremely competitive of late. Their last 5 losses are all by 10-points or less and they could have won all 5 of those games.
I expect this team to come out extremely motivated for this one. Not only are they going to want to play well in their final home game of the season, but they haven't beat NC State on their home field since 2012. Not to mention, the Wolfpack have won the last two in the series.
I just don't think this year's NC State is as good as people think and have no business here laying this big a number on the road. The Wolfpack just recently lost at home to Wake Forest 27-23 as a 18.5-point favorite and their only two wins in their last 5 games are against FSU and Louisville.
The most recent was a blowout win and cover at Louisville, but note that NC State is just 11-28 ATS in their last 39 off a conference road win. Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS last 29 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. Take North Carolina!
|11-24-18||Florida v. Florida State +7.5||41-14||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +
The Seminoles have won 5 straight in this series and while this season has been a huge disappointment, FSU showed it means something to get to a bowl with their strong showing last week in their upset win at home over Boston College.
While the Seminoles are going to lay it all on the line to get that 6th win an extend their season, there's not a ton here for the Gators to be excited about and this is definitely not a team you can trust laying a number like this. We recently saw them win by just 4 as a 6.5-point home favorite vs S Carolina. The week before that they lost 38-17 as a 4.5-point favorite agains Missouri.
Seminoles have covered 9 of their last 12 outside of conference, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the SEC. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a ATS cover. Take Florida State!
|11-23-18||Washington +3 v. Washington State||Top||28-15||Win||100||60 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +
The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less.
Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field.
I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington!
|11-23-18||Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 86||59-56||Loss||-105||14 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Oklahoma UNDER
I just think the there's too much value here with the UNDER at this number. I know these two teams have been a part of several Big 12 shootouts this year, but these two have to average more than 3 touchdowns (21.75 points) per quarter for this to go over the mark.
I just think when you factor in how big a game this, with a spot in the Big 12 Championship and maybe more with the playoffs if some other teams drop, chances are we aren't going to see 90 points on the scoreboard. Not to mention the game will be played in less than ideal conditions with temps in the mid 30's.
UNDER is 15-4 in West Virginia's last 19 games after scoring 31 or more in 4 straight and 14-5 in the Mountaineers 19 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen with a spread of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmaker ERROR on South Florida +
UCF is getting way too much respect here on the road against the Bulls. The Knights are fresh off a huge 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home, which locked up a spot in the AAC title game. They annihilated the spread in that game, as they went off as a mere 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side the Bulls come in having lost 4 straight. It all adds up to this inflated line we are seeing.
I not only think the Bulls can keep this within two touchdowns, but if a few breaks go there way, I could see them winning this game outright. USF has the speed on both sides of the ball to matchup with the Knights and most importantly have the talent offensively to keep pace with Milton and that UCF offense.
All the pressure is on the Knights in this one, while USF has absolutely nothing to lose, yet will be extremely motivated (has to feel like their Super Bowl) to put an end to this nation-long winning streak of UCF. Bulls did beat the Knights the last time UCF came to South Florida (last regular-season loss for UCF) and we have seen the Knights struggle away from home. They were extremely fortunate to win at Memphis earlier this year, escaping with a 31-30 win. I see a similar game here that's decided in the final minutes. Take South Florida!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13||35-3||Loss||-105||21 h 48 m||Show|
4* Miss St/Ole Miss Egg Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +
This is just too many points for the Rebels to be catching on their home field in a big rivalry game like this. Sure Mississippi State has the better record and are the more talented team, but you can throw out all the stats when referring to the Egg Bowl. Just last year the Rebels won 31-28 at Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog. The year before that the Bulldogs won 55-20 as a 10-point dog.
I'm not saying Ole Miss will win this game outright, but it definitely shouldn't surprise you if they do, especially with what's at stake and this being on their home field. The Rebels need a win here to become bowl eligible, as they sit at 5-6.
Playing on the road has definitely not been the strength of this Mississippi State team, as they are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS away from home. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs has been the inability of the offense to put up points. I know Ole Miss doesn't have the best of defenses, but this one they have to feel like they can at least make some stops against.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rebels have the playmakers on offense to score against this talented Mississippi State defense. Take Ole Miss!
|11-20-18||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan||21-28||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Illinois -
I think we are getting a solid price here on the Huskies due to the fact that people will assume they want nothing to do with this game having already locked up a spot in next week's MAC title game. I'm not buying that at all.
I think having lost last week at home to Miami will have this team locked in for this contest. Keep in mind that while they lost the RedHawks, their defense was outstanding, as Miami won the game on a pick-six.
If they play any kind of defense in this one, they should win here by double-digits rather easy, as Western Michigan has completely thrown in the towel on the defensive side of the ball. In the Broncos last 3 game they have allowed 42 to Ball State, 59 to Ohio and 51 to Toledo. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-17-18||Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt OVER 67.5||29-36||Loss||-109||34 h 7 m||Show|
3* OLE MISS/VANDY SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss/Vandy OVER
I don't think we are going to have any problem eclipsing the total in this one. Ole Miss is the ideal team for high-scoring games. They got a ton of talent offensively and play no defense. It's almost like they should be in the Big 12.
The Rebels come in having allowed 31 or more in each of their last 4 games. On the road this season, Ole Miss is allowing 35.7 ppg and 509 ypg, with teams averaging 252 yards rushing and another 257 through the air.
Vanderbilt is a team that has the potential to go off offensively. They had more than 460 yards last week at Missouri, but only 28 points to show for it. The Week before they hung 45 on Arkansas. They have scored 30+ in 4 games and will do so here. They also will give up 30+ in this one, as the only teams to slow down this Ole Miss offense are Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Four of the best defensive teams in the country. Take the OVER!
|11-17-18||Duke v. Clemson -27||6-35||Win||100||105 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Clemson -
I'll lay the big number with the Tigers in this one. Clemson has covered 5 straight games and a lot of them haven't been close. They won by 61 as a 39-point favorite against Louisville a couple games back and fresh off a cover as a 17.5-point road favorite against a good Boston College team.
I think the fact that Duke comes in having won two straight including an upset win at Miami, people will talk themselves into the Blue Devils being able to keep this game close. I just don't see it. I think everyone talking about how Alabama is this unbeatable team and everyone else is just playing for 2nd has really lit a fire under this Clemson team.
Not only are they doing whatever they want offensively since inserting Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback, but the defense is playing up to their potential after a sluggish start to the season.
In their last 5 games combined they have given up 10 points in the 1st half of play and 7 of those came on a 74-yard punt return in last weeks game against BC. Might I mention those were the only points they gave up in that entire game. I don't see Duke getting more than 14 and the Tigers scoring fewer than 42. Take Clemson!
|11-17-18||Boston College v. Florida State +1||21-22||Win||102||20 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Seminoles at home against the Eagles. There's no denying it's been a miserable season for Florida State, but I think there's still some fight left in this team and they need to win their last 2 to become bowl eligible.
They couldn't be catching Boston College at a better time. The Eagles are in a massive letdown spot, as they come in off a huge showdown against Clemson, where if they would have won, they would be looking at a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Now there's nothing to play for but pride and I just don't see them being interested in this one. Take Florida State!
|11-17-18||USC v. UCLA +3||27-34||Win||106||30 h 9 m||Show|
3* USC/UCLA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +
The fact that the books are begging you to take USC, tells you all you need to know about what the right side is in this one. UCLA might be sitting at 2-8 and have lost 3 straight, but they aren't just playing for this season. This is year one under Chip Kelly and they need some positives to take into next year.
They have been a lot more competitive of late. While they lost 42-21 at Oregon, they actually outgained the Ducks 496 to 492 with 29 first downs to Oregon's 20. Last week they lost 31-28 at ASU were right there in total yards 480-439. I know USC is down, but getting a win over that program would be huge for Kelly in recruiting and I also think there's more drama going on behind the scenes at USC, as I think Clay Helton is about to get shown the door.
Bruins have gone an impressive 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off back-to-back conference losses where they allowed 31+ points and 9-1 in their last 10 after giving up 31+ points in 3 straight. Take UCLA!
|11-17-18||West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7||41-45||Win||100||18 h 40 m||Show|
3* W Virginia/OK State BIG 12 PLAY OF T DAY on Oklahoma State +
I like the Cowboys to keep this thing closer than expected, as I think they got a great shot of winning this thing outright. Oklahoma State nearly upset rival Oklahoma last week. I think the perception here is they are in-store for a letdown off that close loss to the Sooners.
I don't see that at all. I think this team will be extremely motivated to ruin the Mountaineers season and secure a bowl bid on their home field. West Virginia has all the pressure on them in this one and these late road trips are when we typically see some big upsets. I'm still not completely sold on this Mountaineers team. They were dominated in a loss at ISU and should of lost at Texas.
Cowboys are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 with a total of 63 or more and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after two straight games where 60+ points were scored. Take Oklahoma State!
|11-17-18||Penn State -27 v. Rutgers||Top||20-7||Loss||-110||86 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -
I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th.
I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games.
Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate.
Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State!
|11-17-18||Michigan State +1.5 v. Nebraska||6-9||Loss||-105||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* Nebraska/Mich St BIG 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
Great price here to back the Spartans on the road against the Cornhuskers. Michigan State has one of these best defenses in the country. The Spartans come in allowing 19.7 ppg and just 327 ypg. They are as good as it gets against the run, as they are giving up 2.5 yards/carry and a mere 76 yards/game.
That's should be the difference here. With winds expected to be blowing at close to 20 mph, it's going to be really hard for either team to establish anything in the passing game. That really negates the big play potential for this Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed at least 28 in every Big Ten game and are giving up 38.9 ppg in conference play. As poor as the Spartans are offensively, they will be able to score enough to get the win. Take Michigan State!
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||45-14||Loss||-110||32 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
There's too much value here to pass up with the Lobos as a near 3-touchdown dog on their home field. This is just a classic example of the nationally ranked and house hold name being overvalued in a prime time game.
Not the easiest of spots for the Broncos. Boise State is fresh off that huge win at home over Fresno State, where they went off as a dog. Now they got a massive game on deck against Utah State. I get they have to win this one for next week's to matter, but hard for them to not look ahead to that one.
Given that game on deck, you have to think they just want to get a win and get out. Once they get a comfortable lead, they are going to have to think about resting guys and making sure no one gets hurt. So if things do get out of hand, the backdoor should be open for the Lobos.
New Mexico played Boise tough on the road last year, losing by 14 as a 17-point dog. I get they are 3-7 and don't have bowl eligibility to play for, but teams in the MWC get up for Boise and they know what's at stake for the Broncos in this game.
Lobos come in having lost 5 straight and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games off 3 straight conference losses. We saw this exact same trend cash in their last home game in a cover against San Diego State. A team that beat Boise earlier this year. Take New Mexico!
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||38-41||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* FAU/N Texas NCAAF Weeknight DESTROYER on Florida Atlantic +
This North Texas team can't be trusted and are getting too much respect here against Lane Kiffin's Owls. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for FAU, but it's not as bad as you might think given their 5-5 record. Two of those losses were on the road against Oklahoma and UCF. They also lost by 1 at Middle Tenn and fell to quality teams in Marshall and La Tech.
Most are going to take North Texas here because the perception is that they will be out for revenge from last year's two losses to FAU, including the one most remember in the C-USA title game. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for the Mean Green, who just lost outright as a 15.5-point favorite to the Monarchs.
Owls on the other hand are coming in off arguably their best 2-game stretch of the season, as they went on the road and rolled FIU 49-14 and followed that up with a 34-15 win against WKU. I don't think it will be that lopsided against North Texas, but I do expect them to win this one outright. Take FAU!
|11-15-18||Tulane v. Houston OVER 67.5||17-48||Loss||-110||30 h 52 m||Show|
3* Tulane/Houston NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/Houston OVER
I just don't think these two teams are going to have any problem eclipsing what looks to be a high total. Houston's star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, who is a sure-fire Top 5 pick in next year's NFL draft is out with a knee injury and the defense has completely fell apart with him sidelined.
He's missed the last 3 games and in those contests the Cougars have allowed 36 to South Florida, 45 to SMU and 59 to Temple. Every one of those saw at least 76 combined points and you have to go back to a Oct. 13 game against East Carolina to find the last contest that Houston didn't combine for more than the total here.
Tulane has held 3 straight opponents under 20 points, but it's a bit misleading, as they gave up 450 yards last week to ECU and surrendered just 18 points. The previous week they gave up 442 to USF and they only finished with 15 points. Houston hasn't score less the 30 and have eclipsed 40 in all but one game this season. Take the OVER!
|11-14-18||Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois UNDER 48||13-7||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Miami-OH/Northern Illinois UNDER
I just don't think this is going to be a very entertaining game to watch and these two will struggle to come close to the total set by the books. For starters, the game-time temperature is executed to be around 25-degrees and it will only get colder. It's just not as easy to score when it's that cold, as the passing game and big chunk plays are limited.
For Northern Illinois this will be their final home game, so I expect a solid effort here on senior night. However, I do think some of the motivation here was lost with Western Michigan's loss to Ball State last night. With that defeat, the Huskies go from needing a win to lock up a spot in the MAC title to this game being more about pride.
As for Miami, they kept their bowl hopes alive last week in a 30-28 win over Ohio and with a a win here they got a good shot to reach 6-6, as they host Ball State in the finale. Expect a big effort here from the RedHawks in a low-scoring affair. Take the UNDER!
|11-13-18||Western Michigan -8.5 v. Ball State||41-42||Loss||-110||2 h 44 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Western Michigan
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-10-18||Clemson v. Boston College +20||27-7||Push||0||22 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +
I just think the price is right to take a shot on the Eagles here as a massive home dog. Clemson couldn't have looked much better since that scare against Syracuse at home. They beat Wake Forest 63-3, NC State 41-7, FSU 59-10 and Louisville 77-16. Impressive to say the least, but outside of the NC State game, those other 3 teams aren't very good and NC State just lost at home to the Demon Deacons with WF playing a backup QB.
Simply put, the ACC is way down this year, but Boston College is one of the better teams in this league. I think Chestnut Hill is one of the more difficult places to play in the ACC, especially when you got a good BC team hosting a top tier opponent like the Tigers. One thing is for sure, the Eagles are going to play their hearts out with a chance to potentially move into the drivers seat to the ACC Atlantic title.
I don't think that's going to happen, but with the way BC can run the football, they should be able to keep that Clemson offense off the field and I think the Eagles defense will be aided by mother nature, as temps will be in the high 30's with winds at close to 15 mph.
Wouldn't be the first time the books have undervalued BC. Eagles are 15-6 ATS last 21 games overall, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover and 11-1 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take Boston College!
|11-10-18||Florida State +18 v. Notre Dame||13-42||Loss||-105||59 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF NON-CONF (FSU/ND) GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
As difficult as it might be to take Florida State, I really like the Seminoles to give the Irish a major scare on Saturday. Not only is Notre Dame starting to feel the pressure of each game down the stretch, but now they have to play without starting quarterback Ian Book, who is dealing with a rib injury.
It will be back to Brandon Wimbush for the Notre Dame offense and while he's experienced and fully capable of guiding this team to a victory, the offense won't be as potent with him under center. While the Irish have everything to lose, FSU has nothing to lose at this point and that makes them a dangerous team. Expect them to go for it on 4th down and toss in a few trick plays to try and pull off the upset and keep slim homes of making a bowl game alive.
Irish have historically struggled against the number this time of the year. Notre Dame is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games in the month of November and 7-18-1 in their last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Look for the Seminoles to keep it closer than expected. Take Florida State!
|11-10-18||Temple +4.5 v. Houston||59-49||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +
I like the value here with Temple as a dog against the Cougars. I think people are just assuming that the Owls aren't going to show up for this one off that heartbreaking loss at UCF. At the same time, they are writing off Houston's ugly 45-31 loss at SMU as a bad showing in a game they didn't have to win (still control their own destiny for ACC West title).
I just think the books are begging for you to take Houston in this one, when Temple might be the better team. The Owls have been a different team since their 0-2 start and are 5-2 in their last 7 with their only losses AT BC and UCF. I think the defense for Temple can slow down this Cougars attack and the Owls will be able to move the ball against a Houston defense that has allowed 35+ in each of their last 3 games.
Owls are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 conference games, 13-5 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 41-19 in their last 60 road games and 21-7 ATS last 28 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -4||25-32||Win||100||43 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Utes as a small home favorite against the Ducks. I know Utah is coming off a loss at ASU and in the defeat lost starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and then later in the week saw leading rusher Zack Moss go down to a season-ending injury. Even with those two big injuries, I like Utah to win this game and cover at home.
Oregon had everything in front of them when they pulled off the big upset win at home over Washington, but the Ducks lost the next week at Washington State and just haven't been the same. They followed up the loss to the Cougars with an awful 44-15 loss at Arizona and while the rebounded with a 42-21 win at home against UCLA, they had 9 fewer first downs than the Bruins and UCLA outgained the Ducks 496-492.
Utah backup quarterback Jason Shelly didn't look great in relief against the Sun Devils, but that was on the road against a good defense and he was pressed into a tough spot playing from behind. Oregon doesn't pose near the threat defensively and he'll be much better prepared. There's also still a lot still at stake for Utah, who is sitting tied on top the Pac-12 South at 4-3 with USC and Arizona.
Ducks are 2-10 ATS last 12 conference road games and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after playing 3 straight conference games (later in the year). Oregon is also a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 off a home win and 0-7 off a win by 21 or more. Take Utah!
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||53 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +
It would be easy to want to jump on Alabama here after watching them go into LSU and beat the No. 3 team in the country 29-0 with a 576 to 196 edge in total yards and 29 first downs to the Tigers 13. I just think people don't understand how difficult it is to play after investing so much in the game the previous week, especially this late in the year.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban has came out and said just how much that game against LSU meant to him and his team and how hard it will be for them to emotionally get up for the Bulldogs. They have traditionally played Mississippi State after facing LSU. That was the case last year and they were fortunate to win. They were down 7 in the 4th quarter and won the game on a TD with 25 seconds to play.
While the Bulldogs are 7-3 and sitting at No. 16 in the country, they haven't been as good as some people expected, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The defense has been out of this world good. Mississippi State has allowed more than 20 points once all season and that was more a result of the offense putting the defense in a bad spot.
With no shot at winning the conference and a bowl game already locked up, this is the Bulldogs Super Bowl of 2018. I don't know if they have enough offense to pull it off, but I love them to keep it within the number. Take Mississippi State!
|11-10-18||TCU +12.5 v. West Virginia||Top||10-47||Loss||-105||75 h 18 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU +
No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it.
Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight.
The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively.
The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU!
|11-10-18||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||26-6||Loss||-105||14 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
I'm going to grab the points here with the Spartans at home. Everyone just keeps assuming Ohio State is going to morph into this different team when they haven't played well in quite some time. I think they fooled some people with wins over TCU and Penn State, two games they could have easily lost. They didn't play well at home against Minnesota, got annihilated at Purdue and barely held on to beat a 1-win Nebraska team everyone thought they would destroy (17-point favorite).
Now they are laying points on the road against a Michigan State team that really thrives in the underdog role, especially at home. I know they lost as a home dog to Michigan a few weeks back, but I think the Wolverines are way better than the Buckeyes. These two teams have played 3 common opponents in league play. Michigan State is 3-0 and Ohio State is 2-1. Spartans have allowed 17.0 ppg and Buckeyes 33.7 ppg.
Not to mention the extra motivation that the Spartans are going to have after last year's embarrassing 48-3 loss at Ohio State. I'll take the points as insurance, but I like home dog to win outright. Take Michigan State!
|11-09-18||Louisville v. Syracuse -20||23-54||Win||100||58 h 17 m||Show|
4* Friday Night ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -
This one is pretty straight forward. Only one of these teams is interested in playing football in the final month of the season. Louisville has hit rock bottom following the departure of Lamar Jackson and it feels like the team has quit on head coach Bobby Petrinio.
The Cardinals haven't won a game since beating WKU by a mere 3-points as a 23.5-point favorite in the middle of September. They are an atrocious 1-8 ATS this season, as the books just can't give them enough points. A true sign of a team not caring is defense and Louisville is allowing a ridiculous 48.7 ppg and 501.2 ypg in ACC play, where they are getting outscored by more than 27 ppg.
I just think with how potent the Orange are offensively and the defense figuring to play well in front of a rowdy home crowd for a prime time game, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. Don't think for a second Dino Babers and his players haven't forgot about how this series has gone the last two years. Louisville whooped them 62-28 on their home field in 2016 and last year beat by 46. Take Syracuse!
|11-08-18||Wake Forest v. NC State UNDER 70||27-23||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
4* Thursday Night NCAAF Over/Under KNOCKOUT on Wake Forest/NC State UNDER
Too much value here with the UNDER to pass up. The books have inflated this number quite a bit with it being a prime time game and the public sure to come in on the OVER with how these teams have looked recently.
Wake Forest combined for 91 at Louisville a couple weeks back and 65 last week with Syracuse. NC State's last two have seen them combine for 91 with Syracuse and 75 with FSU.
I just don't think we are going to get enough scoring from both sides to eclipse the mark here. Wake Forest lost starting quarterback Sam Hartman and have had less than a handful of games to get red-shirt sophomore Jamie Newman ready for action. Newman has seen the field some, but hasn't exactly impressed.
With how good NC State is against the run, I don't think Wake will be able to sustain enough drives to score the number of points needed to push this over. If the Demon Deacons don't score and the Wolfpack get up big, they will likely take their foot off the gas and look to play a lot of seniors, who maybe don't get to see the field a lot (senior night).
UNDER is also 13-3 in NC State's last 16 off a home conference win, 12-4 in their last 16 vs a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 vs teams who can't stop the run (allowing 200+ ypc). Take the UNDER!
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3.5||15-38||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Northern Illinois
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-06-18||Kent State v. Buffalo UNDER 44||14-48||Loss||-105||8 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tues. Night MAC Total NO-BRAINER on Kent State/Buffalo UNDER
A lot of people are going to look and see that Buffalo is averaging 34.9 ppg and are fresh off a 51-point outburst against a good Miami, OH team and instantly want to take the OVER at this number, especially seeing that Kent State just played in a game against Bowling Green that saw a combined 63 points scored.
What they will fail to notice is that the conditions here are going to be miserable. Wins are expected to be blowing at close to 30 mph and there's a chance it could rain on top of that. That's going to all but negate the passing games for both teams and really make it hard to just get first downs.
Buffalo is just going to do whatever it takes to get the win and aren't going to be interested in keeping their starters in with a massive game on deck against Ohio (win and the lock up a spot in MAC Championship Game). Take the UNDER!
|11-04-18||Utah State v. Hawaii +18||56-17||Loss||-109||2 h 32 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Hawaii
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -23.5||3-45||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY Mississippi State -
I think a lot of people will consider grabbing the points with Louisiana Tech, as they are going to feel like this is a big trap game for the Bulldogs. Technically speaking it is, as Mississippi State is off the big home win over Texas A&M and has a game at Alabama on deck next Saturday. I just don't think a less than 100% Bulldogs team can win here by at least 4 touchdowns.
A lot of people will point to how well La Tech played in their near upset win over LSU earlier this season, but that's the exact reason why I don't think Mississippi State is going to take this team lightly. Keep in mind LSU was up 24-0 midway thru the 3rd quarter before taking their foot completely off the gas.
I also think the fact that the Bulldogs had lost 3 of their previous 4 before beating Texas A&M, is another reason why they will show up here. It's fun beating up on lessor competition, especially when things aren't going your way. I think the offense is desperate to have one of those breakout games where they score 50+ points and that defense front should make life miserable for the visiting Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!
|11-03-18||Utah v. Arizona State +7.5||20-38||Win||100||81 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
Utah is simply getting way too much love right now. The Utes have won and covered 4 straight. The books have taken notice and really inflated this line, as there's no way Utah should be laying over a touchdown on the road to Arizona State.
The Sun Devils have been hit or miss, but they come into this one off a 3-point win at USC as a 3-point dog. They are just 2-4 in their last 6 games, but all 4 losses have come by a touchdown or less. It's also been a brutal stretch, as they have hosted Michigan State and Stanford, while playing no the road against the likes of San Diego St, Washington, Colorado and USC.
I like this Utah team, but I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on this team. The win at Stanford was impressive, but they also caught the Cardinal off back-to-back massive road games against Oregon and Notre Dame. The other 3 wins were at home against Arizona and USC and at UCLA. This team lost by 14 at Washington, barely beat Northern Illinois on the road and lost at Washington State.
I think Arizona State has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Sun Devils are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against strong defensive teams like Utah, who allow 4.5 or less yards/play and have won these games outright by an average score of 31-24. Take Arizona State!
|11-03-18||Kansas State +8.5 v. TCU||13-14||Win||115||22 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas State +
I just think there's way too much wrong with this TCU team for them to be laying over a touchdown to anyone in the Big 12. I get Kansas State isn't that good, but the Horned Frogs just lost to Kansas. The only way a Gary Patterson coached team loses to a team like Kansas, is the players have given up on themselves and each other.
It's not easy for these kids to keep fighting when things go so badly, especially when the expectations are so high coming into the year. TCU played in the Big 12 title last year and they were thinking conference title. They go into November not even remotely in the conversation. They haven't covered since Sept. 7th at SMU. Now is not the time to play the due factor with this team. They might win, but I'm confident it will be by 7 or less if they do. Take Kansas State!
|11-03-18||UL-Lafayette +10 v. Troy||16-26||Push||0||22 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Line MISTAKE on Lafayette +
Great value here with the Ragin' Cajuns as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. Lafayette has been playing well. They have won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming on the road against App State by a final of just 27-17.
They more than showed they could hang with the top tier talent in this league. Keep in mind with their 4-4 overall record. They played Alabama and Mississippi State on the road and happened to lose the game in between those two SEC powers to Costal Carolina (by only 2).
Troy's a good team, but this is too many points for them to be laying in this spot. While this game could have a big impact on the Sun Belt race, it's going to be hard for Troy to not look ahead to next week's showdown at Georgia Southern. A game they have to feel like they have to win to have any real shot at the East Division title.
I think this is going to be a very competitive game that's decided late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Ragin' Cajuns won here outright. Take Lafayette!
|11-03-18||Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe +7.5||25-44||Win||100||23 h 31 m||Show|
3* Group of 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe +
Hard to not like the value here with the Warhawks getting over a touchdown at home against the Eagles. The public doesn't follow the Sun Belt closely, but most average fans are aware of the fact that Georgia Southern knocked off then No. 25 Appalachian State last week. The Eagles didn't just win, they dominated 34-14 as a 11-point dog.
I think people have a hard time not betting teams off a big upset win, especially at what to them looks like a favorable price. Not to mention the Eagles have gone 7-1 ATS on the season. The books set a bad line last week on Georgia Southern and have made up for it here.
This is a big sandwich game for Georgia Southern, not only are they off the big win over App State, but they have a massive game on deck against Troy that they have to win. A loss here and a win over Troy they still control their own destiny for the East title and spot in the Sun Belt title game. I think the Warhawks win this one outright. Take ULM +7.5!
|11-03-18||Oklahoma State v. Baylor +7||31-35||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +
I think this is the prime spot to fade Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are fresh off that upset win at home against Texas. They put everything they had into that game. Now they are a touchdown favorite on the road to a Baylor team that was just annihilated by West Virginia last week 58-14. A game a lot of people watched, with it being a weekday matchup.
I think those two outcomes have created amazing value on the Bears, who I think are going to win this game outright. Baylor is much-improved over last year and just a couple weeks ago they nearly knocked off Texas on the road. As for Oklahoma State, this team has disappointed more than it's flashed what we saw against the Longhorns. The week before they got rolled 31-12 at Kansas State and have lost at home to ISU and Texas Tech.
I like Baylor head coach Matt Rhule and believe it's going to be just another year or two before he's got this team competing at the top of this conference. I'm willing to bet he has his team fired up after that ugly performance and I just don't see the Cowboys being able to match that intensity on the road, especially with a certain in-state rival on deck named Oklahoma. Take Baylor!
|11-03-18||Rutgers v. Wisconsin -28.5||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||48 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin -
I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it.
Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener.
I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland.
Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-18||Nebraska +18 v. Ohio State||31-36||Win||100||48 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Power 5 Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +
I think the perception here is that Ohio State is going to return from their bye week and take out all their frustration from that ugly loss at Purdue on Nebraska. I would expect Ohio State to win this game, but I don't see them pulling away by more than 3 scores.
I know it was a struggle for Nebraska to win a game, but they have really played well in several games. Prior to getting that elusive first win over Minnesota, they blew a late lead in a 34-31 loss at Northwestern and they covered as 18.5-point dogs in a loss at Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers are also coming out of their bye and while this is a must-win for Ohio State if they want to have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten East and making the playoffs, I think it will be hard for them to take this Nebraska team seriously and not look ahead just a little to next week's game at Michigan State.
Keep in mind it wasn't just one bad game at Purdue. Ohio State didn't look all that great in their previous game at home against Minnesota, winning by a final score of 30-14 as a 29-point favorite. They haven't covered a game since beating Tulane 49-6 back in late September.
Over the last 5 seasons, home teams that lost by 28 or more points to the spread in their previous game are a mere 6-28 (18%) ATS in weeks 10 through 13. Take Nebraska!
|11-03-18||South Carolina v. Ole Miss +1||48-44||Loss||-100||20 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss
I like the value here with Ole Miss as a home dog to the Gamecocks. I know it's basically a pick'em but don't think for a second the Rebels don't know who is favored to win. I just think Ole Miss is better than they get credit for and should be at least a field goal favorite here against South Carolina.
The Gamecocks barely won at home last week against Tennessee and really haven't lived up to their expectations. They came into this season thinking SEC East title. That's pretty much out the window and I think for them it's now all about the two big road games to end the season with Florida and Clemson. The Gators are up next week and I think South Carolina has a hard time matching the intensity of the Rebels.
Fading the Gamecocks off a win has been very profitable. South Carolina is 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Look for them to make it 0-6 after Saturday. Take Ole Miss!
|11-03-18||Syracuse -4.5 v. Wake Forest||41-24||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SMASH on Syracuse -
I think we are getting a great price here to back Syracuse. This has already been a special season for the Orange. They have secured their first bowl bid since 2013 and are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2001.
They are 6-2 and have to be thinking double-digit wins right now. I just don't see them laying an egg here against Wake Forest and I feel like that's the only way they don't win by at least a touchdown. Don't be fooled by the Demon Deacons 56-35 win at Louisville last week. The Cardinals are trash and playing like it. This is still the same team that lost 63-3 at home to Clemson, lost by 21 to an awful FSU team and lost by double-digits at home to BC.
The defense has been a major problem for Wake and will be picked apart by Eric Dungey and this Orange offense that has put up 91 in their last 2 games. Demon Deacons won't be able to keep pace. Take Syracuse!
|11-03-18||Michigan State v. Maryland +3||24-3||Loss||-100||2 h 52 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Maryland
|11-01-18||Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 62||40-52||Loss||-110||21 h 41 m||Show|
3* Temple/UCF NCAAF PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple UNDER
I don't see any way these two teams combine for more than 60 points. These are two of the top defensive teams in the ACC. UCF is only giving up 19.2 ppg in conference play and the Owls are allowing just 14.2.
The biggest key here is this Temple defense has the talent and speed to contain this high-powered UCF offense. The Owls are 25th in the country this season, giving up just 330 yards/game, while also holding teams to just 4.2 yards/carry.
On top of that star quarterback McKenzie Milton is dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss UCF's last game. While he likely plays, he might not pose near the threat running if it's not 100%.
Temple may once again be without star running back Ryquell Armstead and the offense hasn't been the same the last two games without him. Even if he does return, it's unlikely the Owls will put up a big number on the road against this UCF defense. Take the UNDER!
|11-01-18||Temple +12 v. Central Florida||40-52||Push||0||5 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Temple
|10-31-18||Ball State +18 v. Toledo||13-45||Loss||-100||29 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State +
I like the value here with the Cardinals as a 3-score underdog against the Rockets. Ball State is getting zero respect here from the books and a big reason for that is the injury to starting quarterback Riley Neal, who will not play in this one. That's a big loss for Ball State, but they got a capable backup in Drew Plitt, who has played in 4 games and flashed some potential.
I could see why you would hesitate to take the Cardinals if Toledo featured a great defense, but the Rockets have been pretty bad on that side of the ball this year. Toledo is 98th in the country against the run (186.4 ypg) and 112th against the pass (273.4 ypg). Not only should Ball State be able to score early and often, but if they do struggle, the backdoor figures to be wide open for a late cover.
I also think the injury to Neal could make it difficult for Toledo to give this Cardinals team their full attention. They have to feel like all they have to do is show up to get the win and making it even harder to give Ball State their full attention is a massive game on deck against Northern Illinois, which they need to win to have any shot at defending their MAC West title.
Cardinals have had a lot of success against the number at the Glass Bowl, as they have covered 7 of their last 10 visits to Toledo. The Rockets are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they scored 40+ points. Take Ball State!
|10-30-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo||42-51||Loss||-104||19 h 24 m||Show|
4* Miami/Buffalo MAC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +
Buffalo is getting way to much respect here at home against a good Miami team. Don't be fooled by the RedHawks 3-5 record. They went 0-4 in non-conference play, losing to the likes of Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only loss inside conference play is a mere 1-point defeat at home to Western Michigan.
This team has been extremely undervalued since their 0-3 start and since losing their first 3, they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. The thing is Buffalo has been even better. The Bulls are 7-1 overall and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7. The public is fully on board with this team and to them it's not asking a lot to win by at least a touchdown.
I not only think the Bulls will struggle to cover this number, but I could easily see the RedHawks winning this game outright. These two teams have played two common opponents and Miami has looked better in each. The RedHawks went on the road and beat Akron 41-17, Buffalo only beat them 24-6 at home. Miami lost in overtime at Army 31-30 and the Bulls lost at home to the Black Knights 42-13.
I just think these are two very evenly matched teams, much more so than this spread would suggest. RedHawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Miami!
|10-27-18||Tennessee +8 v. South Carolina||24-27||Win||105||44 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Tennessee +
I really like this spot with the Volunteers getting more than a touchdown against South Carolina. Last time out Tennessee got annihilated by Alabama 58-21, failing to cover as a massive 29-point dog. The thing is, prior to that we saw this team upset Auburn 30-24 on the road in easily the biggest win for first year head coach Jeremy Pruitt.
I just think that this team really gained a lot of confidence from that win over Auburn and will be eager to get back on the field after getting annihilated by the Crimson Tide. Keep in mind that Tennessee has played a brutal schedule. Five of their first seven opponents have been West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama.
South Carolina is a quality team, but I think they are more in the class of like Auburn than they are the elite SEC teams, such as LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols aren't just capable of keeping it close enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.
They have covered 30 of their last 45 road games in the month of October and are an impressive 32-16 in their last 48 off a SU loss and 16-5 in their last 21 road games off a conference loss by 10 or more. Take Tennessee!
|10-27-18||UNLV v. San Jose State -2.5||37-50||Win||100||56 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on San Jose State -
The simple fact that San Jose State is favored to win this game is really all you need to know to why this is the right side. The Spartans haven't won a game (0-7), yet are laying points to a UNLV team that has a couple of wins under their resume.
I just think this is the ideal spot to jump on San Jose State. This team is going to put everything they have into winning this game, as it's arguably their last realistic shot at win this season. They only have 4 more to play and 3 of those are on the road and the lone home game is against Fresno State.
UNLV is definitely a team they can not just beat, but win going away against. The Rebels only two wins are against UTEP, who might be the worst FBS program in the country and FCS foe Prairie View. San Jose State has also been close in several games, as 3 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less and they just lost by a mere 3-points at San Diego State as a 25-point dog.
Rebels are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 4-15 in their last 19 on the road when the team they are playing has won fewer than 25% of their games, losing outright by more than 10 points/game. Take San Jose State!
|10-27-18||Kentucky +7.5 v. Missouri||15-14||Win||100||55 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Kentucky has failed to cover their last two games and were a big disappointment to a lot of people in last week's mere 14-7 win over Vanderbilt at home. I think it has them way undervalued here against a Missouri team that I feel lis getting way too much respect.
The Tigers come in off an impressive 65-33 win over Memphis, but it just feels like more of the same, where Missouri rolls the teams it's suppose to beat and struggles against the better opponents they play. We saw this team manage just 10 points the previous week against Alabama and this Kentucky defense is no joke.
The Wildcats are 12th in the country, giving up just 302 ypg. They are 17th against the run, giving up just 112 ypg and are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams that average 4.9. Everyone thinks of Missouri as this pass-happy team, but they are averaging 42 rush attempts and 200 yards/game on the ground. When they struggle to run the football, the offense struggles to score.
Not only do I think Kentucky can slow down the Tigers offense, but this Missouri defense is one that a limited Wildcats offense can have success against. Tigers rank 92nd in the country, giving up 419 ypg. The passing game is the biggest weakness for Kentucky, but they should have success thru the air agains this Missouri secondary, which ranks 122nd, allowing 287.4 ypg.
Wildcats not only have the ability to keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Kentucky!
|10-27-18||Arizona State v. USC UNDER 54.5||Top||38-35||Loss||-110||40 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Arizona State/USC UNDER
The books have completely missed the mark with the total they have set for Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between USC and Arizona State. This thing has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it.
Arizona State comes in averaging 27.4 ppg, but that's a misleading number, as they scored 49 against a bad UTSA team at home and 52 against Oregon State. Those are the only two games all season in which they have scored more than 21 points.
USC's defense isn't as dominant as it has been in the past, but it should have no problem keeping the Sun Devils in check, especially at home.
They key here is the Trojans offense also figures to be limited. Starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play, as he hasn't cleared the concussion protocol. Backup, Matt Fink is also not available with a rib injury.
Red-shirt freshman, Jack Sears, will start if Daniels can't go and he's not attempted a single pass at the collegiate level. USC will be a lot more simple with their offensive attack and try to keep Sears from having to do too much in his first start, which likely means a lot of running the football.
UNDER is 7-0 in USC's last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards and 21-7-1 in their last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record. UNDER is also 4-1 in Arizona State's last 5 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|10-27-18||Arizona State v. USC -3.5||38-35||Loss||-105||38 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on USC -
I think we are getting a great price here on USC as a small home favorite against the Sun Devils. The Trojans have a disappointing 4-3 record based on their standards, but it's really not a surprise given how young they are on the offensive side of the ball and the schedule they have had to play.
USC's 3 losses have all come on the road against teams who are currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Texas (6), Stanford (24) and Utah (23). They are a perfect 3-0 at home, which includes impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State.
This Arizona State team is better than I think people expected in year one under Herm Edwards, but they have lost 4 of their last 5 and the offense continues to struggle to produce at a high enough level to win games against good teams. They only managed 13-points at home last time out in a loss to Stanford and have scored 21 or fewer in 5 of their last 6.
The big concern here with USC is that starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play because of a concussion. I think that's definitely helping the number here, but I don't think the injury really makes a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Jack Sears will start if Daniels can't go and while he's not attempted a pass at the college level, he was highly touted out of high school and has been with the program for two years. I think the offense will be able to score more than enough to win this by at least a touchdown. Take USC!
|10-27-18||Iowa v. Penn State -5.5||24-30||Win||100||25 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -
The Nittany Lions should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown at home against Iowa. Penn State's hopes of making the 4-team playoff and winning the Big Ten East are likely shot, but I don't see this team throwing in the towel the rest of the way.
I think their big flat spot was last week at Indiana. They definitely didn't play their best, but still managed to sneak out a 33-28 road win. I think we see a much more focused Nittany Lions team when they host nationally ranked Iowa. Keep in mind they are still looking for their first win at home in Big Ten play, which is definitely a big motivator here.
Iowa has looked impressive in their 6-1 start, but the schedule has definitely been favorable for the Hawkeyes. They have only played 2 road games and those were against Minnesota and Indiana. They lost their big step up game at home against Wisconsin and I just don't think the offense will be able to keep pace with Trace McSorely and the Nittany Lions attack.
Note that two years ago, Iowa was a mere 6-point dog at Penn State and got annihilated 41-14. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but all we need is for them to win by 6. Nittany Lions are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference win. Take Penn State!
|10-27-18||Clemson v. Florida State +17||59-10||Loss||-110||68 h 12 m||Show|
4* Clemson/Florida St ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
Clemson comes in off that impressive 41-7 win at home over previously undefeated NC State, easily covering as a 18.5-point favorite. I think that result has the Tigers way overvalued here against their rivals from the Atlantic, especially on the road.
Florida State has been one of the most disappointing teams of 2018, but there's no question that the Seminoles have some of the best talent in the country. We saw them nearly upset Miami on the road a couple weeks back and I think they are going to give Clemson all they can handle, in what to them has to feel like their Super Bowl.
The Tigers have won the last 3, but the largest margin of victory was 17 in last year's matchup. However, that was a much closer game than the final score indicates, as Clemson only led 17-14 in the 4th quarter.
Note that the Tigers are just 14-29 ATS when they go into a game off 3 or more consecutive conference wins, as the books only inflate the numbers more off a victory.
We also find a strong system in play, as road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are outgaining opponents by 125+ yards/game are just 17-48 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off back-to-back games where they had 525 or more total yards. Take Florida State!
|10-26-18||Wyoming v. Colorado State -2||Top||34-21||Loss||-105||86 h 5 m||Show|
5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State -
Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August.
They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense.
Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games.
The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State!
|10-26-18||Indiana v. Minnesota +3||31-38||Win||100||34 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +
Love the value here with the Golden Gophers as a home dog against Indiana. I'lll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect Minnesota to win this game outright.
We are seeing the Hoosiers get way too much respect from their near upset of Penn State this past Saturday. That was the ultimate get up spot for Indiana at home against a ranked opponent, while I think the Nittany Lions were still reeling a bit from back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, which all but knocked them out of the playoff picture. Indiana head coach Tom Allen said it best, "Just a gut-wrenching loss four our team today. I thought our kids played their hearts out."
This is a massive letdown spot for the Hoosiers and they will be going up against a hungry Gophers team that just lost their 4th straight. The thing is, 3 of those came on the road and the other was a home game against a good Iowa team. I like head coach P.J. Fleck and I'm confident he will have Minnesota ready to play at home in prime time.
Hoosiers not a great team to back in this spot, as they have failed to cover 7 of their last 8 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. I wouldn't be shocked at all of the Gophers won this game going away. Take Minnesota!
|10-25-18||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern OVER 45||14-34||Win||100||58 h 51 m||Show|
3* Thursday Night NCAAF Total ANNIHILATOR on App State/GA Southern OVER
I just think there's too much value here on the OVER with the low total in Thursday's huge Sun Belt showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. With the Mountaineers a 10-point favorite, the numbers here suggest the books see a final score of something like 28-17.
Only once all season has Appalachian State failed to score at least 35 points. I just think this offense is too good for Georgia Southern to keep in check and could easily see them scoring 30+. I also think the Eagles are going to be able to put together multiple scoring drives and get into the 20s, especially with this game being played on their home field.
Note that Georgia Southern comes into this game with the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country at 275.5 ypg. The last 11 times App St has faced a team that averts 200 or more rushing yards, the average score in those games have been 48.3. OVER is also 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 games played in the month of October. Take the OVER!
|10-25-18||Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 69||14-58||Loss||-115||34 h 42 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor UNDER
Most people are expecting a shootout tonight between Baylor and West Virginia, but that's not going to be the case. West Virginia's offense was exposed in their last game against Iowa State, as they managed just 152 total and 9 first downs.
That's the same ISU defense that 37 points and 519 yards to Oklahoma at home. Because Baylor gave up 66 on the road to the Sooners, I think people just assume West Virginia is going to score at will here. I don't think that's the case. The Mountaineers aren't close to Oklahoma's offense.
Baylor's defense has been getting better and just held Texas to 23 points on the road in their last game. As for the Bears' offense, it's been potent at times, but for the most part it's struggled against better competition. I mean they only had 26 points at home against Kansas. West Virginia's defense isn't great, but it's a lot stronger at home than it is on the road.
The other key here is both teams are coming off a bye, which I think a lot of people overlook when handicapping the total. There's a lot of tape out on both teams and the defenses for both teams are going to be well prepared for this one. Take the UNDER!
|10-20-18||Oregon v. Washington State -1.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State -
Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand.
Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game.
Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack.
Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State!
|10-20-18||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -11.5||7-14||Loss||-110||33 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAF SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Wildcats laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Commodores. Vandy was able to put up a decent fight last week at home against Florida, but I think that was more of a result of the Gators not being 100% invested from the start.
Definitely a tough spot for Florida off that huge home win over LSU and knowing they had their bye week on deck before the massive showdown with Georgia. The Gators let the Commodores get out to a 21-3 lead and from that point on they were a different team and outscored Vanderbilt 34-6 and wound up outgaining them 576 to 336.
I don't see Kentucky sleep-walking into this one. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and my bet is this team can't wait to get back on the field after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in overtime. I just think that Kentucky's defense will be able to completely shutdown the Commodores offense and Benny Snell and that Wildcats offense will be able to have their way, as Vanderbilt comes in ranked 94th in the country against the run, giving up 183.3 ypg. This one has blowout written all over it. Take Kentucky!
|10-20-18||Georgia Southern v. New Mexico State UNDER 55||48-31||Loss||-110||40 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF SUN BELT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Southern UNDER
The books have set the total way too high for this non-conference slate between Georgia Southern and New Mexico State. I think we are seeing a big number here because of how poorly the Aggies defense has played, as they come in giving up 43.7 ppg.
The key here is that Georgia Southern is a team that runs the option, which means they are going to put together a lot of long possessions and eat up the clock. I think New Mexico State can at least hold their own defensively against the run at home and last time out for the Eagles they managed just 15 points against a pretty bad Texas State defense.
The other thing that I think will keep this thing UNDER the mark, is I don't see New Mexico State's offense being able to do much of anything in this one. Georgia Southern has really played well defensively this year, as they are giving up just 17.3 ppg. The Aggies aren't a good rushing team and their passing attack is going to be greatly limited in this one, as winds are expected to be blowing straight across the field at close to 20 mph.
UNDER was 6-0 in New Mexico State's 6 home games over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half of the season and 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in Georgia Southern's last 7 games and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER!
|10-20-18||Memphis +10 v. Missouri||33-65||Loss||-110||40 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Memphis +
I think we would be seeing a lot different line here had Memphis not squandered that game against UCF last week. Memphis led 20-7 early and 30-17 at the half, somehow managed to go scoreless over the final 2 periods in a 31-30 loss.
That does bring into some concern of a letdown after a crushing loss like that, but I think getting a chance to take on a SEC team will have Memphis 100% ready to go. On the flip side of this, I think Missouri could have a hard time getting up for this game off their game against No. 1 Alabama. Especially with the likes of Kentucky and Florida next up on the schedule.
I also think that even if Missouri came to play, they would have a tough time putting away this Memphis team by double-digits. Memphis has a potent offense that comes in averaging 43.9 ppg and 539 ypg. Missouri is giving up 30.5 ppg and 6.2 yards/play.
It's also worth noting that Memphis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a conference loss by 3 points or less, while Missouri falls into a horrible situation. Home favorites, who are averaging 31+ ppg are just 60-111 (35%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a loss by 17 or more. Take Memphis!
|10-20-18||Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 54.5||28-53||Loss||-110||40 h 27 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Nebraska UNDER
Most are going to expect a high-scoring game here, but I think I don't see these two going past the mark set here. This is a must-win game for both sides. Nebraska is still searching for their first win of 2018, while the Golden Gophers are trying to snap a 3-game skid.
I know the defensive numbers aren't great for the Cornhuskers, but while they ended up giving up 34 points to Northwestern, the Wildcats only had 14 going into the 4th quarter. Given how much this game means to Nebraska I expect a max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this Minnesota offense is certainly one they can contain. The Gophers are averaging just 19.3 ppg in Big Ten play and that's with them scoring 31 against Iowa.
Minnesota's defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 3 games, but are much better than that and have simply played some high-powered offenses during this stretch.
Another factor here that will get overlooked by most, is the conditions for this game should favor the defenses. It's going to be windy in Linclon with wends blowing anywhere from 15 to 20 mph. That's going to force both teams to run it more than they would like and could also play a role in special teams with field goals being that much tougher.
UNDER is also 13-2 in Nebraska's last 15 games as a favorite and 10-2 over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. Take the UNDER!
|10-20-18||NC State v. Clemson -17||7-41||Win||100||40 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Favorite PLAY OF THE WEEK Clemson -
A lot of people are going to look at this line and want to grab the points with NC State. Hard to blame them, as the Wolfpack come in 5-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country. If history repeats itself like it has in the past, you are going to want to load up on the Tigers. The last 8 times a team has entered a game at 5-0 and been more than 14-point road dog, the home favorite has covered every single time.
I know the Wolfpack have a decent quarterback in Ryan Finley, but I just don't think this NC State team is as good as people think. They lost a lot from last year's team and have had a pretty easy schedule to this point with their toughest games being home matchups against Virginia and Boston College.
Last time out Clemson annihilated Wake Forest 63-3. I just think this Tigers team is better than what they have shown to this point and that blowout win over the Demon Deacons is the start of something special. Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable in the offense and this Clemson defense is loaded with NFL talent. They haven't played their best and yet are 8th in the country in total offense (531 ypg) and 3rd in total defense (261.1 ypg).
I love elite teams, especially at home, in big time matchups and I think they are going to make quite the statement in a blowout win on Saturday. Bet Clemson!
|10-20-18||Wake Forest +10.5 v. Florida State||17-38||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +
Love the value here with the Demon Deacons as a double-digit underdog against the Seminoles. I think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with Wake Forest losing 63-3 last time out at home to Clemson and Florida State barely missing out on an upset win at Miami as a 14.5-point dog.
Both teams have had extra time to prepare off a bye, but there's only one team I trust to show up and that's Wake Forest. It doesn't matter how bad a year FSU is having, the bottom teams in this league are going to get up to play them. You can almost always count on a team coming out with a big time effort after getting embarrassed the way the Demon Deacons did in that loss to the Tigers.
Speaking of Clemson, they are a big reason why I don't trust the Seminoles in this spot. Florida State hosts the Tigers next week and there's not a game outside of maybe Florida in their finale that they want to win more than that game. Not to mention their practice routine has been out of whack with hurricane that hit home. I not only think they don't cover, but I could easily see the Demon Deacons winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest!
|10-19-18||Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 56.5||41-35||Loss||-102||23 h 23 m||Show|
4* Air Force/UNLV MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on UNLV UNDER
I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total they have set for Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and UNLV. With how bad these two teams are passing and how much they love to run the football, I just don't see enough possessions for these two get anywhere close to 60 points.
The Falcons enter 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Needless to say this is going to be one of the more boring games to watch, but boring is great when you are betting the UNDER, especially with a total as high as this one.
In order for these two teams to eclipse the total they need 57 points and to get to that mark they would have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter. Unless both teams just have turnover after turnover, I don't see that happening. In fact, I think these two will be lucky to get to 45 points. Take the UNDER!
|10-13-18||Ole Miss -6 v. Arkansas||37-33||Loss||-104||101 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -
I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since.
That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock.
It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg.
Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team.
I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss!
|10-13-18||Missouri +28.5 v. Alabama||10-39||Loss||-115||32 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri +
After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide.
There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock.
You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late.
The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs.
Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri!
|10-13-18||Michigan State +14 v. Penn State||Top||21-17||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +
Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one.
I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright.
It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College.
I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State.
They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts.
Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State!
|10-13-18||Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5||26-23||Loss||-100||28 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina +
Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win.
It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog.
This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter.
I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina!
|10-13-18||Washington -3 v. Oregon||27-30||Loss||-115||28 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington -
I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be.
By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game.
Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home.
With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington!
|10-12-18||South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||68 h 3 m||Show|
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +
The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston.
They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team.
I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois.
If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward.
Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa!
|10-11-18||Georgia Southern v. Texas State +18||15-13||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +
There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5.
Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable.
Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State!
|10-09-18||Appalachian State -9 v. Arkansas State||35-9||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why.
The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg.
Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State!
|10-07-18||Wyoming +3.5 v. Hawaii||13-17||Loss||-115||59 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises early on. A Rainbow Warriors team that won just 3 games last year, has started out 5-1 with two outright wins as an underdog. However, both those underdog wins came in their first two games.
They have since gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and I think they are getting way too much respect here against a Wyoming team that is a lot more talented than their 2-3 record would suggest. Two of those three losses have come against Power 5 opponents and the other against a Boise State team that is one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country.
The biggest thing that has held the Cowboys back is their offense, but they will have no problem moving the ball here against this Hawaii defense. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg, almost a touchdown more/game than what their opponents are averaging.
With a talented defense that is better than people realize because of the poor numbers from the tough slate, I think the Cowboys not only cover the spread but win this game outright. Take Wyoming!
|10-06-18||Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +6.5||45-23||Loss||-100||45 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Non-Conf PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +
I think this is an ideal spot to jump on the Hokies as a home dog, especially with this being a nationally televised (ABC) night game. It's hard enough to win at Lane Stadium on normal circumstances, it takes all you got to win here in a night game.
Notre Dame has looked great early on and are off that impressive 38-17 win over Stanford last week. However, that was at home, where the Irish have benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 and I know the Cardinal were ranked No. 7 going into that contest, but I've not been impressed at all with what I've seen from Stanford.
Notre Dame's only true road game was at Wake Forest, who are a good up and coming team, but have zero defense. This is without a doubt the biggest challenge to date for the Irish and outside of their no-show against Old Dominion, this team has looked impressive, especially on defense, where they are giving up just 84 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards/carry.
I think this line would be closer to a pick'em if it wasn't for the injury to Hokies quarterback Justin Jackson, but I don't think there's that big of a drop-off to backup Ryan Willis, who torched a good Duke defense last week for 332 yards and 3 scores. An outright win for the home team wouldn't surprise me at all. Take Virginia Tech!
|10-06-18||Washington -20 v. UCLA||Top||31-24||Loss||-110||58 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -
Washington has won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Auburn and have racked up 3 straight impressive wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona State and BYU. I think we are seeing a shorter line here because this looks like a flat spot off those three and an even bigger game at Oregon on deck.
It's certainly not an ideal spot, but I also don't think UCLA has the talent for it to matter. The biggest thing to keep in mind is Washington can't afford to overlook anyone, as one more loss and they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
With how good the Huskies are defensively and how bad the Bruins are offensively, it's going to be really tough for UCLA to keep this within 3 touchdowns. Washington sits 10th in the country in total defense, giving up just 290 ypg. The Bruins are 102nd in rushing (135.8 ypg) and 109th in passing (176.3 ypg).
Look for the Huskies to have excellent field position throughout and I'm expecting a couple costly turnovers by UCLA to really open this thing up. Keep in mind the the Bruins defense is not good. They are 95th against the run (183 ypg) and 85th against the pass (238.5 ypg). They gave up 38 at home to Fresno St and I think Washington could score 50+ and you have to think this Huskies offense is itching for a big day offensively after all the good defenses they have played. Take Washington!
|10-06-18||Auburn -3 v. Mississippi State||9-23||Loss||-110||58 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn -
There was a ton of hype around this Mississippi State coming into the season and even after back-to-back ugly losses at Kentucky and at home to Florida, I still think the Bulldogs are getting way too much respect from the books.
Auburn made some noise with their impressive Week 1 win over Washington, but haven't exactly impressed since. They are just 1-3 ATS in the 4 games since beating the Huskies and lost outright at home to LSU as a 10-point favorite. I think it has the Tigers undervalued here against a Mississippi State team that is clearly struggling to adjust to the new offensive scheme under first year head coach Joe Moorehead.
While the Bulldogs defense has played well enough to win, I just don't see the offense being able to figure things out and do enough here against an elite Auburn defense to win this game, which is basically what they need to do for the Tigers not to cover.
Mississippi State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating 275 or fewer total yards and the Tigers are now 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Auburn!
|10-06-18||UTSA +2 v. Rice||20-3||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +
I think the wrong team is favored here. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. The Owls only win this season came against Prairie View at home in the opener and they only won by 3 as a 22-point favorite.
I certainly don't think they deserve to have the line shaded their way because they are playing at home. Rice didn't win a home game last year and have covered just 2 of their last 6 at home and lost outright in the only game they were favored.
Rice's defense is atrocious, as they are giving up 42.4 ppg and 484 ypg. They are also allowing nearly 8 yards/play, which is basically a first down every time the other team snaps the ball. The offense isn't much better. They have zero threat of a passing game and that figures to be a big problem against a UTSA defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. The Roadrunners held Baylor to just 91 yards rushing and Texas State to 26.
I also like the fact that UTSA is coming into this one playing with confidence as they are riding a 2-game winning streak. Look for the Roadrunners defense to make more than enough stops for them to cash in a rare road win. Take UTSA!
|10-06-18||Iowa State +11 v. Oklahoma State||48-42||Win||100||54 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
Oklahoma State is getting way too much respect here as a double-digit home favorite against the Cyclones.
A big reason for that is Iowa State just isn't getting a ton of respect after starting out 1-3, but it's easy to see why they have the record they do when they have played Iowa and TCU on the road and Oklahoma at home. Note that while they lost to both Oklahoma and TCU, they covered against both conference rivals, losing by just 10 as a 18.5-point dog against the Sooners and by just 3 as a 11.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs.
While Oklahoma State is off a 20-point win and cover over Kansas, they were fortunate to cover, scoring a garbage TD in the final minutes. We have already seen this team lose outright as a home favorite to Texas Tech and it wasn't pretty, as they got rolled 41-17.
The Red Raiders really made it tough on Oklahoma State's passing attack and this ISU defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents under 200 yards passing. I've liked what I've seen out of backup QB Zeb Noland and this Cyclones offense.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised here to see ISU win this game outright, as they matchup well on both sides of the ball. Take Iowa State!
|10-06-18||LSU v. Florida +3||19-27||Win||100||40 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida +
If this line doesn't scream take the Gators, I don't know what does. LSU is the No. 5 ranked team in the country and have gained the respect of the public with a 33-17 win over Miami, 22-21 win at Auburn and their recent 45-16 thrashing of Ole Miss.
Florida is ranked No. 22, but there's still a lot of question marks with this team. As good as their upset win at Mississippi State was last week, it's hard to ignore that 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky.
Simply put, the books are begging for you to take LSU here and the public has taken the bait with roughly 70% of the bets coming in on the Tigers.
I agree with the books, as I have Florida winning this game outright (will gladly take the field goal for insurance). I'm still not sold on this LSU offense being able to move the ball when they go up against a good defense. They are just 79th in the country in total offense at 396.6 ypg. The Gators are 19th in the country, giving up just 311 ypg and are holding opponents a full yard less than what their opponents are averaging.
Look for the Gators defense and a rowdy home crowd to the difference in this one. Take Florida!
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville||66-31||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Ga Tech/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -
I love this spot for the Yellow Jackets and fully expect them to go on the road and put it on a Louisville team that looks lost without Lamar Jackson to carry them offensively. The Cardinals come in averaging a whopping 18.4 ppg and 312 ypg. A drastic drop-off from the 38.1 ppg and 545 ypg they averaged a season ago.
Sophomore quarterback Juwan Pass was suppose to step into the big shoes left by Jackson and keep the offense afloat, but it's been a massive struggle for the Cardinals new signal caller. He's thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 touchdowns and is barely completing more than 50% of his attempts.
Georgia Tech's defensive numbers don't look great on paper, but they have really only played bad in 2 games and those were against a couple of high-powered offenses in USF and Clemson. Louisville clearly isn't on the same level as those two teams and I look for the Yellow Jackets to make it very difficult on this Cardinals offense.
The other thing here is the Louisville defense has had just 5 days to regroup from that crushing home loss to FSU and try to prepare for this option offense of Georgia Tech. I just think that's a too tall a task for the Cardinals, who have never faced the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!
|10-04-18||Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy||20-37||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Georgia State
|09-29-18||BYU v. Washington -16.5||7-35||Win||100||120 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Washington -
I got no problem here laying the big number with the Huskies at home against the Cougars. The betting public is all over BYU at this price, as that upset win at Wisconsin as a 23.5-point dog is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people.
The win over Wisconsin looks great on paper, but I'm not so sure the Badgers are as good as we expected. There's also little to be excited about with their road win at Arizona to open the season, as the Wildcats have looked horrible. The game that stands out to me is the home loss to Cal, who is no where close as talented as this Washington team.
I also don't think people are factoring in just how difficult it is to play well Husky Stadium, especially under the lights in a prime time game.
The even bigger key here is this is a statement game for Washington, who need to dominate the rest of the way to get into the playoffs with that loss they suffered early to Auburn.
I look for the defense of the Huskies to be what allows them to not just win but cover. BYU's offense comes in ranked 119th in the country at just 320.3 ypg. That's just not going to cut against this elite defense. Take Washington!
|09-29-18||Ohio State v. Penn State +4||Top||27-26||Win||100||60 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +
I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.
The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy.
As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back.
The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium.
Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State!
|09-29-18||Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52||17-38||Win||100||48 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER
Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines.
However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total.
Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite.
As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts.
I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52!
|09-29-18||South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky||10-24||Loss||-105||60 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +
It's been quite the start to the season for Kentucky, who is 4-0 with wins over two ranked teams in Florida and Mississippi State. The win over Mississippi State really turned some heads and people are starting to buy into this team. South Carolina has started out 2-1, but had an ugly loss at home to Georgia that quieted the hype around this team.
The books are all but begging the public to take Kentucky here laying less than a field goal at home, but I'm going the other way. I think this Gamecocks team is a lot better than people think. While they might not be as talented as the top teams in the SEC, I certainly feel like they are the more talented team in this matchup.
I also think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Not only are they off an emotional win over Mississippi State, but that victory got the respect they were so desperately wanting, as Kentucky went from unranked to No. 17 in the country. It's a lot easier playing with a chip on your shoulder than dealing with the pressure of being expected to win.
The other big thing for me is the matchup. Kentucky's offense is centered around running back Benny Snell, as they come in averaging 269 ypg on the ground to just 158 ypg through the air. They are running it twice as much as they are throwing it. I think that plays right into the strength of this South Carolina defense, which is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 5.5.
The Gamecocks are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games played on Saturday, while Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, which includes an 0-7 mark as a home favorite. Take South Carolina!
|09-29-18||Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina||35-37||Win||100||44 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Old Dominion +
This is just too good a price to pass up on with the Monarchs. Old Dominion pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 4, as they knocked Virginia Tech 49-35 as a massive 28-point home dog. I think the perception here is that the Monarchs win was a just a result of the Hokies not showing up to play. While that definitely wasn't the best effort from Va Tech, I think it's a mistake to not give some credit to Old Dominion.
The Monarchs put up 632 yards of total offense and it was a direct result of a quarterback change. Blake La Russa came off the bench and 30 of 49 for 495 yards and 4 scores. He lit a fire under this team they had been desperately missing in their 0-3 start, which saw them lose to the likes of Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. Keep in mind this is a team that brought back 16 starters and was suppose to be greatly improved.
As for East Carolina, they also have an impressive outright win as a big dog against an ACC team. The Pirates defeated UNC 41-19 as a 15-point dog. The thing is, that's not a very good Tar Heels team and it doesn't cover up the fact that they lost outright at home to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. They also had just 13 points against a bad USF defense. I just don't think ECU should be laying this big a number against a team that I feel is every bit as talented as them.
Pirates are also not a team that has had a lot of success covering the number under head coach Philip Montgomery. In fact, they are 8-19 ATS with him at head coach. They are also a miserable 3-13 ATS in the first month of the season. Take Old Dominion!
|09-28-18||Memphis -14 v. Tulane||24-40||Loss||-105||21 h 3 m||Show|
3* Friday Night NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -
I just don't think it's asking much for Memphis to win here by more than two touchdowns. Tulane's only win on the season came at home against FCS foe Nicholls State. While they did lost by just 6 at home to Wake Forest earlier in the season, they only managed 17 points against what has been an awful Demon Deacons defense.
They aren't going to keep this within two touchdowns without a huge offensive effort, as this Memphis offense is no joke. The Tigers come in average 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg. They are also averaging 8.7 yards/play, nearly picking up a first down every time they snap the ball. Memphis is built around their passing attack, but are also averaging 309 ypg on the ground.
The big key here is that Tulane is not a team that is built to play from behind with that option based offense that comes in averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Look for the Tigers to jump out to an early lead and win here by 20+ points.
Adding to this, we see that road teams off back-to-back wins by 14 or more points who are winning at least 60% of their games are 67-29 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Memphis!
|09-27-18||North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 56.5||10-47||Loss||-110||1 h 49 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
|09-22-18||Arkansas v. Auburn -29||3-34||Win||100||20 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime-Time ATS DESTROYER on Auburn -
I really like Auburn to bounce back in a big way from last week's gut-wrenching 22-21 home loss to LSU. That's definitely one they would have loved to win, but it doesn't ruin their season. Keep in mind they lost a heartbreaker to LSU last year and went on to win the SEC West. What it does do is put Auburn in playoff mode early in the year, as they essentially have to win out.
A lot of people might think Auburn will come out flat after that loss, but I expect the exact opposite. This a statement game for the Tigers and Arkansas is just the team for them to get back on track against. The Razorbacks have been a huge disappointment in year one under head coach Chad Morris. They blew a big 2nd half lead in a 27-34 defeat at Colorado St and followed that up by getting annihilated at home 44-17 by North Texas.
Look for Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to have a field day here against this Arkansas defense that is giving up 300 ypg through the air and allowing opposing QBs to complete 61% of their attempts. With a defense that is as good as any in the country, the Tigers should take control of this game early and turn this into a blowout by half. Take Auburn!
|09-22-18||Michigan State -4 v. Indiana||35-21||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan State -
This is the perfect spot to buy-low on the Spartans. Michigan State came into the season ranked No. 11 in the country, but did have the start people were expecting. They needed a late score to knock off Utah State 38-31 as a 23.5-point favorite and then lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State.
Coming in those were viewed as two easy wins, but turns out both of those teams are a lot better than people think. You also have to factor in just how hard it is for a midwest team to travel out to the west coast and play well. A lot of Big Tens teams over the years have struggled on the road against the Pac-12 early in the year.
This is still a really good Michigan State team and while Indiana is no push-over, it's asking a lot of the Hoosiers to essentially keep this game within a field goal. I also think Indiana is getting a little too much love for that 28-point win over Ball State. Given how well the Cardinals played against Notre Dame on the road the previous week, that's viewed as a good win, but I think they got Ball State in a massive letdown spot.
Note that Indiana was 5-1 ATS as a favorite last year and just 1-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. This team looks good against inferior teams and hit has them overvalued when they take a step up in competition. I think that's what we are seeing here, as the Spartans should win here by double-digits. Take Michigan State!
|09-22-18||Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU||Top||21-38||Win||100||70 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on LA Tech +
This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team.
Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite.
The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball.
The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games.
The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
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