|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-13-12||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic +7||Top||99-89||Loss||-110||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +7
The Orlando Magic should not be catching 7 points at home Tuesday. This is a team that came into the season undervalued due to the Dwight Howard trade, and that hasn't changed through the first few weeks of the 2012-13 campaign.
The New York Knicks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-0 start. This will only be their second road game of the season, and they shouldn't be favored by 7 points away from home against almost any team in this league.
Orlando has gone a very profitable 4-2 ATS in its six games this year. Off four straight losses, the Magic will be the more motivated team heading into this one. Three of those four losses have come on the road, and there's no question that this skid has them undervalued right now.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games.
The Magic are 19-6 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. They are winning in this spot by an average of 4.7 points/game. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Magic Tuesday.
|11-12-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Detroit Pistons +6.5||92-90||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5
The Detroit Pistons are very motivated to get their first win of the season. Because this team has opened 0-7, there's no question they are undervalued right now. The betting public does not want to back them, and that's why they are showing such great value as a 6.5-point underdog here Monday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be disinterested heading into this one. They are going to have a hard time getting up to play a winless Pistons team. That's especially the case considering the Thunder just beat them at home 105-94 this past Friday.
The Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. So not only will they be disinterested, but they won't have the energy level it's going to take to win this game by 7-plus points, let alone win it at all.
A big reason why the Pistons have opened 0-7 is due to a brutal schedule that has featured six straight road games. This will be just their second home game of the season, and there's no question these players are looking forward to getting back in front of their home fans. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Pistons Monday.
|11-11-12||Miami Heat -2 v. Memphis Grizzlies||86-104||Loss||-105||8 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2
The Miami Heat are showing great value as only a 2-point favorite at Memphis. The Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 4-1 start against one of the easiest schedules you will ever see. They meet their match tonight in the defending NBA champs.
Lebron James and Dwayne Wade both are banged up a bit coming into this one, which is probably the biggest reason why the Heat are a small favorite here. But the oddsmakers are putting too much stock into it. "It's a little sore right now," James said after his last game. "I knew I would get through it. It would take a lot for me not to go back out there with my teammates."
The Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Take the Heat Sunday.
|11-10-12||Boston Celtics +1 v. Milwaukee Bucks||96-92||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Boston Celtics +1
The Boston Celtics are coming off a loss last night, while the Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a win. There's no question the Celtics are going to be the more motivated team heading into this contest Saturday.
Boston is 2-3 while the Bucks are 3-1, so the Celtics need this one more. They also want revenge from an 88-99 home loss to the Bucks in their second game of the season. There's a reason why the Bucks are only a 1-point favorite in this one, and that's because the oddsmakers realize the Celtics will want this game more.
Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 1-9 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|11-09-12||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -4.5||84-104||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4.5
The Denver Nuggets are under the radar in the early going due to their 0-3 start against a brutal schedule. I believe they should be a heavier favorite tonight against the Utah Jazz at home. This Nuggets team is one of the best in the league in my opinion and as the season progresses, you will see that.
Denver opened with three straight tough road games at the 76ers, Magic and Heat for their 0-3 start. They picked up their first win of the year with a 109-97 home victory over Detroit, then went on the road to beat Houston 93-87. You would be hard-pressed to find another team with a tougher schedule thus far.
Utah is in a big letdown spot following its 95-86 home win over the Los Angeles Lakers. This has been a great home team throughout the years, and they have opened 2-0 at home this season. However, the Jazz are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this year, falling to the Hornets, Spurs and Grizzlies.
The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Utah is 19-39 ATS in its last 58 games following a ATS win. The favorite is 31-15-3 ATS in the last 49 meetings. The Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the Nuggets Friday.
|11-08-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls||97-91||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder want to make up for their meltdown last Thursday on TNT. They were leading the Spurs by 3 points in the final minute, but managed to squander that lead and eventually lost 84-86 on the road.
The Thunder will be looking to make a statement a week later against a much weaker Chicago team tonight on TNT. The Bulls may be 3-1, but they've played about as easy of a schedule as you will find with wins against the Kings, Cavs and Magic. They lost to the Hornets at home, too.
Oklahoma City is coming off its best game of the season in a 108-88 home victory over the Toronto Raptors. This team is off to just a 2-2 start this season, so I look for it to build off of that win and to stay highly motivated tonight to get back above .500 on the season.
The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. OKC is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 Thursday games. The Thunder are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents. OKC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|11-07-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 196.5||86-95||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 196.5
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz. Both teams featured great post play as the Lakers feature Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, while the Jazz feature Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. Look for both teams to slow down the pace tonight and run their offense through their big men.
The Lakers have clearly been out of sync offensively in the early going due to the moves they made this offseason. Now, without Steve Nash running the show due to injury, they are going to be even worse off offensively, but better defensively. They allowed just 79 points to the Pistons last time out.
This has been a low-scoring series between the Lakers and Jazz. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings as they have combined to score 183 or fewer points in five of those six contests. There's no question the oddsmakers have missed their mark given these recent head-to-head results.
The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Lakers last 61 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 18-7 in Jazz last 25 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-07-12||Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. Houston Rockets||93-87||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +2.5
The Denver Nuggets are undervalued due to their 1-3 start. This is still one of the best teams in the league in my opinion, and they should not be an underdog to the overvalued Houston Rockets in this one.
Houston is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start that featured two wins against Detroit and Atlanta. It came back down to reality with an 85-95 home loss to Portland last time out. It has certainly played the easier schedule to this point.
Denver lost three road games against the 76ers, Magic and Heat to open the season before a 109-97 home victory over the Pistons last night. This team is going to be playing with a sense of urgency for a few weeks after their 0-3 start, which should make them a moneymaker in the short-term.
The Nuggets are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 road games. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Denver three of four against Houston last season, including both meetings in Houston. Take the Nuggets Wednesday.
|11-06-12||Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets -10.5||97-109||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Denver Nuggets -10.5
The Denver Nuggets are off to an 0-3 start this season thanks to a brutal schedule with three straight road games. They did not play well in their first two contests in losses at Philly and Orlando, but they did give the defending champion Miami Heat a run for their money in a 116-119 road loss.
I believe the Nuggets are still one of the best teams in the league despite their 0-3 start. In their home opener Tuesday, this team is going to be highly motivated to pick up its first win of the season against the Detroit Pistons. This has the makings of one of the biggest blowouts of the season.
The Detroit Pistons are clearly one of the worst teams in the league. They have hardly been competitive this season in losses to the Rockets, Suns and Lakers. Los Angeles was able to get its first win against the Pistons with a 108-79 home victory on Sunday, and I look for a similar blowout here tonight.
The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central opponents. Denver is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Roll with the Nuggets Tuesday.
|11-05-12||Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2||92-94||Push||0||10 h 15 m||Show|
15* Warriors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2
The Sacramento Kings are very hungry for their first win of the season. They have been dealt a brutal schedule in the early going with three road games at Chicago, Minnesota and Indiana. They lost in double overtime to the Pacers Saturday to fall to 0-3 on the season.
Golden State is getting too much respect for its 2-1 start. It beat Phoenix 87-85 on the road, and the Suns are clearly in rebuilding mode. It also beat the Clippers on the road 114-110, but it caught them in a huge letdown spot after beating the Lakers the previous night.
Sacramento is simply going to want this game more tonight as it plays in front of its home fans for the first time this season. The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Monday games. Roll with the Kings Monday.
|11-05-12||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Brooklyn Nets -7.5||107-96||Loss||-105||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -7.5
The Brooklyn Nets are amped up to ball. They are the only NBA team that has been able to play just one game thus far this season due to the New York game getting postponed. These players have a ton of energy they're just waiting to let out on the floor tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I was impressed with Brooklyn in its lone contest, a 107-100 home victory over Toronto. Five different players scored in double figures, led by Brook Lopez and his 27 points. This is a very deep team and it will be one of the top squads in the Eastern Conference come season's send.
Minnesota has not impressed me in the early going one bit. Its lone win came at home against the Kings, and it was demolished at Toronto 86-105 Sunday. It turned the ball over 24 times against the Raptors, and this team simply isn't very talented this season. The Wolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they won't be able to match the energy level the Nets bring to the court.
The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Without Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the league in the early going talent-wise. Take the Nets Monday.
|11-03-12||Denver Nuggets +8 v. Miami Heat||116-119||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +8
Denver has clearly underachieved with an 0-2 start to the season. It will be highly motivated for a victory when it travels to Miami tonight. Both teams are on a second of a back-to-back, but the Nuggets are built better for it.
The Nuggets go 10 deep and they are one of the most talented teams in the league. I have no doubt this will be one of the top teams in the West by season's end, so they are certainly undervalued right now after an 0-2 start. I'm not reading into it too much, and you shouldn't either.
The Nuggets are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games. Denver is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 vs. Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet the Nuggets Saturday.
|11-03-12||Sacramento Kings +8 v. Indiana Pacers||98-106||Push||0||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +8
The Sacramento Kings have won their last two meetings with the Pacers outright as 5.5 and 6.5 points underdogs. Indiana is still without Danny Granger, and it will not play up to its potential until he returns.
The Pacers needed to come from behind against the Raptors to win 90-88 in their opener, and then they lost to the Bobcats 89-90 last night. Clearly, losing to Charlotte shows that this team is in a world of hurt.
Sacramento will be extra motivated to pick up its first win of the season after losses at Chicago and at Minnesota in its first two contests. This is a deep team that has stockpiled talent over the last few years, and it will handle this second of a back-to-back much better than the short-handed Pacers.
The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Kings Saturday.
|11-02-12||Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||105-95||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Clippers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are still trying to find their way. They are off to an 0-2 start this season, which shouldn't come as a surprise considering they have new players and a new system. Now, they'll be without PG Steve Nash for a few games due to injury. This team is simply a mess right now and it's going to take some time for them to jell.
After losing the race for the NBA Pacific division title by one game to the Lakers last season, the Clippers want to make a statement with a win here tonight in the first meeting between these teams. They are off to a solid start this season with a 101-92 home victory over Memphis on Wednesday. The bench scored 49 points in the win, led by newcomer Jamal Crawford's 29.
The Lakers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Lakers. Roll with the Clippers Friday.
|11-02-12||Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +7||89-90||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +7
The Charlotte Bobcats finished with the worst winning percentage in NBA history last season. Clearly, this team is going to be undervalued heading into the 2012-13 season. That's certainly the case in their opener against Indiana tonight.
I really like some of the new pieces on this team that are going to make the Bobcats much more competitive this season. They have added Ramon Sessions, Brendan Haywood, Ben Gordon and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. These four newcomers join a trio of Gerald Henderson, Byron Mullens and Kemba Walker, who were the three best players on this team last year.
The Indiana Pacers were fortunate to come away with a 90-88 victory at Toronto in their opener. They won on a last-second jumper from George Hill after trailing for the majority of the game. Indiana was without Danny Granger, their top scorer, and it will be without him again tonight. There's no question the Pacers are a much worse team without Granger in the line-up. Take the Bobcats Friday.
|11-01-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||84-86||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. This is an aging team that will not handle these situations very well, especially without arguably their best player in Manu Ginobli. He is expected to miss a second straight game with a back injury.
San Antonio had to rally from a double-digit deficit in the first half to squeak out a 99-95 win at New Orleans last night. Its task gets a lot tougher tonight with the defending Western Conference champs coming to down Thursday.
Oklahoma City is still as strong of a team as it was a year ago even with the loss of James Harden. Kevin Martin averaged 17.1 points last season, and he had averaged more than 20 points in each of his previous five seasons. Martin will fill the scoring void left by the departed Harden.
The Thunder will be out to prove that they won't miss Harden with all of the talk that has been in the media since the trade. They will also be looking to win a 5th straight meeting with the Spurs after winning the final four games of a 4-2 series victory in the Western Conference Finals last season.
The Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with San Antonio. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference foes. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Oklahoma City. Roll with the Thunder Thursday.
|10-31-12||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 200||87-85||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Suns OVER 200
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low for this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns. These have been two of the best offensive teams in the league for years, and also two of the worst defensive teams. That likely won't change this season with the way their rosters are made up.
Stephen Curry is healthy to start the season for the Warriors, which is going to be huge for them offensively. He'll be leading a talented corps of players that includes David Lee, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes. All four of these players are below-average defensively, but each is above-average on offense.
The Suns will be without Steve Nash, but he's far past his prime. They have brought back Goran Dragic, who started the final 26 games for Houston last season and averaged 18.2 points and 8.3 assists. Dragic will be the face of the franchise for years to come, and he'll help the Suns pick up right where they left off with Nash as he does many of the same things offensively.
23 of the last 26 meetings between these teams have seen 200 or more combined points. That makes for a 23-3 (88%) system backing the OVER pertaining to tonight's total set. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|10-31-12||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +6.5||99-95||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Hornets +6.5
The New Orleans Hornets are showing great value Wednesday the San Antonio Spurs as a home underdog in their opener. This is a team that will be improved this season, and one that is under the radar in the early going.
New Orleans was gifted the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft and it selected Kentucky's Anthony Davis. Eric Gordon opens the season healthy and ready to go, which will be a huge boost if he can stay that way. They also signed Ryan Anderson, a big man that can stretch the court with his ability to shoot the 3-ball.
This team will be much better off offensively with Gordon and Anderson, while Davis will be able to erase defensive mistakes inside. They added both Robin Lopez and Hakim Warrick to add to a very nice rotation of post players.
The Hornets are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Hornets. The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings as well. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|10-31-12||Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||75-84||Loss||-107||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams heading into the 2012-13 season. I believe they will challenge the Lakers and Thunder come season's end, and they could end up with the best record in the Western Conference.
Denver goes 10 deep and everyone can score. It traded for Andre Iguodala, giving them the wing defender and offensive slasher it needed. With Ty Lawson running the show, this is going to be one of the best offensive teams in the league once again.
The Philadelphia 76ers are going in a different direction after trading for Andrew Bynum. It will take some time for this team to jell as they go from a guard-led team to one that runs their offense through Bynum. The Nuggets are the more-ready team heading into this opener.
The Nuggets closed out last season with a loss in the playoffs, and they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Denver is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference foes. Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
|10-30-12||Dallas Mavericks +8.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||99-91||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers 2012-13 NBA Season Opener on Dallas +8.5
The Dallas Mavericks are showing great value in their season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday. The hype surrounding the Lakers has them way overvalued early in the season due to the additions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash.
It's going to take some time for this new-look team to jell in the early going. That has been evident by their 0-8 start in the preseason. Plus, Kobe Bryant is a game-time decision tonight with a foot injury.
Dallas has added some nice pieces this season in PG Darren Collison, SG O.J. Mayo, F Elton Brand and C Eddy Curry. You'll likely see these four in the starting line-up tonight along with Shawn Marion. This team easily has enough talent even without Dirk to give the Lakers a run for their money in the opener.
The road team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings in this series. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet Dallas Tuesday.
|06-21-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Miami Heat||106-121||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat ABC No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder won't pack it in and let Miami just run away with the championship tonight. I fully expect the Thunder to fight until the end knowing that if they can just get Game 5, this is a whole new series with two games remaining in Oklahoma City.
While this is a 3-1 series, it has been much closer than that. The Thunder have lost each of the last three games by 6 points or less. "We're going to keep fighting," Kevin Durant said. "Frustrating to lose like that. It was just frustrating. But we're going to keep fighting, man. That's how we've been since I got here. We're going to keep fighting and just take it a possession and a game at a time."
The Thunder are 60-31 ATS in their last 91 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 40-23 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 73-45 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Oklahoma City in Game 5 Thursday.
|06-19-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||98-104||Loss||-107||10 h 37 m||Show|
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest side release for the 2012 NBA Finals in Game 4 tonight. This is basically a must-win game for them, and I'm expecting their best effort of the series tonight as they steal one at Miami.
The Thunder have been one of the most resilient teams in the NBA over the last few years. They dug themselves some early holes in each of the last two games, but fought back to have a chance late only to fall a little short. I look for OKC to dominate from start to finish in this one.
The Thunder are 18-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. OKC is 60-30 ATS in its last 90 games following a S.U. loss, and 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 4 Tuesday.
|06-17-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. Miami Heat||85-91||Loss||-110||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat ABC Game 3 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +4.5
After falling short of a comeback in Game 2, I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder to bounce back with a victory in Game 3. This has been one of the most resilient teams in the league as they almost always respond well following a defeat.
With two days in between games to prepare, I certainly think it benefits the Thunder more. I believe their coach makes the better adjustments and will come up with the right game plan for tonight. Plus, Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest.
The Thunder are 60-29-1 ATS in their last 90 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Thunder are 29-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Oklahoma City in Game 3 Sunday.
|06-14-12||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 196||100-96||Push||0||10 h 12 m||Show|
15* Heat/Thunder ABC Game 2 No-Brainer on OVER 196
Oddsmakers have once again set the bar too low in Game 2 between the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. These are the two most athletic teams in the league, and until the books set the total above 200 there's likely going to be a lot of value with the OVER.
Oklahoma City has scored 102 or more points in six straight games, and 98 or more in nine straight. The OVER is 8-2 in Thunder's last 10 playoff games. OKC had 24 fast break points in Game 1 and I look for them to continue to push the tempo tonight as this game is played at their pace.
After scoring 94 points in Game 1, the Heat are certain to make some adjustments. They only had 4 fast break points, and there's no question Miami is going to look to get out and run more in Game 2. They looked lost at times in the half court offensively, so their only option is to look to get out in transition more. The OVER is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 playoff games.
The OVER is 43-15-1 in Thunder last 59 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 11-2 in Thunder last 13 games as a favorite. The OVER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a ATS win. The OVER is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 14-6 in Heat last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the OVER in Game 2 Thursday.
|06-12-12||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 195.5||Top||94-105||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Thunder OVER 195.5
I believe oddsmakers have set the mark far too low for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. I look for both teams to come in very amped up and to play at a frantic pace in Game 1 because of it.
After playing a half-court team like Boston with little athleticism, the Heat aren't going to be ready for the fast-breaking style of the Thunder in this one. Look for Oklahoma City to run at every opportunity to take full advantage. The Heat will be forced to play at OKC's pace as they have to speed up their tempo as well.
The Thunder have scored 102 or more points in five straight games, and 98 or more in eight straight. They are averaging a whopping 107.4 points/game over their last five contests. Miami has averaged 99.5 points/game in winning its last two over Boston.
The OVER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 games overall, while the OVER is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games. The OVER is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games as a favorite. The OVER is 42-15-1 in Thunder last 58 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma City. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Tuesday.
|06-09-12||Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||88-101||Loss||-102||9 h 28 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston +8
The Boston Celtics have been extremely resilient in this series. After falling behind 0-2, they fought back for a 3-2 lead. After a poor effort in Game 6, I have no doubt the Celtics will show up tonight in Game 7.
Lebron James was unstoppable in Game 6, scoring 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting. It was an amazing game for him, but there's no way he has the same type of game tonight. He was hitting jump shots to score most of his points, so it was somewhat of a fluke. Doc Rivers will make sure to get the ball out of Lebron's hands early and often in this one.
The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Heat, cashing 80% of the time. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami. This team has won six of 10 meetings with Miami this season, yet they don't get treated like the better team from oddsmakers. I'll take full advantage once again in Game 7. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|06-07-12||Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics +2||Top||98-79||Loss||-110||10 h 37 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 6 No-Doubt Rout on Boston +2
The Boston Celtics continue to get no love despite outplaying Miami for four straight games now. After blowing a big lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime, the Celtics have grabbed a stranglehold on this series. They are making all the big plays down the stretch, and that won't change tonight.
Doc Rivers is coaching circles around Eric Spoelstra in this series. He has his team playing together and making all the right adjustments, while Spoelstra has his team playing as individuals and looking lost offensively. Miami's role players have not showed up, and their chances of doing so in a hostile atmosphere tonight in Boston are slim to none.
It's amazing that the Celtics are an underdog considering the fact that they've owned Miami this season. After going 3-1 in the regular season, the Celtics are now 6-3 in all meetings with the Heat this season, including a sensational 8-1 ATS. Miami is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Boston.
Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 6-20 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Bet Boston in Game 6 Thursday.
|06-06-12||San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||99-107||Loss||-110||10 h 14 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5
I have backed the Oklahoma City Thunder against the spread with success in each of their last three games. However, I'm switching gears tonight and going with the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of this series for a few simple reasons.
Oklahoma City is still a young team and has few key players that have ever been to the NBA Finals. Close-out games are the toughest, especially when trying to advance to a stage as big as the NBA Finals. I don't believe the Thunder will be up to the task tonight.
The Spurs' lives are at stake tonight, and they'll be giving 110% for 48 minutes to try to stay alive. There's no question the Thunder will be trying hard as well, but they will likely be trying too hard which will lead to turnovers and quick shots. I just don't think they're ready to win a big game like this with what's at stake.
San Antonio, meanwhile, is a veteran bunch with several players that have been to the NBA Finals before. They have been through these elimination games, and they won't be phased by it. I look for Greg Popovich to rally his troops, and for his players to go out and execute better than Oklahoma City does.
The Spurs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 6.5 points/game. San Antonio is also 20-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by 8.8 points/game. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Wednesday.
|06-05-12||Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||94-90||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +8
The Boston Celtics have all of the momentum heading into Game 5. They have outplayed the Miami Heat in three straight games now, though they gave away Game 2. Boston nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game 4, but managed to win 93-91 in overtime which gives them the belief they can win this series.
Last year, the Celtics lost Game 4 to the Heat in heartbreaking fashion, which put them down 3-1 in the series, thus it what basically over. Now even at 2-2, the Celtics understand they have a great shot at advancing to the NBA Finals, and I fully expect them to take advantage.
The Celtics have had an excellent game plan these last three contests, with the key being double-teaming both James and Wade with great help defense. While Chris Bosh is expected to return tonight, it could actually hurt the Heat as they've been getting used to playing without him. Plus, he'll certainly be rusty his first game back.
The Celtics are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. Miami is 6-19 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Miami as they clearly have their number. Bet Boston in Game 5 Tuesday.
|06-04-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||108-103||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Spurs TNT Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have all of the momentum heading into Game 5 tonight. They made all the right adjustments in Games 3 and 4, and I expect them to steal one in San Antonio Monday. Getting the five points is just an added bonus.
Oklahoma City has gone to a smaller line-up more frequently in the last two games, which allows them to match up with the Spurs much better. They can switch pick and rolls on defense, which takes away many of the options that San Antonio likes to use.
The biggest adjustment has been putting Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker defensively. Parker scored 16 and 12 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. The Thunder won Game 4 109-103 despite off nights from Russell Wesbrook (2-10, 7 points) and James Harden (4-13, 11 points), which is a great sign for them going forward.
The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio's 20-game winning streak came to an end, and now they're rattled and lacking the confidence they had during their streak. Bet Oklahoma City in Game 5 Monday.
|06-03-12||Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics +2||Top||91-93||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Boston +2
Boston realistically should be up 2-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2. But they responded well in Game 3, topping the Heat 101-91 at home. I fully expect the Celtics to roll at home in Game 4 as well.
The home team has been absolutely dominant in this series thus far. The home squad is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings overall. Miami has really struggled against the number in Boston, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 visits to the TD Garden.
The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Boston is 26-9 ATS in their last 35 Sunday games. The Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog. The Heat are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|06-02-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5||Top||103-109||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Game 4 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -3.5
I'm siding with the Oklahoma City Thunder once again in Game 4 Saturday. They have figured out the Spurs, and they'll even this series up with a blowout victory tonight. This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers as the Thunder should be a much bigger favorite.
Oklahoma City is 32-7 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs. You could argue that they have the best home-court advantage in the history of the NBA. Head coach Mark Brooks has decided to put Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker, and it worked wonders in Game 3 as Parker was held to just 16 points.
The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder in Game 4 Saturday.
|06-01-12||Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 180.5||Top||91-101||Loss||-105||12 h 59 m||Show|
20* Heat/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5
After a 115-111 overtime thriller in Game 2, I look for Game 3 to be a much more low-scoring affair. Boston knows they cannot afford to get in a track meet with Miami, and they'll control the tempo playing at home this time around.
I look for this one to be played at a pace similar to Game 1, which saw 172 combined points in a 93-79 Heat victory. Miami did figure out how to slow down Rajon Rondo in the second half of Game 2, and the Celtics figured out how to slow down Wade and James in the 4th quarter of Game 2 as neither player had a field goal in that period.
Miami is 10-2 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Miami is 4-0 to the UNDER in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The UNDER is 9-2 in Celtics last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.
|05-31-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5||Top||82-102||Win||100||31 h 47 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder represent my strongest release for the entire 2012 NBA playoffs tonight. I know the San Antonio Spurs have won 20 straight, but they haven't faced an atmosphere nearly as tough as the one they'll face in Game 3 tonight.
This is a "must win" situation for the Thunder, and I fully expect them to roll at home tonight. They found out what works in the second half of Game 2, which is a smaller line-up to counter the line-up the Spurs have on the floor. The Thunder cut a 22-point deficit down to 6 when going to small ball.
The Thunder are 31-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents 105.3 to 95.5 on average. They are a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs. Oklahoma City has the best home-court advantage of any team left in the playoffs. They are favored for good reason tonight as oddsmakers know this is their game to win.
The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog. San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Thunder are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Thunder Thursday.
|05-30-12||Boston Celtics +8 v. Miami Heat||111-115||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +8
I'm siding with the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 2. Boston had their chances in Game 1, but they tried to give the game away with technical foul after technical foul in a game where the calls simply didn't go their way.
Instead of talking, I look for the Celtics to let their play speak for itself tonight. Boston has vowed to be more physical, which will be needed after giving up too many layups in Game 1. Nothing is going to come easy for Lebron James and Dwyane Wade tonight.
Head coach Doc Rivers is one of the best in the business at making adjustments. He's also excellent at getting the most out of his players. He'll be looking to do just that after their poor performance in Game 1, and I look for his veteran players to respond.
Boston is 22-7 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Miami, only once losing by more than 8 points. The Celtics went 3-1 S.U. against the Heat during the regular season. Take the Celtics in Game 2 Wednesday.
|05-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||111-120||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Spurs Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +5
The Oklahoma City Thunder gave away Game 1 by allowing 39 points to the San Antonio Spurs in the 4th quarter, blowing an 11-point lead in the second half. I believe they'll come back highly motivated from that collapse and steal Game 2 tonight.
I look for the Thunder to make the proper adjustments in between games to make sure to cut off the penetration by Parker and Ginobli much better than they did in Game 1. Oklahoma City did a decent job of it through the first three quarters, but simply forgot what they were doing in the 4th, yet still only lost by 3 points.
The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a S.U. loss, so they are certainly one of the most resilient teams in the league. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. OKC is as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Thunder in Game 2 Tuesday.
|05-28-12||Boston Celtics +8.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||79-93||Loss||-104||10 h 6 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Heat ESPN Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +8.5
The Boston Celtics are getting no respect from oddsmakers in Game 1 tonight. I'll take full advantage and back the Celtics at this inflated number Monday. Boston is a tough match-up for Miami, especially considering the Heat are still without Chris Bosh.
Doc Rivers is a defensive genius of a head coach. He knows how to stop superstars, and he'll have the perfect game plan to defend Lebron James and Dwyane Wade by double-teaming them often, making other players try and beat them. Boston has proven in the past that they know how to stop these two.
Boston is 8-1 ATS after a combined score of 160 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boston is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Miami. The Celtics won three of four meetings this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points. Bet Boston in Game 1 Monday.
|05-27-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 204||Top||98-101||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Spurs Game 1 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 204
I am siding with the OVER in Game 1 Sunday. These are two of the best offensive teams in the league, and they should have no problem combining to score 204-plus points in Game 1. Playing Game 1 OVERS has certainly been a profitable investment over the years in the playoffs.
The Thunder score 102.7 points/game on the year, while the Spurs put up 103.5 points/game. San Antonio scores a whopping 106.0 points/game at home this season. Both teams have mismatches all over the board offensively that they can exploit, and that will be evident after Game 1.
These teams have combined for 203 or more points in four straight meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The OVER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Bet the OVER in Game 1 Sunday.
|05-26-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -5.5||Top||75-85||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics ABC Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -5.5
Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in these last two games with a lot on the line with the series tied at 2-2. Boston won Game 5 in convincing fashion 101-85, while Philly responded with a 82-75 triumph in Game 6.
I believe the Celtics will feed off their home crowd tonight, and their role players will be the difference in this one. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce played well in Game 6, but the rest of the Celtics players shot a combined 12-of-47 (25.5 percent) from the field. These role players will be much more confident at home in Game 7.
Philly is a very young team that is not ready to shine on a stage like tonight's. Boston is a veteran franchise that has been in these spots before, so the pressure of a Game 7 won't phase them. Their veteran leaders in Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo will lead the team to victory as their role players follow suit.
Boston is 10-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are also 9-1 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Saturday.
|05-24-12||Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 182||Top||105-93||Loss||-110||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* Heat/Pacers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 182
With what's at stake in Game 6 tonight, I look for a defensive battle between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. After giving up 115 points to the Heat in a Game 5 loss, the Pacers were called "soft" by Larry Bird.
I look for the Pacers to respond in a big way by buckling down defensively, while also trying to feed the ball inside for buckets around the rim. Look for Indiana to slow down the pace playing at home as they know they cannot run with the Heat.
Miami is going to be without Udonis Haslem, who after Chris Bosh went out with an injury, became their biggest big man threat to score the basketball. Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf aren't going to be able to give the Heat anything offensively, leaving the burden on James and Wade.
The Heat are 18-5 to the UNDER after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 24-6 in Heat last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Heat last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-23-12||Boston Celtics +1.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||75-82||Loss||-104||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers Game 6 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston +1.5
In a potential elimination game tonight, these young Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to be able to handle the pressure. I fully expect these veteran Boston Celtics to rise to the occasion and put an end to this series tonight. They will be in a better state of mind heading into this one.
"It's not really doom and gloom," Andre Iguodala said. "You get in a situation like this, you get thoughts creeping in your mind it could be over in a day or two. Our guys are talking about tomorrow and what we've got to do to try and win that game."
The comments from many of the 76ers young players, and coach Doug Collins, lead me to believe that they are putting way too much into this game. Obviously, it's win or go home, but Sixers guard Jrue Holiday says he looks at Game 6 as, "kind of like the end of the world." They are basically over-hyping themselves heading into this one, which doesn't usually work.
The Celtics are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Boston is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. The 76ers are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Wednesday.
|05-22-12||Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat||83-115||Loss||-104||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Heat TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana +6.5
Despite losing Game 4 at home to the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers are still in better position in this series. That's because they are fully healthy, while the Heat remain without Chris Bosh.
Lebron James and Dwyane Wade came up huge in Game 4, combining for 70 of the team's 101 points in a 101-93 victory. You can bet the Pacers are going to have a game plan to make sure that James and Wade don't beat them again, forcing other unproven players to take and make big shots.
Indiana has outscored Miami by 5 points in this series. The Pacers should not be the underdog in Game 5 given the Heat's health situation. The betting public is going to flock to the Heat after their Game 4 performance, but I'm going the other way with this one and backing the better team.
The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. This is a combined 20-1 (95%) system backing Indiana tonight. Take the Pacers Tuesday.
|05-21-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics -5.5||Top||85-101||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Celtics TNT Monday No-Brainer on Boston -5.5
The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a small home favorite in Game 5 of this series with the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston knows they did not play well in their first two home games in this series, and they want to come out and make a statement with a blowout home victory tonight with the series tied at 2-2.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in the second half of Game 4. You can bet this team will come out hungry tonight, similarly to when they did in Game 3. After losing Game 2 at home, the Celtics went on the road and stole Game 3 with an emphatic 107-91 victory.
Boston is 9-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. This team plays their best in big games. Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Monday.
|05-20-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5||Top||102-99||Loss||-110||13 h 29 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 190.5
I'm siding with the UNDER in Game 4. These teams combined for 182 points last night in a 96-86 San Antonio victory. I expect another defensive battle in Game 4 with the Clippers playing for their playoff lives.
This play falls into a system that is 56-30 (65.1%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - poor free throw shooting team - making <=71% of their free throws, on Sunday games.
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. These four trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Sunday.
|05-19-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 189||Top||103-100||Loss||-110||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189
Playing on back-to-back days after a grueling 99-96 Game 3 victory by the Lakers, I fully expect both Los Angeles and Oklahoma City to be tired for Game 4. That will lead to tough shots and fewer buckets in transition as both teams work their offenses through the half court.
After combining for 152 points in Game 2, these teams combined for 195 points in Game 3. However, they combined to shoot 67-70 (96%) from the free throw line, which is the only reason that game went over the posted total of 191.5. Both teams won't shoot that well from the free throw line again on tired legs tonight.
Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers have controlled the tempo the last two games, and that will be the case again in Game 4 as this one gets slowed down to a snails pace. Don't expect there to be 70 free throws between these teams again. Bet the UNDER in Game 4 Saturday.
|05-19-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 191||96-86||Win||100||5 h 23 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Clippers ABC Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 191
Game 1 saw 200 combined points and Game 2 saw 193 combined points. I look for this trend to continue as the Spurs and Clippers don't combine to score more than 190 points in Game 3.
San Antonio controlled the tempo in the first two games at home, but Los Angeles figures to control the tempo at home this time around. The Spurs like to push the pace, while the Clippers operate best in the half court. This will be a half court game in Los Angeles tonight.
The Clippers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 11-3 to the UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The UNDER is 17-3-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. These three trends make for a perfect 13-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-18-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 191.5||Top||96-99||Loss||-108||11 h 12 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Thunder UNDER 191.5
After a high-scoring affair in Game 1 with 209 combined points in a 119-90 Thunder victory, these teams came back to score 152 combined points in a 77-75 win for Oklahoma City in Game 2. I look for Game 3 to finish somewhere in between the first two contests, but it will play out closer to the Game 2 result.
Los Angeles returns home where they'll control the tempo tonight at Staples Center. They did a good job of controlling the pace in Game 2. The fact of the matter is it's simply tough to run in the playoffs, and the Thunder won't be able to in Game 3 against a hungry, motivated L.A. defense. This is a must-win game for the Lakers, and they'll be playing like it defensively.
This play falls into a system that is 88-43 (67.2%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
The Lakers are 14-4 to the UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 13-6 in Thunder last 19 road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Friday.
|05-17-12||Los Angeles Clippers +11 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||88-105||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Spurs TNT ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +11
It has certainly been a nice trend of backing teams that lose Game 1 in Game 2. I'm going to follow that path tonight as well by taking the Los Angeles Clippers as a double-digit underdog against the San Antonio Spurs.
Los Angeles hung tough in Game 1, but they simply didn't have the energy needed to keep up following their grueling 7-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies last round. With an extra day of rest, and knowing they cannot afford to go down 0-2, the Clippers will be giving max effort tonight for 48 minutes. It will be enough to cover this inflated spread.
San Antonio shot a ridiculous 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) from 3-point range in Game 1, and the odds are simply against them shooting that well again. They still only won by 15 points despite shooting so well from the perimeter. Look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments and to show better effort in rotating to San Antonio's 3-point shooters.
This play falls into a system that is 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Spurs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Los Angeles is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. They are actually outscoring their opponents by 6.8 points/game in this spot. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
|05-16-12||Los Angeles Lakers +8 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||75-77||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +8
I really like taking teams in Game 2 of a playoff series after a bad loss in Game 1. That's precisely what I'll do tonight by backing the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday over the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet that the Lakers are going to give a much better showing in this one.
Los Angeles was simply tired from their Game 7 victory over Denver. The Lakers had to fly out to Oklahoma City, and they really didn't have a lot of time to prepare for the Thunder. After facing them once, and getting a practice day, the Lakers will be much more prepared for Game 2.
This is a team that sometimes just doesn't show up for whatever reason. However, when they really need a win, Kobe, Andrew Bynum and Co. really do give it their all, and usually come out on top. I look for that to be the case tonight and for this one to go right down to the wire as the Lakers make the proper adjustments on both sides of the ball.
"Everything's fixable. It's just about making adjustments. That's really what the postseason is," said Kobe Bryant, a five-time NBA champ. "They came out, took us out back and whooped us. It's on us to make adjustments, to make changes and come back with a better effort - and we will."
Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They are only outscoring opponents in this spot by an average of 3.7 points/game. The Thunder are also just 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by a mere 0.6 points/game. Take the Lakers in Game 2 Wednesday.
|05-16-12||Boston Celtics +2 v. Philadelphia 76ers||Top||107-91||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
20* Celtics/76ers TNT Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +2
After a poor performance in Game 2 in which the Boston Celtics didn't even look like they were trying, I look for them to come out hungry and motivated in Game 3. Even though they didn't put their best foot forward, the Celtics still had a chance to win that game. You can bet the 76ers will be getting Boston's best effort tonight, which will be good enough for a Celtics win.
"I don't like the fact that we took, to me, almost three quarters to play the right way offensively," coach Doc Rivers said. "We knew the blueprint before the game. It took us three quarters to get into it. I always say that's on me. Somehow, I have to figure that out with our guys."
"Being in their building really isn't going to affect us," Ray Allen said. "It's all about how we play them when we get out there, how we take care and work together better than what we did (in Game 2)."
Boston is 11-1 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also 8-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take these 100% & 92% systems straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Wednesday.
|05-15-12||Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat||Top||78-75||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7
The Indiana Pacers represent my favorite bet for the second round of the 2012 NBA playoffs Tuesday. I look for Indiana to not only cover this inflated 7-point spread in Game 2, but to likely win it outright as well.
Miami is really going to miss Chris Bosh. The Pacers already have a huge length advantage in this series over the Heat, and now their height is going to be an even bigger edge. Bosh is underrated as he averages 18.0 points and 7.9 rebounds, and that's production that simply cannot be replaced.
The Pacers proved they could play with the Heat in Game 1. They held a 48-42 lead at halftime, and were tied 70-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter before getting outscored 16-25 over the final period. I look for Indiana to finish much stronger in this all-important Game 2 tonight.
The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, while the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series overall. Indiana is a very profitable 217-163 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1996. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.
|05-14-12||Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||Top||90-119||Loss||-106||11 h 38 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Thunder Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +7.5
I look for Game 1 of this series to go right down to the wire. Throughout the years, there's no question that Game 1 has been THE GAME for the road team to steal. At full strength with Metta World Peace back, the Lakers are as dangerous as any team left in the playoffs.
The Lakers are riding high following their impressive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets a few nights ago. They have the momentum heading into this contest. That's because while Oklahoma City swept Dallas in the first round, they haven't played a game in 8 days. Look for the Thunder to come out rusty in this one.
The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games overall. Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Monday.
|05-13-12||Indiana Pacers +8.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||86-95||Loss||-110||5 h 56 m||Show|
20* Pacers/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5
The Indiana Pacers are the most dangerous threat to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. They are way undervalued coming into this Game 1 showdown against the Heat Sunday, and I'll take full advantage.
These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Pacers got progressively better. Indiana lost by 35 in their first meeting, and by 15 in their second. Then, in their third meeting, the Pacers lost in overtime 93-91, and won their 4th meeting 105-90.
The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Heat are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Underdog is 24-9-1 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series. Bet the Pacers Sunday.
|05-12-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -260||Top||87-96||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -260
"Everything that has happened in this series has to be behind us, whether it's good or bad," said Pau Gasol, who managed three points on 1-for-10 shooting and three rebounds in Game 6. "We've got to rely on aggressiveness tomorrow, on energy. We've got to want it more than they do."
The Lakers are clearly focused and ready to play this game tonight. They can beat anyone in the league when that's the case, and I fully expect them to make easy work of the Nuggets in Game 7. And the cavalry is coming, in the form of an intense defender with dangerous elbows: Metta World Peace will start Game 7 after finishing his seven-game suspension for viciously hitting Oklahoma City's James Harden in the regular season.
"I expect him to come out and play with the tenacity that he's known for," Kobe Bryant said. "He's the one guy I can rely on, night in, night out, to compete and play hard, and play with that sense of urgency, play with no fear. I'm looking forward to having that on my side again." He called out his teammates, and I expect them to respond in this one.
The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home. This is the biggest reason I'm taking them on the Money Line instead of the spread. I have no doubt they'll get it done as they put together their best effort in these 2012 playoffs. Bet the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 Saturday.
|05-11-12||Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers||Top||90-88||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
20* Grizzlies/Clippers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -1.5
The Memphis Grizzlies are favored for good reason tonight. I'll side with the oddsmakers in this one and back the Grizzlies in Game 6 Friday. Despite being down 3-2 in this series, I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team.
Los Angeles has simply had good fortune late in games, which is the reason they lead this series. That good fortune has appeared to run out as their two superstars both suffered injuries in their Game 5 loss to the Grizzlies, and each is banged up heading into this one.
Griffin suffered a hyperflexed left knee in the loss. Though he was able to return, Griffin wasn't very effective in Game 5. Paul aggravated a right groin injury during the fourth quarter of Wednesday's defeat. He played through the injury for most of the final quarter before sitting out the final minute of the game. Paul is actually a game-time decision tonight.
The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Memphis is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Memphis in Game 6 Friday.
|05-10-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 197||Top||96-113||Loss||-107||12 h 51 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 197
You could make the argument that every game in this series should have gone UNDER the total. The UNDER is 3-2 in the first five games, with the two OVERS going over by a combined 5.5 points. It took a 60-point combined 4th quarter in Game 5 for it to go OVER.
What I'm saying is that the clear value in Game 6 is with the UNDER. The defensive intensity in this game will be greater than any other game in this series yet. The Lakers have taken two games off defensively, and those are the two games that went OVER as Denver topped 100 points in each.
The Lakers will not take tonight off defensively. They realize they let a big opportunity slip away in Game 5, and now Kobe Bryant will rally the troops and make sure that his team executes on defense. Andrew Bynum has been called out by the media, so look for him to be a defensive stopper in the paint.
Los Angeles also got out of their game offensively in Game 5. They tried to run with Denver, which doesn't work. Look for the Lakers to slow down the pace and run their offense through their big men inside. This game will be played at a much slower tempo than Game 5 as the Lakers get back in transition defensively, and execute better offensively.
These teams have combined to average 191.8 points/game through the first five games, which is more than 5 points less than the posted total tonight. The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Denver. These teams combined for 183 and 180 points in Games 3 and 4 in Denver, respectively.
The Lakers are 10-2 to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 21-6 in Lakers last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-10-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics -6.5||80-83||Loss||-109||9 h 10 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5
After failing to close out the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 with a tough 1-point loss in Atlanta, the Boston Celtics won't waste another opportunity in Game 6 tonight. I fully expect the Celtics to roll in blowout fashion and put the Hawks out of their misery.
I look for this game to take a similar path to Game 4, where the Celtics led huge the entire way. Boston would win that contest 101-79 at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Atlanta is a very tired team right now as they had four of their five starters play 41 or more minutes in Game 5. The other, Marvin Williams, played nearly 36 minutes. The Hawks didn't have one bench player play more than 8 minutes in Game 5. Look for Atlanta to ware down in the 4th quarter tonight.
The Hawks are 9-24 ATS in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Celtics are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take the Celtics in Game 6 Thursday.
|05-09-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6||Top||80-92||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis Grizzlies -6
In Game 5 Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies represent my strongest release of the entire 1st round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. I have Memphis rolling to a blowout victory by double-digits tonight to extend this series. This game won't be nearly as competitive as the first four.
Memphis should arguably be up 3-1 in this series. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1, then proceeded to go on the road to lose two games in Los Angeles by a combined 5 points. I have no doubt that Memphis is the better team, and they'll show it on the floor tonight as they take out their frustration on these Clippers.
Los Angeles is in a big letdown spot here. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Clippers are very comfortable with their position in this series. That will allow them to relax as a team knowing that they have a home contest in Game 6 in their hip pocket. This will easily be the worst effort of the series from L.A.
The Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 30-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis in Game 5 Wednesday.
|05-08-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5||Top||102-99||Loss||-110||31 h 14 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199.5
Once again, oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. In an elimination game for Denver, this contest will be played with a very high level of intensity defensively. These teams will not reach 200 or more combined points.
The first four games in this series have seen 191, 204, 183 and 180 combined points, respectively. That's an average of 189.5 points/game, which is 10 full points lower than the posted total tonight. As you can see, we are basically getting 10 points of value on this UNDER in Game 5.
The Lakers have controlled the tempo in this series from Game 1. Denver likes to get out and run, but the Lakers simply haven't been allowing it. At Staples Center, Los Angeles will control the tempo once again tonight and make this a half-court game.
Los Angeles is 10-1 (91%) to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-5 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings in this series, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 5 Tuesday.
|05-07-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +8.5||Top||87-81||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8.5
I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.
Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8.5 points. That's 3 full points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.
This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.
|05-06-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 202||Top||92-88||Win||100||12 h 1 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202
In this all-important Game 4 Sunday between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, I have no doubt this will be a defensive battle. This is the "make or break" game for Denver. If they want to win this series, they must win Game 4. The level of intensity on the defensive end will be at an all-time high in this series.
Once again, oddsmakers have missed their mark in setting this total much higher than it should be. Two of the first three games have gone UNDER the posted total with combined scores of 191, 204 and 183 points. That's an average of 192.7 points/game, which is nearly 10 points lower than the posted total tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 50-16 (75.8%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
This play falls into another system that is 30-5 (85.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|05-05-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz UNDER 202.5||102-90||Win||100||23 h 29 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202.5
Oddsmakers continue to set the total too high in this San Antonio Spurs versus Utah Jazz series. Game 1 was set at 205.5 and finished with 197 combined points, and Game 2 was set at 202.5 and finished with 197 combined points as well. They have set Game 3 at 202.5, and it's once again too many points.
The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That favors the defenses as teams know how to take away the offensive strengths of the opposition. After the Spurs average 110 points/game in the first two games of this series, I have no doubt that Utah will make the proper adjustments to slow down San Antonio.
Utah has averaged 88.3 points/game in their last three meetings with San Antonio, so the Spurs have them figured out. The Jazz have been a solid defensive team at home all season, allowing just 95.9 points/game in Salt Lake City. The Spurs give up 96.2 points/game on the season.
This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.
Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-05-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||103-97||Win||100||21 h 59 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -1.5
This series is over. It's just like the Los Angeles Lakers last year when they got swept by the Mavericks. The Lakers should have won the first two games of that series, but they lost both and did not really show up in Games 3 and 4.
The Mavericks should have won at least one of the first two games in Oklahoma City, but they lost both and were blown out in Game 3. Knowing that no team has ever come back to win a series from an 0-3 deficit, the Mavericks feel like they are already beaten and won't show up in Game 4.
The Thunder are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 35-15-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings. The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the Thunder in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-05-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 187||Top||86-87||Win||100||18 h 59 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 187
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are highly likely to play in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this all-important Game 3 tonight. I know the first two games went OVER, but there's no question shots will be tougher to come by as the defense gets amped up with the series tied 1-1.
The Game 1 total was set at 183.5, and the Game 2 total was set at 184.5. They have jacked this total up to 187, providing us with a lot of value on the UNDER. The first two games of this series have been out of the ordinary as their three regular season meetings saw 179, 186 and 187 combined points.
This play falls into a system that is 35-9 (79.5%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season.
The Clippers are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.
|05-04-12||Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 179||Top||74-79||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179
The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Game 3. The first two games in Chicago were unusually high-scoring, but I have no doubt that defense will prevail in this all-important Game 3.
The fact of the matter is that the Bulls simply play in more low-scoring games when Derrick Rose is not on the floor. They average 7 less points/game offensively, and give up 4.5 points less defensively. Philly isn't going to shoot anywhere near 59.0 percent again in Game 3 like they did in Game 2.
This play falls into a system that is 47-19 to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (Chicago) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
Chicago is 23-7 to the UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 18-6 in Bulls last 24 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 27-12 in 76ers last 39 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|05-03-12||Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||95-79||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Mavericks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a huge mental edge heading into this one. They won the first two games of this series by a combined 4 points, so they'll be the team that is confident down the stretch once this one goes right down to the wire.
OKC already came into this series with a chip on their shoulder having lost to Dallas in five games in the Western Conference Finals last year. They aren't about to let up with a 2-0 lead, instead I fully expect them to go in for the kill tonight.
The Thunder have won the first two games despite poor shooting from Kevin Durant, who is just 15-of-44 from the field. You have to expect he's going to turn it on in Game 3, and I certainly like his mindset with the following comments.
"That's what it's all about. That's why I'm a winner. That's what I want to be labeled as, a guy that wins games," Durant said. "I know I'm not shooting the ball well but I'm just trying to do other things. I can't dwell on the last two games. I've just got to move on. Move on. We'll see what happens in the next game."
The road team is 34-15-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. The underdog is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. The Mavericks are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 Thursday games. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games. Take Oklahoma City Thursday.
|05-02-12||Utah Jazz +11.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||Top||83-114||Loss||-109||8 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +11.5
After losing by 15 points to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, I have the Utah Jazz putting up a much better fight in Game 2. This is a team that heads into the playoffs red-hot, and they're not about to let one bad performance slow them down.
Remember, Utah won five straight games heading into the postseason. That includes three victories over playoff contenders, including their all-important 100-88 win over Phoenix. This is a team that believes they can win when few outside their locker room think they can.
The Spurs are simply overvalued in this spot. San Antonio has only beaten Utah three times in their last 14 meetings by more than 10 points. Utah is simply a better team than they get credit for, while the Spurs are getting too much respect with their No. 1 seed.
This play falls into a system that is 33-10 (76.7%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|05-01-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5||Top||100-104||Loss||-107||30 h 56 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should be a bigger favorite in Game 2 tonight. That's evident by the way that this team dominated the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 en route to a 103-88 victory. L.A. finally put a full four quarters together, and I expect more of the same tonight as they are now in playoff mode.
Los Angeles simply has a huge mismatch inside in this series as the Nuggets don't have anyone to defend Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol consistently. Defensively, Bynum and Gasol make life miserable for these undersized Nuggets, as evident by Bynum's 10 blocks in Game 1. Dener shot 14-of-44 (32 percent) in the paint when Bynum was on the floor.
This is a very hungry team after getting swept in the playoffs last year by the Dallas Mavericks, so don't expect them to take the Nuggets lightly in Game 2 after a strong Game 1 performance.
The Lakers were nearly unbeatable at home this season while posting a 27-7 record at Staples Center. They have posted a 30-5 home record against the Nuggets in all meetings at Staples since 1996.
The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Los Angeles is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with Denver. Bet the Lakers Tuesday.
|04-30-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 195||Top||99-102||Loss||-110||11 h 59 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 195
The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder played in a thrilling 99-98 contest in Game 1 for 197 combined points. I look for more defense to be played tonight, and less points for both teams. They combined for 55 points in the 4th quarter alone to have Game 1 going OVER the posted total of 192.5.
They have jacked this total up a full 2.5 points from the Game 1 line, providing us with great value on the UNDER. Remember, the UNDER was 3-0 in the final three meetings of 2012 between the Thunder and Mavs. They combined for 187, 181 and 186 points in their previous three meetings, respectively.
The UNDER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Oklahoma City. The UNDER is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 Monday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|04-29-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5||Top||88-103||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are getting no respect in their Game 1 showdown with Denver. As only a 4.5-point home favorite, I'll pull the trigger on the Lakers. This is one of the best teams in the league when they want to be, and they own the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers are 29-5 against the Nuggets at home since 1996. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|04-28-12||Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers||81-77||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9.5
The Orlando Magic are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight because they don't have Dwight Howard. As a result, the Magic are showing tremendous value in Game 1.
The Magic have been playing without him long enough that they know how to. This team is getting written off heading into the playoffs because they don't have Howard, and I believe they use it as motivation.
The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Indiana is way overvalued here. Take Orlando Saturday.
|04-28-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8.5
Evan Turner of the Philadelphia 76ers has been calling out the Chicago Bulls as they're the team they wanted to face. I believe the Bulls make a statement Saturday with a double-digit blowout victory in Game 1.
The Bulls are 26-7 at home this season, while the 76ers are 16-17 on the road. That includes an 89-80 home victory for the Bulls in their most recent meeting on March 17th.
The 76ers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Bet Chicago Saturday.
|04-26-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +4||Top||104-84||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +4
The New York Knicks don't seem overly concerned about where they start their postseason regardless of the outcome of their regular-season finale. The Charlotte Bobcats, however, have plenty of incentive to win Thursday night to avoid capping an utterly miserable and potentially record-setting season of futility.
The Knicks will play either the Bulls or Heat in the first round of the playoffs pending the outcome of this game, and they really don't care who. "Right now it really doesn't matter," Knicks star Carmelo Anthony said. "Whoever we play, we'll have to start on the road anyway, so we just want to start just preparing for whether it's Chicago, whether it's Miami, just get ready to go."
New York clearly does not care about the outcome of this game considering they are resting Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries. Also, Jeremy Lin remains out with a knee injury. Without these six players, you could argue that Charlotte will actually have more talent on the floor tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Charlotte) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Bobcats are the team with something to play for tonight, and that's why I'm backing them. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|04-26-12||New Jersey Nets +8 v. Toronto Raptors||67-98||Loss||-110||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8
The Toronto Raptors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Both the New Jersey Nets and the Raptors are struggling down the stretch, and this line has clearly been inflated. New Jersey has lost five in a row while Toronto has dropped four straight.
The Nets will be playing mostly players that are trying to prove that they belong in the league. They are also trying to play for a roster spot next season. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing inspired basketball tonight because of the players they'll have on the floor.
New Jersey is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Nets Thursday.
|04-25-12||Los Angeles Clippers +4 v. New York Knicks||Top||93-99||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +4
While the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last night, they still have something to play for. Los Angeles can no longer win the Pacific Division, or the No. 3 seed in the West. However, the Clippers are still battling Memphis for the No. 4 seed.
That means home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is at stake, which is huge. Los Angeles would get the No. 4 seed with either a win over New York tonight, or a Grizzlies loss to the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. The Clippers certainly want to just take care of business tonight and not leave it in Memphis' hands.
While New York mathematically is still alive for the No. 6 seed in the East, they realize their chances are slim to none. The Knicks would need to go 2-0 the rest of the way while the Magic would have to go 0-2. Fat chance considering the Magic play the Bobcats tonight and are a 14.5-point favorite. New York isn't nearly as concerned about winning this game as Los Angeles is.
The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. Blake Griffin has scored 65 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in two career games against the Knicks. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|04-24-12||Phoenix Suns +5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||88-100||Loss||-106||11 h 13 m||Show|
20* Suns/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +5
The Phoenix Suns should not be a 5-point underdog to the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a game that I believe Phoenix wins outright. The Suns have the more veteran team with playoff experience that will shine through in this elimination game.
If Phoenix wins Tuesday, it would lock up the eighth seed with either a victory over West-leading San Antonio on Wednesday or a Utah loss versus Portland the following night. A Phoenix loss tonight and the Suns would be eliminated from the playoffs, giving the Jazz the No. 8 spot.
This is one team that the Suns clearly match up well against. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven meetings with Utah. That includes four straight wins at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Three of those four road victories came by double-digits.
Utah is 1-10 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Throw in the fact that the Suns are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings and we have a combined 42-2 System backing Phoenix. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|04-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. New Jersey Nets +9.5||Top||105-87||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +9.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. I believe this line has been inflated due to the fact that Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win. New Jersey does not want to see them do it on their home floor, so I look for the Nets to put up a good fight here.
The Nets have shown they aren't going to quit by winning six of their last 13 games overall. They have played six straight playoff contenders, including Philadelphia twice. They split both meetings with the 76ers, and this team is certainly battle-tested right now.
Philly has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well at all. The 76ers have lost seven of their last 11 games overall. While Philadelphia looks to the future, New Jersey (22-42) will honor its past in its final home game in the Garden State after 35 years. They'll be moving to Brooklyn next year, so the Nets certainly want to finish a winner in their final home game in New Jersey.
The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Monday.
|04-21-12||Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns -4||Top||118-107||Loss||-105||7 h 20 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Phoenix -4
The Phoenix Suns would be the No. 8 seed if the season were to end today. They are tied with ninth-place Utah at 33-30, but own the tiebreaker. Obviously, tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is huge for Phoenix.
The Suns have been great since the All-Star Break, posting a 19-10 record. That includes a 12-3 mark at home. They showed great resiliency two nights ago as they trailed the Clippers most of the way, but found a way to win 93-90 in the end. That win gives this team a lot of confidence going forward.
Phoenix has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Denver. The Nuggets only have one win in Phoenix since 2004, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Bet Phoenix Saturday.
|04-20-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 203||Top||97-121||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 203
The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will be playing for a 3rd time in 10 days Friday. The familiarity between these teams is through the roof right now, which should lead to a defensive battle tonight. Both teams will be bringing the intensity on defense considering this is an important game for both squads.
San Antonio is trying to fend off Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the West. Los Angeles is trying to stay in front of the L.A. Clippers for the Pacific Division title, and the No. 3 seed in the West. Kobe Bryant is expected to return tonight for L.A., so I look for the Lakers to slow it down and try to run their offense through him.
These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. Twelve straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 203 or less combined points. In fact, 23 of the last 24 meetings between these teams have seen 203 or less combined points. That makes for 23-1 and 12-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set, which is currently up to 204 at most books. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 198||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
While I am taking Phoenix to cover the spread tonight, there's no question that both teams will be tired in this one. I just think that the Suns have the extra motivation they need to play through the tiredness, plus they are the deeper team so they'll handle this situation better.
Both Phoenix and Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days. This will certainly hurt the Clippers more as their bench is much thinner than that of the Suns. Given the circumstance, I have no doubt that these teams will take part in a defensive battle as points are hard to come by.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. That includes 3-0 in the first three meetings this season where these teams have combined for 159, 178 and 189 points, respectively. Given what's at stake, I fully expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively.
The UNDER is 14-2 in Suns last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. As previously state, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 28-2 (93%) System backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
I'm siding with the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that is much more important for them than it is for the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Clippers are only worried about playoff positioning after already clinching their spot, the Suns are still trying to earn a spot in the postseason.
Phoenix is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, just a half-game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot. To say this is a must-win would be an understatement. Phoenix has handled the pressure well, going 18-10 since the All-Star break, which includes an 11-3 home record.
The Clippers have basically been a punching bag for the Suns in recent years. Phoenix has won 13 of the last 15 meetings in this series. The Suns have won nine straight home meetings with the Clippers as well. They have not lost a home game against L.A. since 2007. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|04-18-12||New York Knicks v. New Jersey Nets +8.5||Top||104-95||Loss||-107||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value tonight as an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Knicks. I believe the New York Knicks are in for a big letdown tonight after their 118-110 win over the Boston Celtics last night.
New Jersey has shown that they are going to play out their season. The Nets have gone a respectable 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They nearly beat the Miami Heat on Monday, losing 98-101 despite playing without Deron Williams.
New York was fired up to face Boston last night after having struggled mightily against the Celtics in the past. The Knicks hit a ridiculous 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range, and still only won by eight points. There's no way they shoot that well on consecutive nights.
The Knicks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. New Jersey is going to have no problem getting up to face their crosstown rivals. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|04-18-12||Chicago Bulls -12 v. Charlotte Bobcats||100-68||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12
Following a very bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, the Chicago Bulls will bounce back with a blowout victory over the NBA's worst team in the Charlotte Bobcats. Whether or not Derrick Rose plays tonight the Bulls are going to run away with this one.
Chicago still has a lot to play for as they want to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East. They also want the No. 1 overall seed in the league, so they're not about to take the Bobcats lightly. The Bulls took care of business in their last meeting with Charlotte on February 10th as they rolled to a 95-64 road victory.
The Bobcats are just 7-53 on the season and it's clear by watching them that they simply don't have the talent to compete in this league. Charlotte is 0-17 SU & 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Not only do they not have the talent, but the Bobcats have packed it in.
The Bulls are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|04-17-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5||Top||112-91||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
25* Spurs/Lakers TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 199.5
I have the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs playing part in a defensive battle tonight. These teams match up very well against one another defensively, and that has certainly been proven throughout the years.
Eleven straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for 22-1 and 11-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
The Lakers are likely to be without Kobe Bryant again tonight. Without Bryant on the floor, the Lakers certainly struggle offensively. They also try and slow down their offense and run it through their two big men in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This slows the tempo and makes for more of a half-court game.
Los Angeles just beat San Antonio 98-84 on the road on April 11th for 182 combined points. The Spurs are 82-47 to the UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1996. The Lakers are 9-1 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Spurs last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-6 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is also 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|04-17-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. Detroit Pistons||77-116||Loss||-107||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the "under the radar" teams that I have been following quite a bit to end the season. This team has proven that they aren't going to pack it in. The Cavaliers have several players right now who are trying to prove they belong in the NBA, while also auditioning for a spot on Cleveland's roster come next season.
The Cavaliers have gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Detroit has gone 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall, and the Pistons should not be this heavily favored tonight. Off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Chicago, Detroit is in for a letdown in this spot.
It was easy for the Pistons to get up emotionally to face the Bulls, but it won't be so easy to get mentally prepared to face the Cavaliers. It's simply human nature for a team to give it their all against another team that is going to be in the playoffs. It's also human nature for a team like the Pistons to not get up emotionally to face a squad like the Cavaliers, who will not be making the playoffs.
Detroit is 33-57 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1996. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|04-16-12||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -12.5||Top||87-84||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12.5
The Chicago Bulls should roll at home tonight over the lowly Washington Wizards. While the Wizards are 14-46 on the season, the Bulls are 46-14 and looking to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East as quickly as possible. Plus, they are also after the No. 1 overall seed in the NBA, so they'll certainly be motivated.
While Chicago has a lot still to play for, the Wizards appear to have packed it in. They lost at New York 65-103 on Friday, followed by an 89-98 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. The nature of both of those losses shows that the Wizards have basically quit trying.
Derrick Rose will be making his 3rd consecutive start for Chicago since returning from injury. He had 24 points and 9 assists against the Pistons last night, and I believe Rose will be even more comfortable while having an even bigger game tonight.
Chicago has won seven straight over Washington, and three of their last four victories have come by 14 points or more. The Wizards are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Washington is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast foes. Bet Chicago Monday.
|04-16-12||New Orleans Hornets v. Charlotte Bobcats +6.5||75-67||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5
There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league this season. However, there comes a time when you just have to back them because you cannot pass up on the value they're showing. That's the case tonight as a 6.5-point home underdog to the New Orleans Hornets.
New Orleans has picked up some big wins of late, but that's the reason they are overvalued in this spot. The Hornets are still just 18-42 on the season, and they have no business being this heavily favored on the road. Off three straight home wins over the Kings, Jazz and Grizzlies, the Hornets are in for a huge letdown tonight.
The Hornets are 0-8 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Hornets are 2-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|04-15-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 190.5||Top||108-112||Loss||-119||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 190.5
The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their 4th meeting this season, with two of the first three meetings seeing 143 and 187 combined points.
Kobe Bryant is doubtful for Los Angeles with a shin injury, which means points will be harder to come by for the Lakers. It also means that they will slow down the tempo and look to get the ball inside to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in what will be a half-court game. The Lakers are 3-0 to the UNDER in their last three games without Bryant.
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Mavericks give up just 93.7 points/game this season, while the yield 94.7 points/game, including 91.1 points/game at home. Dallas is only scoring 93.4 points/game on the road. These teams would have to average 95.5 points tonight for this game to go OVER, and I don't see either topping 95.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 17-5 in Lakers last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-14-12||Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks -3||Top||105-99||Loss||-103||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3
The Milwaukee Bucks simply have to win tonight if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Milwaukee (29-30) is two games behind both New York and Philadelphia for the final two playoff spots in the East. There's no question Milwaukee will be motivated at home tonight against the Pacers.
Indiana can can almost relax now considering they are in great position to take the No. 3 seed in the East. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be 12th game in 18 days. They'll have a hard time keeping up with Milwaukee in this one.
The Bucks like to play at a fast pace since they traded for Monta Ellis. Milwaukee has scored 104-plus points in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The Bucks are 14-6 in their last 20 games and they're clearly one of the best teams in the league over the past month.
The Pacers are 11-28 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bucks are 31-17 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Bet Milwaukee Saturday.
|04-13-12||Dallas Mavericks -3 v. Portland Trailblazers||97-94||Push||0||12 h 32 m||Show|
15* Mavs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3
The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to just make the playoffs. Dallas (33-26) would be the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. The Mavericks are 2 games ahead of ninth-place Utah and 2.5 games ahead of tenth-place Phoenix.
There's no question the Mavericks will be motivated in each game they play from here on out, which should bring out the best of them. Dallas has won and covered two straight with a 110-100 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday, then a 112-103 road win at Golden state on Thursday.
I look for the Mavericks to continue playing well against Portland tonight. The Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-110 home victory over Golden State Wednesday, but this team is all but eliminated from the playoffs. They'll have a tough time getting up to play every game from here on out.
Portland has only won back-to-back games once since late January. This team has been playing terrible for quite some time, and ownership has basically decided to rebuild by trading away Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. Making matters worse is the fact that leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury.
This has been a thrilling series this season, with both meetings going into overtime. However, the Blazers have no chance tonight without their best player. Aldridge has scored 58 points while grabbing 24 rebounds in their first two games against Dallas this season, and that's production that they simply cannot replace.
The Mavericks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Dallas is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 1-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, failing to cover 93% of the time. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.
|04-13-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +12 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||83-102||Loss||-107||8 h 3 m||Show|
25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12
The Cleveland Cavaliers represent the best underdog for the entire 2011-12 season Friday. Cleveland continues to fight despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they are catching way too many points here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
The betting public has not wanted to back Cleveland since PG Kyrie Irving went out with an injury. But the Cavaliers have been a money-making machine since, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They won twice outright, lost twice in overtime and lost by 9 at Milwaukee.
Cleveland has a bunch of players right now that are fighting to prove that they belong in the NBA, and they are auditioning for jobs next season. Lester Hudson is the perfect example, averaging 23.3 points in his last four games, including an incredible 12.5 points in the fourth quarter.
The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana is 2-1 against Cleveland this season, but both of their wins came in overtime. Cleveland beat Indiana 98-87 on February 15th. This is a home-and-home situation as the Pacers beat the Cavs 104-98 (OT) on Wednesday.
I almost always take the team that lost the first of a home-and-home situation in their second game. That's because the winning team has a hard time getting up emotionally to beat a team that they just beat a day or two ago. Meanwhile, the team that lost the first game is out for revenge and has no trouble getting motivated.
The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Pacers. Bet Cleveland Friday.
|04-12-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5||Top||97-107||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5.5
The San Antonio Spurs are very hungry for a win tonight following rare back-to-back losses heading in. The Spurs lost at Utah 84-91 on Monday mainly because they sat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli for rest. San Antonio lost 84-98 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Perhaps they didn't get up for that game since Kobe Bryant wasn't playing.
One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies have the Spurs' full attention tonight. San Antonio has not lost three in a row all season, and they're not about to start Thursday. Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are overvalued in this spot.
Remember, San Antonio lost to Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season, so the Spurs want revenge. The Spurs have gotten plenty of revenge thus far, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Memphis this season. They want to stick the dagger in and twist it tonight by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0.
The Spurs are 23-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. The Grizzlies are 13-16 on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.2 points/game at home, while Memphis is putting up a mere 91.8 points/game on the road.
The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|04-12-12||Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||86-96||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* Heat/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5
The Chicago Bulls have been the best team in the league this season despite playing without Derrick Rose for much of it. The Bulls are 44-14 this season, including 16-7 without Rose, to grab ahold of the No. 1 seed in the East and in the NBA.
Rose is expected to return tonight from an ankle injury, so getting the Bulls as a mere 1.5-point home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Chicago has 82 consecutive home sellouts at the United Center, and these fans will be rocking as a Bulls win would all but assure them of the No. 1 seed in the East.
Miami has not been playing well of late, and it's not just going to change tonight against the best team in the NBA. The Heat lost 115-107 at home to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, allowing them to shoot 60.6 percent from the floor. In the last 10 games, the Heat have yielded an average of 95.8 points on 47.3 percent shooting, the latter notably higher than their season mark of 43.2 percent.
Chicago is 23-6 at hom this season, while Miami is just 16-12 on the road. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, failing to cover the spread 88% of the time. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Miami. Take Chicago Thursday.
|04-11-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 201.5||98-84||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Spurs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 201.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a great rivalry as these two teams have been the top contenders in the Western Conference over the last decade. Defense usually reigns supreme.
Ten straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. Dating back further, 21 of the last 22 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
The Lakers are really going to miss Kobe Bryant offensively. They struggled in their last game without him, beating the Hornets 93-91 for 184 combined points. The Lakers are trying to slow it down offensively and run their offense through Bynum and Gasol without Bryant on the floor. They cannot afford to run with the Spurs, and will not try to tonight.
The UNDER is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 22-8 in Spurs last 30 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-11-12||Indiana Pacers v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5||Top||104-98||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 8.5 points at home against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are the team in the playoff hunt, the Cavaliers have showed no signs of packing it in. I look for Cleveland to give Indiana all they can handle.
The Cavaliers do have some injury concerns right now with Kyrie Irving out and Anderson Varejao questionable, but they have actually been playing better without Irving. Many players are getting a chance to prove that they belong in the league, and they are making the most of their opportunities.
Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes a road win at Toronto and a 13-point home victory over the Bobcats. They also gave the Bucks and Nets all they could handle on the road in losing efforts. Guard Lester Hudson is one player taking advantage of the extra playing time, averaging 24.7 points in his last three games.
The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana won the first meeting on December 30th at home by a final of 98-91 in overtime. Cleveland would get their revenge with a 98-87 home victory on February 14th. The home team has won four of the last five, and I look for the home dominance to continue tonight.
Indiana is 0-11 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season, losing by an average score of 88.8 to 95.1 in this spot. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends make for an 18-0 system backin Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|04-10-12||Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards OVER 195||Top||85-93||Loss||-108||8 h 36 m||Show|
25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Wizards OVER 195
The Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards should easily combine for 196-plus points tonight, and I'm expecting 210-plus by game's end. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set given the circumstances heading into this one.
Dwight Howard, the best defensive 'eraser' in the game who can make of for teammates mistakes defensively, is listed as doubtful with a back injury tonight. Without Howard last night, the Magic beat the Detroit Pistons 119-89 for 208 combined points.
Not only does Howard make their defense twice as good, he is also the player that their offense runs through. Without having to run their offense through Howard, the Magic can now play a more up-tempo game with a smaller line-up. That's what they did against Detroit, and that's what they'll do against Washington tonight.
The Wizards are also without two of their best defensive players in C Nene and F Trevor Booker, who are each listed as doubtful with foot injuries. The Wizards were without these two last night against Charlotte, and they exploded for 113 points in a 28-point victory over the Bobcats.
The last two meetings in this series went OVER the posted total with a 109-103 home victory for Orlando and 212 combined points on February 1st, and a 102-95 road victory for the Magic and 197 combined points on February 29th.
The OVER is 6-2 in Orlando's last 8 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog. These last three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|04-09-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||109-89||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3
The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. While I have been riding the Bucks a lot lately against some of the weaker competition in this league, and they have been playing well, now is the time to fade them.
The Bucks are 19-4 against teams below .500 this season, but just 9-24 against teams above .500. After losing three of their last four, the Thunder are a very inspired team right now. They will be going after Milwaukee with everything they have tonight, especially considering they are tied with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the West.
Milwaukee is 45-71 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|04-08-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. New Jersey Nets||Top||117-122||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cleveland Cavaliers since Kyrie Irving went down with an injury. As a result, Cleveland is showing great value today against the New Jersey Nets, who should not be favored by 7.5 against any team in this league. I don't see the Nets being too motivated to play the Cavaliers tonight, which will make it tough for them to cover this large number.
Because their lines have been inflated of late, the Cavaliers have covered two straight with a 9-point loss at red-hot Milwaukee as a 12.5-point underdog, and an 84-80 outright win at Toronto as a 7-point dog. I can see them winning this game outright as well.
While the Cavaliers are without Irving, they have actually had other players step up in a big way. Antawn Jamison poured in 25 points against the Raptors, and Lester Hudson came off the bench to score 23 points. They have several players that are ready to take advantage of their opportunities.
The Nets are 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 0-10 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These three trends make for a 25-1 (96%) System backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
|04-07-12||Boston Celtics +2 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||86-72||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +2
This line screams take Indiana as a small home favorite after their huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I'm going the other way. Off such a huge win, the Pacers are in for a big letdown tonight against the Boston Celtics. I expect the Celtics to win this one going away.
Indiana is a very tired team now. The Pacers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Thunder last night, so they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back. Plus, this will be Indiana's 8th game in 11 days! Fatigue will be a factor for the Pacers tonight.
Off consecutive losses to two of the best teams in the league in the Spurs and Bulls, and trailing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Celtics will be extremely motivated for a win here. I look for Boston to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.
Indiana is 0-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Take this combined 19-0 system backing Boston straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|04-06-12||Golden State Warriors +8 v. Utah Jazz||98-104||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Golden State Warriors +8
The Golden State Warriors continue to fight despite knowing they are not going to make the playoffs this season. They are trying to play the role of spoiler, and they are giving some of the best teams in the league a run for their money of late. I look for them to give the Utah Jazz all they can handle tonight.
The Warriors are a very profitable 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Warriors have had Utah's number in recent meetings, winning three of the last five by 15, 7 and 18 points. Utah's two victories over Golden State during this stretch came by finals of 88-87 and 99-92 (OT).
Utah is 1-9 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Utah is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Warriors Friday.
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