|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears +3||6-15||Win||100||80 h 5 m||Show|
3* Rams/Bears SNF Vegas INSIDER on Bears +
LA is going to be a massive public play as a short 3-point favorite, but I'm not taking the bait from the books. I'll go ahead and take the 3-points as insurance, but I like the Bears to win this game outright.
I just think Chicago has the talent defensively to make things extremely difficult on the Rams offense. They got playmakers all over the field and it's going to be tough sledding for Todd Gurley and the running game, as the Bears only give up 66 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry at home.
It's not just the defense that makes Chicago a strong play, their offense has really gotten better under Matt Nagy and they will have Mitch Trubisky back under center after he missed the last two games. I think Nagy has had a very similar effect on his young quarterback to that of Rams head coach Sean McVay and how he transformed Goff a year ago.
It's going to be electric at Soldier Field for a prime time night game and while the conditions could be a lot worse, I think the cold is not something a lot of these Rams players will be excited about playing in. Chicago has covered 15 of their last 21 home games and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago!
|12-09-18||Purdue v. Texas +2||68-72||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas +
This is the ideal spot to jump on the Longhorns. Since upsetting North Carolina to improve to 5-0, Texas has lost 3 straight, including back-to-back home losses to VCU and Radford as double-digit favorites. If that doesn't humble the Longhorns nothing will.
I expect a extremely motivated and locked in Texas team to take the floor here at home against the Boilermakers. Purdue is a one-man show. Carsen Edwards averages 23.9 ppg. The only other player in double-figures is Ryan Cline at 14 ppg. I think that's a tough way to win against good teams, especially on the road and Purude has lost both of their true road games, as well as a neutral site game to Va Tech.
Longhorns are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home underdog with a very profitable 15-5 ATS mark as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Texas!
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +4.5||14-20||Win||100||76 h 50 m||Show|
4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers +
The Broncos have made some noise the past 3 weeks, stringing together 3 straight wins over the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. However, they also just lose their top wide out in Emmanuel Sanders and top corner in Chris Harris Jr to season-ending injuries. I just think given those two injuries and just how mediocre this team is to start with, they got no business laying more than a field goal on the road.
The 49ers are just 2-10 and come in having lost 3 in a row, but there is reason to be optimistic. After a couple of rough outings following his magical first start on MNF, Nick Mullens completed 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers last week.
It's a performance no one is really taking about because they managed just 16 points, but I think it's a great sign going into this game. He should be able to pick apart that Broncos secondary without Harris. Note that while they snuck out wins, Rivers threw for 384 yards against this Denver defense and Roethlisberger threw for 452.
As for the Broncos, there's plenty of talk about Denver putting up over 200 yards rushing in their 24-10 win at Cincinnati, but that result is reason to be concerned. Broncos are just 5-12-1 ATS last 18 after allowing 18 or fewer points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after rushing for more than 150 yards. Look for the 49ers to at worst keep this close and likely win the game outright. Take San Francisco!
|12-09-18||Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga||76-73||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Tennessee +
The public is coming in on the #1 ranked Bulldogs at close to a 80% clip and I'm putting my trust in the books that they have set this line to where they are confident the Vols will cash. I'm on board, as I like Tennessee to win this game outright.
The Vols are no pushover. They are 6-1 and their only loss is a mere 6-point defeat to Kansas on a neutral field. They only lost by 6 to the Jayhawks, despite shooting just 41% from the field and Kansas was a red-hot 50%. Gonzaga has a bunch of big wins on their resume, including that upset of Duke, but they are due for a loss and they were lucky to get by Washington 81-79 at home as a 16-point favorite in their last game.
Vols are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when the previous two were against non-conference opponents. They are also 210-8-2 ATS in their last 30 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS in their last 90 after holding their previous opponent to 25 or less 1st half points. Take Tennessee!
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||Top||24-27||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +
This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games.
With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball.
With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce.
The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore!
|12-08-18||Navy +7 v. Army||10-17||Push||0||29 h 1 m||Show|
3* Army/Navy No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Navy +
This is just too many points to pass up in one of college football's most storied rivalries. No question Army has had the better regular-season, as Navy didn't even qualify for a bowl. With that said, records mean nothing in a game like this. If anything, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule, so it's not as lopsided as you might think.
The biggest thing here with this touchdown spread is this game has been came right down to the wire each of the last two years. A big reason the games are competitive, is there's typically not a lot of scoring with two option teams. Not only does all that running eat up the clock, but these two teams are well-prepared defensively to defend the option.
Army has a bowl game against Houston to look forward to, while this is Navy's bowl game. I just think having lost the last two and being a dog in this fight for the first time in a long time, the Midshipmen aren't just a threat to cover, but win this game outright. Take Navy!
|12-08-18||UNLV +8.5 v. Illinois||74-77||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UNLV +
There's no reason for Illinois to be laying close to double-digits at home against the Rebels. I get the Illini have played a pretty tough schedule, but they are just 2-7 and have been way overvalued by the books in their slow start. Illinois is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
UNLV is 4-3 and off back-to-back losses to Valparaiso and Cincinnati, but they played both of them close and didn't shoot well in either game. Illinois has let opponents shoot 49% from the field, so good chance the Rebels get going offensively in this one.
Rebels are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs a struggling defensive team that is giving up 77 or more points/game and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Illinois is 0-4 ATS last 4 at home and 1-4 ATS last 5 off a double-digit loss at home. Take UNLV!
|12-08-18||Michigan State v. Florida +3.5||Top||63-59||Loss||-105||3 h 53 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida +
I cashed in on the Gators in their 10-point win over West Virginia and I'll gladly back them as a home dog here against the Spartans. Florida beat the Mountaineers by double-digits, despite shooting a mere 33.3% from the field. Note that game was played on a neutral court.
This has been a much different Florida offense at home, where they are averaging 85.3 ppg and shooting 53.1% from the field. It's not so much the offense, as it is the defense that has me liking the Gators here. Michigan State took won't have the same advantages against Florida as they did in their 22-point blowout win at home against Iowa, where they shot 52%.
Spartans are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 or more wins and are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take Florida!
|12-08-18||Kentucky v. Seton Hall +8||83-84||Win||100||3 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall +
I really like the value here with the Pirates catching a big number on a neutral court against the Wildcats, as these two get ready to face off at Madison Square Garden. Kentucky is 7-1 with the only setback being that ugly 118-84 loss to Duke in their season opener, but I'm still not quite sold on this team.
The Wildcats have played absolutely no one since that game against Duke and are just 3-5 ATS on the season. Set Hall has one bad loss at Nebraska and a couple of close calls against St Louis and Louisville. No question the Pirates are going to put everything they have into pulling off the upset here and this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Wildcats last played on Dec. 1 and won't play again after this one until Dec. 15.
Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Kentucky is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after scoring 75+ in 4 straight. Take Seton Hall!
|12-07-18||Idaho State v. Santa Clara -3.5||68-66||Loss||-104||12 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Santa Clara -
I got no problem laying the short number here with the Broncos, as I look for them to easily cover the small spread at home against the Bengals. Santa Clara got off to a brutal 0-4 start, but have rebounded to win 3 of their last 4 with the only loss during this stretch coming in a true road game at Cal.
Idaho State is 3-3 and 2 of those wins have come against the likes of Bethesda-CA and Montana Western. Bengals are expected to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky and are simply outclassed here. Idaho State has failed to cover 4 of their last 5 vs teams from the West Coast and are 2-8 ATS last 10 off a SU win. They are also a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog. Take Santa Clara!
|12-07-18||Kings v. Cavs +3||129-110||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cavs +
Kings are getting way too much respect here as a road favorite. As bad as Cleveland is, Sacramento should not be laying points away from home. I know the Kings just covered as 5.5-point road favorites in a 122-105 win at Phoenix, but they are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 off a win by 10 or more points.
Last time out the Cavs gave up 129 in a 14-point loss at home to the Warriors and that's worth noting as Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after giving up 125 or more points. Cavs had covered each of their previous two games before coming up short as 11-point dogs to Golden State and I'm confident they bounce back here with a win at home. Take Cleveland!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
3* Jags/Titans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Titans -
Home teams have a huge edge in these Thursday Night games, as they don't have to deal with the travel on top of playing on just 3 days of rest. I get the Jags were able to get a win in their first start after benching Bortles, but they had no business winning that game scoring just 6 points.
Cody Kessler is not the answer at quarterback and the return of Fournette isn't going to a whole lot when the Titans defense doesn't have to respect the pass. Tennessee is only giving up 18.6 ppg at home and are coming into this one riding a huge wave of momentum after their big rally in a 26-22 win over the Jets.
Jacksonville is 1-5 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by nearly 10 points/game and that so called great defense of the Jags is giving up 6.1 yards/play away from home. Take Tennessee!
|12-06-18||Iowa State -1 v. Iowa||84-98||Loss||-110||11 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -
Iowa State should have no problem going on the road and taking down in-state rival Iowa. The line really tells you all you need to know for this one, as the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 18 and getting points at home against a Cyclones team that isn't currently in the Top 25.
The books are telling you who is the better team, as the public will be on the ranked team getting points at home. I really like what I have seen from Iowa State in their 7-1 start. They haven't even had their full compliment of players and yet still have wins over Missouri, Illinois and San Diego State. Their lone loss being by just 5-points on a neutral court.
Iowa looked impressive in back-to-back wins over Oregon and UConn, but they have went ice-cold from the field since those two victories. They were lucky to escape with a 69-68 win at home over Pitt, as they shot just 36.5%. They shot 39% in a 6-point loss to Wisconsin at home and 32.8% in a 22-point loss at Michigan State.
Cyclones on the other hand come in having scored 80 or more in 4 straight games and are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 80+ in 2 straight games. Hawkeyes are also a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team that's won more than 80% of their games. Take Iowa State!
|12-05-18||San Francisco v. California +6.5||79-60||Loss||-105||14 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Cal +
While the Golden Bears are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, this is too many points for them to be catching at home against a team from the West Coast Conference. I get San Francisco is a quality team and have started out 7-1, but not a single one of those wins have come against a Power 5 opponents.
Cal already has one win against a team from the WCC, as they defeated Santa Clara at home as a 7.5-point favorite. Now they are a 6.5-point dog against SF? I just think this number has been inflated a ton and there's just too much value to pass up.
Note that while Cal is just 2-4 overall, they have only played 2 games at home and are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS at home. It's also worth noting they come in off a 84-71 loss at St-Mary's, where they gave up 45 in the 1st half. Golden Bears are 24-8 ATS last 32 after giving up 45 or more in the 1st half. Dons are also 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take California!
|12-05-18||Southern Utah v. Long Beach State -4||71-82||Win||100||13 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Long Beach State -
This line really tells you everything you need to know. Long Beach State comes in at 2-7 and riding a 4-game losing streak, yet are laying points against a Southern Utah team that is 4-1. The 49ers have played the much tougher schedule and that's easy to see as they have already logged 5 games against Power 5 opponents and have only played 2 of their 9 games at home.
To give you an idea of how easy the schedule has been for Thunderbirds, the opponents they have faced give up on average 82.3 ppg, so don't be fooled by the 86 ppg that Southern Utah is averaging. Thunderbirds are just 4-10 ATS last 14 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the 49ers are a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Long Beach State!
|12-05-18||Warriors v. Cavs +11.5||129-105||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +
The Cavs snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 99-97 win at Brooklyn as a 6-point dog and I really like their chances of keeping this within the number against the Warriors. Cleveland is definitely one of the worst teams in the league, but that often has them getting a few too many points from the books, as no one wants to be on this team. Cavs have covered each of their last 2 and 5 of their last 8.
Warriors come in at 16-9, but they just don't seem to have that killer instinct in the regular-season any more. They actually have a losing record on the road at 5-7 and are just 4-8 ATS in those 12 road games. They did win and cover last time out against the Hawks, but are just 1-5 ATS off a SU win and a mere 12-25-1 ATS last 38 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Cleveland!
|12-04-18||Spurs v. Jazz -7||105-139||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Jazz -
I got no problem laying this kind of number with Utah at home against the Spurs. San Antonio is way down this year and it's just unlikely to get a lot better. Spurs are 11-12 and own a miserable 4-8 record on the road, where they are getting outscored by nearly 6 ppg.
San Antonio does come in off a nice win at home against the Blazers, but they shot a ridiculous 60% from the field. That hot shooting covered up another bad defensive night, as the Spurs let Portland shoot 50% from the field. That's 3 straight opponents where San Antonio has allowed 50% or better shooting and they haven't held a team under 46.5% in their last 8 games.
Jazz have the talent to be one of the top defensive teams in the league and last time out they held the Heat to just 39.6%. Their ability to get stops should allow them to pull away and win this one by double-digits. Take Utah!
|12-04-18||Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3||Top||80-85||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma -
This is a no-brainer for me. I think Oklahoma is the better team and it's not even close. While both teams come into this game with a 6-1 record, the Sooners' 6-1 record has been a lot more impressive.
Oklahoma's only loss is to a Wisconsin team that figures to finish near the top of the Big Ten. They have impressive wins over Florida and Dayton and have only played 2 true home games so far this season. Notre Dame has a 2-point win over Illinois on it's resume, but also a loss at home to Radford. Irish have also played all 7 of their games at home.
Both teams lost a lot from last year, but I think a lot more people wrote off Oklahoma because they lost a superstar in Trae Young. While Young was the talk of CBB, the Sooners went just 4-12 down the stretch. A lot of that was it was a one-man show. This year they are playing much better team basketball and a lot better defense. I look for them to win this one going away. Take Oklahoma!
|12-04-18||Indiana v. Penn State -2.5||64-62||Loss||-108||10 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -
A lot of people wrote-off the Nittany Lions this year because they lost their star in Tony Carr. While that was a huge loss, there's plenty of talent still on board, including junior Lamar Stevens, who was the NIT's most outstanding player.
Stevens has been sensational, averaging 22.4 ppg and 8.6 rpg. He's got 3 guys around him who can all hit from deep and this team is holding opponents nearly 12 points below their season average on the defensive side.
Indiana is a well-known program and there's a lot of hype with this year's team, but I haven't been all that impressed. They have lost both their true road games and barely held on to beat Northwestern at home, despite shooting 55.1% from the field. That's a major cause for concern, especially on the road, where it's a lot harder to score. Take Penn State!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Eagles MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Redskins +
I really like the value here with Washington in this huge NFC East showdown on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in off a 25-22 win tat home over the Giants, where they had to battle back from a 19-3 deficit in the 1st half. I get the only thing that really matters is they won the game, but to fall behind by 16-points to a team like the Giants in a game you had to have is a big concern for me.
I just think given what we have seen from the Eagles in 2018, there's no way they should be laying almost a touchdown against a team like the Redskins. Washington has the better record at 6-5, but are coming in undervalued due to the loss of starting quarterback Alex Smith. I don't think there's a big drop-off from Smith to Colt McCoy and this Redskins defense is a lot better than they get credit for.
Eagles defense hasn't been great and come in giving up 6.4 yards/play. That's worth noting as the Redskins are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. On the flip side of this, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS last 6 vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. Take Washington!
|12-03-18||Rutgers +13.5 v. Wisconsin||64-69||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +
Really like the value here with the Scarlet Knights as a huge underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin comes in over a big road win against undefeated and No. 14 ranked Iowa. The Badgers were No. 22 in their win over the Hawkeyes and are now the No. 12 team in the country.
I think it has them getting way too much respect here against a quality Rutgers team. While the Scarlet Knights failed to cover as a 8-point home dog in a 78-67 loss to Michigan State, that was a 1-point game in the 2nd half. Prior to that loss, Rutgers went on the road and beat Miami, FL 57-54 as a 11-point dog.
Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS last 4 games on the road. Take Rutgers!
|12-03-18||Wizards -1 v. Knicks||110-107||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA East Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Wizards -
Washington should have no problem going into New York and leaving with a victory and that's all we need with this line at basically a pick'em. The Wizards come into this one off one of their best performances of the season in a 102-88 win against the Nets.
The Wizards shot 52% from the field, while holding Brooklyn to just 37% shooting. Washington's dynamic backcourt of Wall and Beal combined for 52 points and Morris came off the bench with 20. When Wall and Beal are both clicking, this is a very difficult team to beat and with the Knicks giving up 114.6 ppg and 47.4% shooting on the season, I like their chances of staying hot.
There's also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Knicks. Teams who are allowing 103+ points/game and off a close win by 3-points or less are just 51-100 ATS since 1996 when the line is +3 to -3. That's a 66% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!
|12-02-18||Minnesota v. Ohio State -7||Top||59-79||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I got no problem laying this number here at home with the Buckeyes against the Gophers. Minnesota is going to be a trendy pick here by the pubic, as this will look like too many points for them to be catching, as they are 6-1 with wins over Utah, Texas A&M, Washington and most recently Oklahoma State.
However, their lone loss came in their only true road game against Boston College and they got rolled by 12-points and shot a miserable 29.2% from the field. Ohio State can really lock teams down defensively and were playing extremely well (won true road games at Cincinnati and Creighton) before a setback at home against a quality Syracuse team.
Buckeyes lost to the Orange by a final score of 72-62 and that's worth noting, as they are a prefect 5-0 ATS last 5 times they have come off a double-digit home loss. Gophers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 1-9 ATS last 10 off a cover. Home team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and Gophers are 1-10 ATS last 11 trips to Columbus. Take Ohio State!
|12-02-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Heat||100-102||Loss||-110||9 h 3 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jazz -
Utah should have zero problem here getting a win on the road against the Heat on Sunday. The Jazz are a team that has under-performed early on, but they are starting to turn a corner. They just won by 8 as a 2-point dog at Charlotte on Friday and won by 10 at Brooklyn as a mere 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
I just think this team is starting to play some of their best basketball and Miami is a team that is struggling to find their way. The Heat have only won 5 times since Oct. 29th, but are getting some love here due to the fact that they are fresh off an upset win at home over the Pelicans.
Miami is just 3-8 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 1-6 ATS last 7 at home. Utah is 24-12 ATS last 36 when coming off back-to-back wins and are a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 trips to Miami. Take Utah!
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +10||Top||30-16||Loss||-105||122 h 57 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season.
On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.
I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog.
Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit!
|12-02-18||Colts v. Jaguars +5||0-6||Win||100||68 h 22 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Jags +
This is one most people aren't going to be able to stomach, but the books know this and have inflated the number, creating big time value with the Jaguars.
Colts were a mere 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville in Week 10. That means had they played on a neutral field that week the line basically would have been a pick'em and if they had played in Jacksonville the Jags would have been favored by 3.
They have adjusted this number by more than a touchdown and it's only been 3 weeks since they played. Colts were fortunate to win that game. Jacksonville's Rashad Green hauled in his first catch of the year and while fighting for extra yards fumbled. Instead of having the ball 1st & 10 on the Colts 25 down 3 with 1:35 to play, Indy kneels 3 straight times to end the game.
I get the idea is that the Jags are done for. They got no shot of the playoffs, won't have star running back Leondard Fournette, benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles and fired Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Cody Kessler will start and he's got experience.
It's not like the offense was good before, so I think worst case it's more of the same. At the same time, it becomes harder for the Colts to game-plan for the Jags offense with a new guy calling the plays. I still think there's some fight in this team and I'm not sold on Indianapolis being a real threat in the AFC. Take Jacksonville!
|12-02-18||Panthers v. Bucs +3.5||17-24||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
4* NFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Bucs +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a home division dog against the Panthers. Carolina is still getting a lot of love from the public, despite the results suggesting you should be betting against them.
It started with that awful showing against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, where they lost 52-21. Most just chalked that up to Carolina playing bad on the road in a short week. Then they lost an inexcusable game at Detroit against a mediocre Lions team. Then last week they lose at home to Seattle in a game they gave away late.
I just don't like how the direction we are headed with the Panthers and Tampa Bay is a team that has the talent to win this game and will be playing with a ton of confidence off their 27-9 win at home against the 49ers. Easily their best showing since their upset win at New Orleans in Week 1.
Jamies Winston got the start and shockingly the Bucs had zero turnovers. With the way this team can score, if they take care of the football they will be tough to beat. I just don't see Carolina pulling away and worse case here the Panthers win by a field goal. Take Tampa Bay!
|12-02-18||Arizona -1.5 v. Connecticut||76-72||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Arizona
I really like the Wildcats to go on the road and take down UConn. This might not be your Final 4 caliber Arizona team, but I think because they aren't quite what they have been the last couple of years they are flying under the radar.
Arizona's only two losses this season have come against Gonzaga and Auburn and the loss to the Tigers came the day after they laid it all on the line against the Bulldogs. They had an impressive win over Iowa State and their two losses are a lot better than UConn's loss to Iowa, who I think is a bit overrated right now.
Wildcats are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off a home win and the Huskies are 0-7 ATS last 7 after 2 straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.
We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Huskies. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 and are coming in off 4 straight high-scoring games where 155 or more points were scored are a mere 19-45 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Wildcats covering. Take Arizona!
|12-01-18||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28||42-10||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +
This is just too much value to pass up on with the Panthers as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. Unlike some other teams playing this Saturday, Clemson doesn't need style points to get into the playoffs. All they have to do is win this game and they are in, so there's no incentive to turn this into a blowout.
I think that definitely favors Pitt keeping this close and I'm a bit shocked the Panthers are getting no respect here. They only lost by 5-points on the road against Notre Dame. I know the final score says they lost 51-6 to Penn State, but that was a 14-6 game at the half and not nearly as big a gap in talent as the final score would lead you to believe. I know they lost their last game against Miami, but they zero reason to show up with this game on deck (already had Coastal locked up).
Let's also not ignore the schedule for Clemson. The ACC was way down this year, so they had a lot of blowout wins. I think the 3 best teams they played were Texas A&M, Syracuse and Boston College. They beat the Aggies by just 2, were lucky to beat the Orange by 4 and only defeated the Eagles by 20. Take Pittsburgh!
|12-01-18||Temple +3.5 v. St. Joe's||77-70||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Temple +
The Owls only loss this season is a mere 6-point defeat against VCU, where they shot a dreadful 32.3% from the field. I think another one of those awful shooting performances is the only thing that will keep Temple from not just covering but winning this game outright.
Since losing to VCU, the Owls have destroyed Cal 76-59, shooting 54.4% from the field and most recently won 79-77 at Missouri on 51.6% shooting. One of the big reasons I don't think the Owls will struggle with their shot, is St. Joe's has allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field.
Temple is 7-2 ATS last 9 off a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons in road games after a game with a combined score of 155 or more. Take Temple!
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||40 h 39 m||Show|
4* Georgia/Alabama SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia +
This is the matchup everyone expected and I can't believe the value we are getting here with the Bulldogs. The media has claimed this Alabama team the winners of the national championship for months, but a two touchdown favorite on a neutral field against an elite team like Georgia is a direct result of the books inflating this number because of how good the Crimson Tide have been against the number and how much the public is going to flock to the No. 1 team in the country.
Georgia has been craving this opportunity since blowing that 2nd half lead to Alabama in last year's national championship game. I just don't see a lot different between the two teams. Much like last year when the Bulldogs laid an egg against Georgia, they had one this year at LSU. They have been 100% locked in since that loss to the Tigers and certainly have the talent to not just keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright.
Keep in mind that Alabama was a mere 3.5-point favorite in the title game a year ago and only won by 3 in OT. No question Georgia players are going to know the number here and I think that only adds more fuel to the fire. Bulldogs have a defense that can slow down the Crimson Tide and without question the best offense Alabama will have seen so far this year. Take Georgia!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||41-56||Loss||-115||5 h 57 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Memphis
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|12-01-18||San Diego State v. Illinois State||75-65||Win||100||16 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Monday Line ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State
I'll take my chances here that the Aztecs leave Illinois State with a victory. This is a really good San Diego State team, but are off to a bit of a slow start with a 4-2 record early on. However, the two losses have both come away from home against the likes of Duke and Iowa State. While they struggled against those two Power 5 teams, they did knock off Xavier.
Illinois State has won 4 straight, but I just think this is a big step up in class for the Redbirds, who lost by double-digits to Georgia and Belmont earlier this season. Illinois State is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MWC.
Aztecs are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS last 9 off a SU win. Take San Diego State!
|12-01-18||Marshall v. Virginia Tech -4||Top||20-41||Win||100||97 h 0 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -
It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences.
The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home.
Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-01-18||St. John's v. Georgia Tech +4.5||76-73||Win||100||13 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech +
The Yellow Jackets are showing tremendous value here as a 4.5-point dog against the Red Storm. St John's is simply getting way too much respect from their 6-0 start to the season. While it's a nice way to start the year, the schedule has been very favorable.
Georgia Tech is 4-2, but their only two losses have both come in true road games against Power 5 opponents in Tennessee and Northwestern. The big key here will the Yellow Jacket's defense, which is only giving up 59 ppg and holding opponents to 36% shooting. I look for them to slow the Storm way down, while the offense does more than enough against a St John's defense that gives up 76.7 ppg on the road.
Red Storm are a mere 3-11 ATS last 14 neutral site games and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Yellow Jackets are 14-5 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and a perfect 10-0 ATS last 10 off a cover where they lost outright as a dog. Take Georgia Tech!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||30-29||Win||100||27 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Illinois +
Everyone is on Buffalo in this game, yet the line keeps dropping in favor of the Huskies. That's because the sharps know the wrong team is actually favored in this game. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and most will just assume a 10-win team with an offense that averages 35.2 ppg is going to easily cover a short number like this.
I just think that's a mistake. Northern Illinois is way better than their 7-5 record would lead you to believe. Their 4 non-conference games were against Iowa, Utah, FSU and BYU. The only two games they lost in MAC play were the final two after they had the division title locked up. This team has been eying the Bulls for weeks now and I think they have the talent on the defensive side of the ball to really make life tough on Buffalo.
We did just see an Ohio defense, that I have rated slightly worse than the Huskies, hold the Bulls to just 17 points and 277 total yards in a 52-17 win. I'm not saying it's going to be that lopsided, but I think worst case here this thing is decided by a field goal with the Huskies likely winning outright. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-30-18||Cavs +12.5 v. Celtics||95-128||Loss||-106||19 h 57 m||Show|
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavs +
The Cavs don't exactly offer much of a threat right now. Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, J.R. Smith, David Nwaba and George Hill are all out. They also just traded Kyle Korver and are coming off a 17 point loss at OKC.
This might look like an easy spot to jump on the Celtics, who are coming off a nice win at New Orleans as a 2-point dog. I don't think that's a wise move. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now and have a much bigger game on deck at Minnesota tomorrow. Will be really hard for them to give Cleveland their full attention.
I expect the Cavs to come out and play hard and keep this a lot closer than expected early and stick around for a cover, as Boston will likely right the ship and find a way to win at home. Simply too much value with this double-digit spread to pass up. Take Cleveland!
|11-30-18||Mississippi State v. Dayton +4||Top||65-58||Loss||-110||19 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Dayton +
The public is going to be all over the ranked Bulldogs, but I don't think Mississippi State should be favored. I wasn't all that impressed with the Bulldogs showing in Las Vegas. They lost outright to Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 4-point win against St. Mary's.
Dayton on the other hand is a team I think is flying under the radar. The Flyers struggled in the first year under head coach Anthony Grant, but return 4 starters and outside of an awful 10 minutes stretch against Oklahoma, I've liked what I have seen.
Dayton only lost by 7 on a neutral court to Virginia and shot 54.3% from the field, which is outstanding against that Cavaliers' defense. They were up decent on Oklahoma in the 2nd half, but went ice cold and scored 2 points in a 10-minute stretch.
With the Bulldogs not quite as good as people think and this being Mississippi State's first true road game, I like Dayton to win this matchup. Flyers are 13-5 ATS L18 vs a team from the SEC, while Bulldogs are 1-11 ATS last 12 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat Alcorn St by 23 last time out). Take Dayton!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +7.5||Top||10-13||Win||100||79 h 54 m||Show|
5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +
We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys.
That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11.
The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas!
|11-29-18||Austin Peay v. Troy State -4||79-74||Loss||-110||2 h 51 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Troy State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-28-18||Bulls v. Bucks -13.5||Top||113-116||Loss||-110||15 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -
I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss.
The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half.
Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee!
|11-28-18||Virginia v. Maryland +4||76-71||Loss||-108||13 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Maryland +
The betting public is going to be all over No. 4 ranked Virginia, as the books are begging for action on the Cavaliers as a short road favorite against the Terps. While Maryland comes into this game with an identical 6-0 record and are now ranked No. 24 in the country, I think people are sleeping on this team.
While they are starting to get some respect, I don't think people realize just how talented and how well Maryland is playing right now. They got two experienced playmakers who can both score in bunches in Cowan and Fernando and a trio of freshmen that are playing at a high level.
We know Virginia is going to be tough to score on, but the offense can be dreadful at times. Maryland is has shot 50% or better in each of their last 3 games and we saw the Cavaliers allow Dayton to shoot 54.3% a couple games back. Terps aren't just all offense, as they are only giving up 66 ppg, while holding teams to 39% from the field and 29% from deep. Take Maryland!
|11-28-18||VCU v. Old Dominion -3.5||52-62||Win||100||9 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Line MISTAKE on Old Dominion -
I like the value here with Old Dominion as a short home favorite against the Rams. Jeff Jones has really turned the Monarchs into a consistent threat in C-USA and it's because of the emphasis that is put on the defensive side of the ball. ODU is once again locking down opposing teams, as they enter this game allowing just 58.3 ppg and 37.2% from the field. They get even more stingy at home, where they allow just 54.5 ppg and 32.7% shooting.
VCU is a quality team and while Shaka Smart is no longer with he Rams, they are still a household name. I think that's playing into the number here, as I think this is a really tough spot for VCU against this caliber a defense in their first true road game of the season. Note they don't exactly come in shooting it well, as they have hit a mere 42% in each of their last 2 games.
Rams are just 4-9 ATS last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Clearly when the books make VCU a dog it's for good reason. Take Old Dominion.
|11-27-18||Temple +2.5 v. Missouri||79-77||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Temple +
I really like the Owls to go into Mizzou Arena and take down the Tigers. I've just not been impressed at all with Missouri, as they can't score the basketball. Tigers come into this game averaging a mere 63.6 ppg. I get they have played Iowa State, Oregon St and Kansas St, but they only had 68 points vs Central Arkansas and a mere 55 in a 3-point win over Kennesaw State.
Temple is a very strong defensive team, which is bad news for the Tigers. Owls had one bad offensive game against VCU where they shot 32% and scored 51 points (only loss this year). Every other game they have scored 75 or more, including 81 against the likes of Georgia. I just don't see Mizzu being able to keep pace. Take Temple!
|11-27-18||Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago +6.5||Top||79-65||Loss||-110||9 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago +
Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out.
I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season.
Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago!
|11-27-18||Knicks +7.5 v. Pistons||108-115||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Knicks +
I'm jump on the red-hot Knicks as a big dog against Detroit. New York comes in having won 3 straight and all 3 have been as a decently priced dog. They won 117-109 at Boston as a 14.5-point dog, 114-109 at home to the Pelicans as a 7.5-point dog and most recently 103-98 at Memphis as a 8-point dog.
Now we see them as a similarly priced dog here against a Pistons team that I think is a notch below those teams they just beat. Detroit has won 6 of 8 and covered 5 in a row, but that's giving us the value with the Knicks.
Hosting Atlantic Division teams hasn't been great for the Pistons of late. Detroit is a mere 5-16 in their last 21 home games against the teams from the Atlantic. Look for the Knicks to keep it close and don't be surprised if they win outright. Take New York!
|11-26-18||Minnesota v. Boston College -1||56-68||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston College -
It's been quite the impressive start to the season for Minnesota, who has started out 5-0 and just took home the Vancouver Showcase title with a win over Washington in the finale. They also have early victories against the likes of Utah and Texas A&M.
I believe all that has the Gophers getting a little to much respect here on the road against a talented BC team that off to a strong 4-1 start of their one. They too are coming off an impressive win, as they took down Loyola-Chicago 78-66 as a 4-point dog.
I also don't love the spot for Minnesota, who has to be a bit jet-lagged from their recent trip to Vancouver, plus all the distractions with Thanksgiving. Now back on the road in what figures to be a hostile environment for the ACC/Big Ten showdown. Simply put, there's just too much value with the Eagles at basically a pick'em at home. Take Boston College!
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||17-34||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* Titans/Texans MNF ATS DESTROYER on Titans +
Love the value here with Tennessee catching over a field goal here against the Texans. This thing should be closer to a Pick'em, but the books are inflating the number big time, knowing the public is going to pound the Texans.
Tennessee's a hard team to back because they don't exactly look pretty when they win and they are fresh off an ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. However, that was a horrible spot for the Titans, who laid it all on the line the previous week in a 34-10 home win over the Patriots.
Houston on the other hand has won 7 straight since starting out 0-3. An impressive run, but it's hard to get really excited about it. The wins have come against the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jags, Dolphins, Broncos and Redskins. They have also been very fortunate in close games, as 5 of the 7 have come by a touchdown or less.
Titans already beat Houston 20-17 earlier this season on their home field and I think Tennessee is playing much better than they were then. All signs point to a defensive battle and this one likely being decided by a field goal or less. Take Tennessee!
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||Top||24-27||Win||100||104 h 31 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +
It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown.
I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright.
The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.
Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami!
|11-25-18||Steelers v. Broncos +3||17-24||Win||105||103 h 30 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos +
The books are making it pretty clear who they think will win this game, as they know the public will be all over the Steelers at this price. Pittsburgh has won 6 straight and off an improbable win at Jacksonville. Denver is 4-6 and won just 2 of their last 8 games.
Broncos do come into this one off a big 23-22 upset win at the Chargers as a 7-point dog and will definitely be playing with a ton of confidence. For me, I just think this is a really tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Steelers used everything they had to rally late to steal the game at Jacksonville and are primed for a bit of a letdown here.
Keep in mind we know Ben Roethlisberger and the offense doesn't perform at the same level on the road as they do at home and I think the thin air of Denver will make it that much harder on Pittsburgh to play well here.
Broncos have gone an impressive 29-15 ATS in their last 44 home games vs a top tier team that's outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. Steelers are also 7-19-1 ATS last 27 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Denver!
|11-25-18||Cardinals v. Chargers -13.5||10-45||Win||100||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* NFL Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chargers -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Chargers at home against the Cardinals. This is a huge bounce back spot for Los Angeles, as they come in off an upset loss at home to the Broncos and can't afford to lose this one with a tough 4 game stretch to close out the year against the Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs.
Shouldn't be much of a problem here for the Chargers to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Arizona couldn't even beat the Raiders on their home field and it's never good when a bad team is dealing with the injury bug. Several key players are not expected to be available for the Cardinals and they already didn't have the talent to compete.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a failed cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 in November. Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games in month of November and 1-10 ATS last 11 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take Los Angeles!
|11-25-18||Magic +8 v. Lakers||108-104||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas ATS Heavy HITTER on Magic +
The Lakers are rolling right now, as they have won 9 of their last 11. However, to no surprise, they haven't exactly been a great bet during this hot streak. In fact, LA is just 5-6 ATS during this stretch. The books are simply inflating their lines to where it's really hard for them to cover.
That's exactly what I see here. Orlando was responsible for one of those two losses, as they beat LA 130-117 at home back on Nov. 17th. It's been a part of an impressive stretch here for the Magic, as they have gone 6-1-1 ATS last 8. I fully expect Orlando to hang around here and keep this well within the number.
Note this is also a huge bounce back spot for the Magic, who lost 112-87 at Denver in their last game. Magic are 12-4-1 ATS last 17 off a loss by more than 10 points. Take Orlando!
|11-25-18||Patriots v. Jets +10||27-13||Loss||-110||100 h 6 m||Show|
4* Patriots/Jets AFC East PLAY OF THE WEEK on Jets +
This is too good a price to pass up with the Jets as a double-digit division home dog against the Patriots. No surprise here to see New England overvalued, as the books no the public will be chomping at the bit to take the Patriots off their bye, which followed an ugly loss to the Titans, especially against a bad team like the Jets.
The thing is, New York always seems to find a way to keep it close at home against New England. The last 5 times the Patriots visiting MetLife they have lost outright twice and the 3 wins have all come by a touchdown or less. Last year NE won 24-17 as a 9-point favorite.
Patriots are also not the same team away from home. They are 7-0 at home and just 2-3 on the road. I think it's a plus here that the rookie Sam Darnold isn't start, as Belichick has owned rookie signal callers.
The Jets are also coming off of their bye, but it's worth noting the last time they played they lost 41-10 at home to the Bills. That's because NY is 21-6 ATS in home games off a home loss. Take New York!
|11-25-18||Seahawks +3 v. Panthers||30-27||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +
I like the value here with Seattle catching a field goal on the road against the Panthers. Carolina comes in having lost two straight and can't be trusted against the Seahawks. The Panthers got annihilated at Pittsburgh 52-21 on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and followed it up by giving away the game in a 20-19 loss at Detroit.
Seattle on the other hand rallied from a double-digit deficit to knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home on Thursday Night Football. Extra few days to prepare is a huge advantage for the Seahawks in this one.
Seattle has been playing as well as anyone of late. They are 5-3 in their last 8 with 2 of those losses coming to the Rams in games they easily could have won and the other a loss to the red-hot Chargers.
Seahawks get the perception as this bad road team, but they come in having covered 7 of their last 10 and are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take Seattle!
|11-25-18||Villanova v. Florida State -2||66-60||Loss||-110||2 h 52 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Florida State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +2||114-124||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wizards +
I love the value here with Washington as a home dog against the Pelicans. It certainly hasn't been the start to the season the Wizards were expecting, as they sit at 6-12 thru their first 18 games. They have won 4 of their last 7 and I still have a lot of confidence in this team getting back on track.
The even bigger key here is this being a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans had to play at New York yesterday and were at Philadelphia on Wednesday, so not only is this a back-to-back road set, but it's their 3rd game away from home in the last 4 days, which I think is only worse given it's come right around Thanksgiving. I think we saw some of the fatigue show in yesterday's loss to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite.
Pelicans are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU loss. Take Washington!
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +11.5||24-17||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +
I really like the value here with USC as a double-digit home dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame needs here is a win here and they will secure a spot in the college football playoff. All the pressure is on the Irish and no one is giving the Trojans a chance here, especially off that ugly loss last week to UCLA.
I just think USC has had their eyes set on this game and the chance to spoil Notre Dame's perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. We have already seen the Trojans beat a top team at home, as they knocked off Washington State earlier this year. They have lost ta home to ASU and Cal, but both could have went either way. I'm not saying USC pulls off the upset, but I think they keep it within single digits at the Coliseum. Take USC +11.5!
|11-24-18||Kentucky v. Louisville +17.5||56-10||Loss||-109||82 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +
I like the value here with Louisville as a big home dog against in-state rival Kentucky. I know it hasn't been pretty for the Cardinals in 2018 and they just lost at home to NC State by 42 last week, but I think some of that poor showing was a result of this team looking ahead to this showdown with the Wildcats.
I think we get a huge effort here from Louisville as they try to not only send their seniors out on a positive note, but also to put some kind of positive note on this disaster of a season. The even bigger key here is I don't think Kentucky is in a really bad spot. I think for them, they felt their season came to and end with that home loss to Georgia, where a win would have put them in the SEC Championship Game.
Just zero incentive here for them in these final few games and it's shown with their play on the field. They lost outright at Tennessee 24-7 and then barely beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 as a 16.5-point favorite. This is a team that couldn't score even when they were playing well, but they aren't playing with the same energy and effort on defense, which is what I believe will keep them from covering this big number. Take Louisville!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on North Carolina +
I really like the value here with the Tar Heels as a decently priced home dog against in-state rival NC State. North Carolina comes into this game sitting at 2-8 and having lost 6 straight games in ACC play. While the losses have continued to pile up, the Tar Heels have been extremely competitive of late. Their last 5 losses are all by 10-points or less and they could have won all 5 of those games.
I expect this team to come out extremely motivated for this one. Not only are they going to want to play well in their final home game of the season, but they haven't beat NC State on their home field since 2012. Not to mention, the Wolfpack have won the last two in the series.
I just don't think this year's NC State is as good as people think and have no business here laying this big a number on the road. The Wolfpack just recently lost at home to Wake Forest 27-23 as a 18.5-point favorite and their only two wins in their last 5 games are against FSU and Louisville.
The most recent was a blowout win and cover at Louisville, but note that NC State is just 11-28 ATS in their last 39 off a conference road win. Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS last 29 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. Take North Carolina!
|11-24-18||Florida v. Florida State +7.5||41-14||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +
The Seminoles have won 5 straight in this series and while this season has been a huge disappointment, FSU showed it means something to get to a bowl with their strong showing last week in their upset win at home over Boston College.
While the Seminoles are going to lay it all on the line to get that 6th win an extend their season, there's not a ton here for the Gators to be excited about and this is definitely not a team you can trust laying a number like this. We recently saw them win by just 4 as a 6.5-point home favorite vs S Carolina. The week before that they lost 38-17 as a 4.5-point favorite agains Missouri.
Seminoles have covered 9 of their last 12 outside of conference, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the SEC. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a ATS cover. Take Florida State!
|11-23-18||Florida -1 v. Butler||54-61||Loss||-105||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Florida
|11-23-18||Washington +3 v. Washington State||Top||28-15||Win||100||60 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +
The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less.
Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field.
I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington!
|11-23-18||Celtics -8.5 v. Hawks||114-96||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
3* NBA Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY on Celtics -
This just feels like the perfect spot and opponent for Boston to get right against. The Celtics come in having lost 3 straight and are fresh off an ugly 117-109 loss at home to the Knicks as a 14.5-point favorite. Boston is now sitting at 9-9 overall and I just think we get a big time effort here with the possibility of going under .500.
The Hawks haven't won a game since they squeaked out a win over the Heat at home back on Nov. 3. They just lost at home to the Raptors by 16 as a similarly priced 8-point dog. Keep in mind Toronto was kind of in the same spot as Boston when they visited Atlanta, as the Raptors had hit a bit of a lull following their hot start.
Celtics have gone an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Boston!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmaker ERROR on South Florida +
UCF is getting way too much respect here on the road against the Bulls. The Knights are fresh off a huge 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home, which locked up a spot in the AAC title game. They annihilated the spread in that game, as they went off as a mere 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side the Bulls come in having lost 4 straight. It all adds up to this inflated line we are seeing.
I not only think the Bulls can keep this within two touchdowns, but if a few breaks go there way, I could see them winning this game outright. USF has the speed on both sides of the ball to matchup with the Knights and most importantly have the talent offensively to keep pace with Milton and that UCF offense.
All the pressure is on the Knights in this one, while USF has absolutely nothing to lose, yet will be extremely motivated (has to feel like their Super Bowl) to put an end to this nation-long winning streak of UCF. Bulls did beat the Knights the last time UCF came to South Florida (last regular-season loss for UCF) and we have seen the Knights struggle away from home. They were extremely fortunate to win at Memphis earlier this year, escaping with a 31-30 win. I see a similar game here that's decided in the final minutes. Take South Florida!
|11-22-18||Falcons +12.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-105||82 h 18 m||Show|
5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Falcons +
The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up.
Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that.
I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13||35-3||Loss||-105||21 h 48 m||Show|
4* Miss St/Ole Miss Egg Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +
This is just too many points for the Rebels to be catching on their home field in a big rivalry game like this. Sure Mississippi State has the better record and are the more talented team, but you can throw out all the stats when referring to the Egg Bowl. Just last year the Rebels won 31-28 at Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog. The year before that the Bulldogs won 55-20 as a 10-point dog.
I'm not saying Ole Miss will win this game outright, but it definitely shouldn't surprise you if they do, especially with what's at stake and this being on their home field. The Rebels need a win here to become bowl eligible, as they sit at 5-6.
Playing on the road has definitely not been the strength of this Mississippi State team, as they are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS away from home. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs has been the inability of the offense to put up points. I know Ole Miss doesn't have the best of defenses, but this one they have to feel like they can at least make some stops against.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rebels have the playmakers on offense to score against this talented Mississippi State defense. Take Ole Miss!
|11-22-18||Oklahoma State v. Memphis +2.5||84-64||Loss||-102||7 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Memphis +
I'lll gladly take the points here with Memphis in this neutral site showdown with Oklahoma State. There's a buzz around this Tigers team with Penny Hardaway the new head coach. He's going to turn Memphis into a powerhouse with his ability to recruit and I think they will be showing a lot of value this year.
They already went on the road and covered against a very good LSU team, losing by just 9 as a 11.5-point dog. They did so despite a red-hot shooting night for LSU, who hit on 54% of their shots.
I think they are the better team here. Oklahoma State also has a road loss, but there's was at Charlotte as a 13-point favorite. This team is going to struggle this year, as they only returned 3 scholarship players. Take Memphis!
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-115||44 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +
I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings.
The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota.
Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less.
We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit!
|11-21-18||Loyola-Chicago -4.5 v. Boston College||66-78||Loss||-105||12 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago -
I'll gladly back the Ramblers at this price. Loyola-Chicago should have zero problem here covering the number against the Eagles in this neutral site showdown in Fort Myers, Florida. Ramblers laid an egg out of the gates and lost at home to Furman, but have rolled off 3 straight wins, including a 82-66 victory over Richmond as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
The Eagles are headed in the right direction and will surprise some teams in ACC play, but still got a ways to go. We already seen them lose at home to IUPUI as a 16-point favorite. Ramblers are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing on 1 or less days of rest. Take Loyola-Chicago!
|11-21-18||Blazers v. Bucks -6||Top||100-143||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -
The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month.
Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee!
|11-21-18||Wisconsin -7.5 v. Stanford||62-46||Win||100||5 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -
I got no problem laying this number with the Badgers against the Cardinal. Wisconsin is a team that I think was highly undervalued coming into the year. While they are starting to get some love (ranked #25), I still think there's a lot of value backing them.
Big reason Wisconsin is undervalued is they are coming off a season in which they went just 7-11 in the Big Ten and failed to make the NCAA Tournament fro the first time in 20 years. A big reason for their struggles was injuries. They got all 5 starters back and have already won on the road over Xavier by 9-points. Stanford just lost at UNC by 18 and was lucky to keep it that close. Should be an easy double-digit win here for the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!
|11-20-18||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan||21-28||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Illinois -
I think we are getting a solid price here on the Huskies due to the fact that people will assume they want nothing to do with this game having already locked up a spot in next week's MAC title game. I'm not buying that at all.
I think having lost last week at home to Miami will have this team locked in for this contest. Keep in mind that while they lost the RedHawks, their defense was outstanding, as Miami won the game on a pick-six.
If they play any kind of defense in this one, they should win here by double-digits rather easy, as Western Michigan has completely thrown in the towel on the defensive side of the ball. In the Broncos last 3 game they have allowed 42 to Ball State, 59 to Ohio and 51 to Toledo. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-20-18||Bradley +3 v. SMU||75-62||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bradley +
I'll take the points with the Braves in this neutral site showdown with the Mustangs. Bradley is a dangerous team in the MVC, as they bring back 4 starters from a 20-win team. They are 3-1 to start the year with the only loss coming to Illinois-Chicago by a mere 1-point.
SMU is off a miserable 2017-18 campaign, where injuries derailed what could have been a special season. A lot of people will expect the Mustangs to bounce back, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. They lost another NBA talent in Shake Milton, their third pro in the last two years. Two of their key guys back this year are both questionable to play in Everertt Ray and Jarrey Foster.
SMU has already lost by 10 as a 9.5-point home favorite to Southern Miss and by 6 as a 10-point home favorite to Lipscomb. The Braves are better than both of those teams. Take Bradley!
|11-19-18||Arizona -1 v. Iowa State||71-66||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona -
Iowa State is getting way too much love here against the Wildcats. This might not be your typically Arizona team that has the talent to be a serious national title contender, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the country. I like that they are flying under the radar coming into the year, as they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Iowa State is going to be a dangerous team come March if they can get healthy, but they are playing without preseason All-Big 12 guard Lindell Wigginton, who is out with a foot injury. On top of that, returning starters Cameron Lard (suspension) and Solomon Young (Groin) are also not playing.
I get the Cyclones have looked great so far without those key pieces, but all 3 games for them have come at home, where they have quite the home court edge. This one is being played in Hawaii at the Maui Invitational. Take Arizona!
|11-19-18||Suns +12.5 v. 76ers||Top||114-119||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns +
I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two.
The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte.
I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix!
|11-19-18||Akron +14 v. Clemson||69-72||Win||100||2 h 60 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Akron
|11-19-18||South Dakota State v. Tulane +8||80-84||Win||100||1 h 20 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Tulane
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears -2.5||Top||20-25||Win||100||59 h 2 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -
I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should
The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff.
Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-105||82 h 56 m||Show|
4* Eagles/Saints NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Eagles +
Simply too much value here with Philadelphia to pass up. The books have been absolutely destroyed by the Saints this season, as New Orleans has covered every spread they have faced since that ugly win against the Browns back in Week 2. That 7-0 ATS run has New Orleans way overvalued here against the Eagles.
On the flip side of this, this is about as low as the perceptions has been on the Eagles. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Cowboys at home, I think most thought this team would snap out of their early season funk. Either way, with a record of 4-5, this is do or die time for Philadelphia.
There are just some teams that relish the role of the underdog and there's no question all the doubters played a big part in the Eagles Super Bowl run a year ago. I think we see that same nasty fight from this team and while it might not be enough to beat Brees and the Saints on the road, I think they can keep it within a touchdown. Take Philadelphia!
|11-18-18||Steelers v. Jaguars +6||20-16||Win||100||111 h 15 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Jaguars AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +
Love the value here with Jacksonville as a near touchdown dog at home against the Steelers. This is it for the Jaguars, who have lost 5 straight and simply can't afford a loss here if they want to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
This is still a talented football team and they nearly made a big comeback last week in Indy, as they were driving to at worst force OT (already in FG range), but fumbled and lost 29-26. They got back their star running back in Fournette and the offense responded with more than 400 yards, as Bortles threw for 300+.
Pittsburgh is simply way overvalued here due to the fact that they have covered 5 straight. We saw this team really struggle with Jacksonville last year. The Jaguars beat them in Pittsburgh twice last year. 30-9 in the regular-season and 45-42 in the playoffs.
Jacksonville is also much better in the role of the dog. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Jacksonville!
|11-18-18||CS-Fullerton v. Monmouth +7.5||87-63||Loss||-110||2 h 31 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Monmouth
|11-17-18||Duke v. Clemson -27||6-35||Win||100||105 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Clemson -
I'll lay the big number with the Tigers in this one. Clemson has covered 5 straight games and a lot of them haven't been close. They won by 61 as a 39-point favorite against Louisville a couple games back and fresh off a cover as a 17.5-point road favorite against a good Boston College team.
I think the fact that Duke comes in having won two straight including an upset win at Miami, people will talk themselves into the Blue Devils being able to keep this game close. I just don't see it. I think everyone talking about how Alabama is this unbeatable team and everyone else is just playing for 2nd has really lit a fire under this Clemson team.
Not only are they doing whatever they want offensively since inserting Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback, but the defense is playing up to their potential after a sluggish start to the season.
In their last 5 games combined they have given up 10 points in the 1st half of play and 7 of those came on a 74-yard punt return in last weeks game against BC. Might I mention those were the only points they gave up in that entire game. I don't see Duke getting more than 14 and the Tigers scoring fewer than 42. Take Clemson!
|11-17-18||SE Missouri State v. Chattanooga +1||63-42||Loss||-100||2 h 60 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Chattanooga
|11-17-18||Boston College v. Florida State +1||21-22||Win||102||20 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Seminoles at home against the Eagles. There's no denying it's been a miserable season for Florida State, but I think there's still some fight left in this team and they need to win their last 2 to become bowl eligible.
They couldn't be catching Boston College at a better time. The Eagles are in a massive letdown spot, as they come in off a huge showdown against Clemson, where if they would have won, they would be looking at a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Now there's nothing to play for but pride and I just don't see them being interested in this one. Take Florida State!
|11-17-18||USC v. UCLA +3||27-34||Win||106||30 h 9 m||Show|
3* USC/UCLA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +
The fact that the books are begging you to take USC, tells you all you need to know about what the right side is in this one. UCLA might be sitting at 2-8 and have lost 3 straight, but they aren't just playing for this season. This is year one under Chip Kelly and they need some positives to take into next year.
They have been a lot more competitive of late. While they lost 42-21 at Oregon, they actually outgained the Ducks 496 to 492 with 29 first downs to Oregon's 20. Last week they lost 31-28 at ASU were right there in total yards 480-439. I know USC is down, but getting a win over that program would be huge for Kelly in recruiting and I also think there's more drama going on behind the scenes at USC, as I think Clay Helton is about to get shown the door.
Bruins have gone an impressive 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off back-to-back conference losses where they allowed 31+ points and 9-1 in their last 10 after giving up 31+ points in 3 straight. Take UCLA!
|11-17-18||West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7||41-45||Win||100||18 h 40 m||Show|
3* W Virginia/OK State BIG 12 PLAY OF T DAY on Oklahoma State +
I like the Cowboys to keep this thing closer than expected, as I think they got a great shot of winning this thing outright. Oklahoma State nearly upset rival Oklahoma last week. I think the perception here is they are in-store for a letdown off that close loss to the Sooners.
I don't see that at all. I think this team will be extremely motivated to ruin the Mountaineers season and secure a bowl bid on their home field. West Virginia has all the pressure on them in this one and these late road trips are when we typically see some big upsets. I'm still not completely sold on this Mountaineers team. They were dominated in a loss at ISU and should of lost at Texas.
Cowboys are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 with a total of 63 or more and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after two straight games where 60+ points were scored. Take Oklahoma State!
|11-17-18||Penn State -27 v. Rutgers||Top||20-7||Loss||-110||86 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -
I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th.
I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games.
Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate.
Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State!
|11-17-18||Michigan State +1.5 v. Nebraska||6-9||Loss||-105||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* Nebraska/Mich St BIG 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
Great price here to back the Spartans on the road against the Cornhuskers. Michigan State has one of these best defenses in the country. The Spartans come in allowing 19.7 ppg and just 327 ypg. They are as good as it gets against the run, as they are giving up 2.5 yards/carry and a mere 76 yards/game.
That's should be the difference here. With winds expected to be blowing at close to 20 mph, it's going to be really hard for either team to establish anything in the passing game. That really negates the big play potential for this Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed at least 28 in every Big Ten game and are giving up 38.9 ppg in conference play. As poor as the Spartans are offensively, they will be able to score enough to get the win. Take Michigan State!
|11-17-18||William & Mary +13 v. Notre Dame||Top||64-73||Win||100||2 h 4 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +
Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford.
Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less.
Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary!
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||45-14||Loss||-110||32 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
There's too much value here to pass up with the Lobos as a near 3-touchdown dog on their home field. This is just a classic example of the nationally ranked and house hold name being overvalued in a prime time game.
Not the easiest of spots for the Broncos. Boise State is fresh off that huge win at home over Fresno State, where they went off as a dog. Now they got a massive game on deck against Utah State. I get they have to win this one for next week's to matter, but hard for them to not look ahead to that one.
Given that game on deck, you have to think they just want to get a win and get out. Once they get a comfortable lead, they are going to have to think about resting guys and making sure no one gets hurt. So if things do get out of hand, the backdoor should be open for the Lobos.
New Mexico played Boise tough on the road last year, losing by 14 as a 17-point dog. I get they are 3-7 and don't have bowl eligibility to play for, but teams in the MWC get up for Boise and they know what's at stake for the Broncos in this game.
Lobos come in having lost 5 straight and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games off 3 straight conference losses. We saw this exact same trend cash in their last home game in a cover against San Diego State. A team that beat Boise earlier this year. Take New Mexico!
|11-16-18||Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming||Top||72-67||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +
It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago.
I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team.
Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara!
|11-16-18||St. John's -2 v. Rutgers||84-65||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. John’s -
The Red Storm should have no problem securing a win on the road against Rutgers. St. John's is a team to watch out for. This is now year three under head coach Chris Mullin and the team showed some promise late last year. They get back arguably the best player in the Big East in junior guard Shamorie Ponds and got a huge boost when Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron was cleared to play. Both are averaging 20+ ppg early on.
I like the direction Rutgers is going and they won't go down without a fight a home, but I just think the Red Storm are the far superior team in this one. Rutgers just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to compete with the likes of Ponds and Heron. Take St. John's!
|11-16-18||Ball State v. Alabama -3||61-79||Win||100||2 h 54 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Alabama
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||38-41||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* FAU/N Texas NCAAF Weeknight DESTROYER on Florida Atlantic +
This North Texas team can't be trusted and are getting too much respect here against Lane Kiffin's Owls. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for FAU, but it's not as bad as you might think given their 5-5 record. Two of those losses were on the road against Oklahoma and UCF. They also lost by 1 at Middle Tenn and fell to quality teams in Marshall and La Tech.
Most are going to take North Texas here because the perception is that they will be out for revenge from last year's two losses to FAU, including the one most remember in the C-USA title game. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for the Mean Green, who just lost outright as a 15.5-point favorite to the Monarchs.
Owls on the other hand are coming in off arguably their best 2-game stretch of the season, as they went on the road and rolled FIU 49-14 and followed that up with a 34-15 win against WKU. I don't think it will be that lopsided against North Texas, but I do expect them to win this one outright. Take FAU!
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||82 h 45 m||Show|
5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Packers +
There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals.
While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense.
The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay!
|11-15-18||Ohio State -2 v. Creighton||69-60||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt Vegas ATS BLOWOUT on Ohio State -
The value here is with Ohio State as a short favorite against the Bluejays. The Buckeyes surprised a lot of people last year and I think they are going to do it again, as a lot of people are expecting a step back after they lost their star duo of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae-Sean Tate. Not me.
Last year's surprise run came in the first year under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who is known for getting the most out of the talent he has to work with. He had to work extra hard with the talent he was able to get at Butler. Not so much at Ohio State, where they get big time recruits. This year's freshman class, mixed with some talented veterans will be tough to beat.
We already seen them go on the road and beat Cincinnati by 8 as a 4.5-point dog and then absolutely annihilate Purdue-Ft Wayne by 46 as a 18.5-point favorite. Creighton is in a very similar spot, having lost their top two scorers and only returning 2 starters, but they don't have the talent that the Buckeyes do. Take Ohio State!
|11-14-18||Niagara +14 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||62-75||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Niagara +
I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back.
We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year.
The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara!
|11-13-18||Georgetown v. Illinois -6||Top||88-80||Loss||-102||11 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -
I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season.
Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier.
Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier.
I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois!
|11-13-18||Harvard v. Massachusetts -3.5||74-71||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on UMASS -
Really like the value here with the Minutemen laying a short number at home against the Crimson. I like the direction this UMass team is headed under Matt McCall. They got a legit scorer in junior Luwane Pipkins (21.2 ppg last year) and a sharp-shooting sophomore guard in Carl Pierre (47% from 3's) to lead the way. They also got a big who can dominate in Rashaan Holloway and a couple of transfers in Curtis Cobb and Jonathan Laurent who are starting.
Harvard is a team that has high expectations this year of making the the NCAA Tournament, but we just saw them lose 81-71 at home to Northeastern. Until they get back their two studs from injury in Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns, this team will struggle to win games. Take UMass!
|11-13-18||Wisconsin v. Xavier +2||77-68||Loss||-102||9 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational Vegas Insider on Xavier +
I'm not buying the Badgers being a road favorite over the Musketeers. Xavier was a No. 1 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, but lost head coach Chris Mack and a trio of playmakers in Trevon Blueitt, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter. I just think the assumption here is that the Musketeers will take a big step back this year.
I don't think that's the case at all. Mack's assistant Travis Steele is taking over a team that not only returns a lot of talent, but added in some experienced grad transfers and solid freshmen. I get Wisconsin gets everyone back from a team that was decimated by injuries last year, but these are Bo Ryan's Badgers any more. I'm not saying Wisconsin won't be a strong team, I just think they are getting a little too much respect on the road against a Big East power. Take Xavier!
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