|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-09-18||Purdue v. Texas +2.5||Top||68-72||Win||100||5 h 20 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +2.5
It’s safe to say the Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They opened 5-0 with wins against Arkansas and North Carolina, but not they’ve lost three straight to Michigan State, Redford and VCU. They want to get back in the win column here tonight in a bad way.
Purdue is coming off a 62-60 home win as 9-point favorites over Maryland. Now they step out of conference here. They only have two days’ rest after playing on Thursday, while Texas has three days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday.
While Texas has four returning starters, Purdue has just one returning starter and has been grossly overvalued this season. The Boilermakers also have three losses this year, and they are 0-2 in true road games losing to Michigan and Florida State by an average of 10 points per game.
The Boilermakers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Purdue is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a home dog of 3 points or less or PK. Bet Texas Sunday.
|12-09-18||Nevada v. Grand Canyon +11||74-66||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Grand Canyon +11
Nevada (9-0) is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after its unbeaten start and No. 6 ranking. Now the Wolf Pack are being asked to lay double-digits in what is essentially a home game for Grand Canyon at Talking Stick Resort in Phoenix.
Dan Majerle is doing big things at Grand Canyon, and it helps that they have some of the best facilities and weather in the country, which has helped him get recruits. Grand Canyon is 5-3 this season with all three losses coming by 9 points or less, and they were all on the road to the likes of Utah, Seton Hall and South Dakota State.
But what I really like about this game is the fact that Grand Canyon is rested with seven days in between games having last played on December 1st. Nevada just played on Friday, December 7th in a hard-fought 72-66 win over Arizona State in Los Angeles. So the Wolf Pack only have one day to prepare for Grand Canyon.
That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Antelopes here. The Antelopes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolf Pack are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that will show tonight as the Antelopes give them a run for their money. Take Grand Canyon Sunday.
|12-08-18||Loyola-Chicago +9.5 v. Maryland||41-55||Loss||-108||4 h 20 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Chicago +9.5
Loyola-Chicago went 32-6 last season and made a surprising run to the Final Four. And they brought back three starters from that teams in MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer (13.2 PPG, 45.1% 3-Pointers Last Year), Marques Townes (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and Cameron Krutwig (10.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG). They’re loaded again.
However, it’s understandable Loyola-Chicago came into this season overvalued after making the Final Four. They have gone a disappointing 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS this season, and now the betting public is off of them. I think this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Rambles Saturday.
The Ramblers were favored in 8 of their first 9 games, but now they are in their biggest underdog role of the season here as 9.5-point dogs against Maryland. And this is a great spot for them. While they’ve had two days’ rest coming in, Maryland is in a very difficult travel spot.
Indeed, the Terrapons lost 60-62 at Purdue on Thursday, so they only have one day to get ready for Loyola. And they step back out of conference here off three straight difficult games against Virginia, Penn State and Purdue. I just see this as a ‘hangover’ spot off that loss to Purdue, and certainly the Terrapins could be running out of gas by now.
Loyola is a perfect 8-0 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. This isn’t a true home game for Maryland, and the Rambles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Roll with Loyola-Chicago Saturday.
|12-08-18||Georgetown +10.5 v. Syracuse||71-72||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* Georgetown/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Georgetown +10.5
The Georgetown Hoyas are getting zero respect from oddsmakers here as 10.5-point road underdogs to the Syracuse Orange. I think this is too many points, and it has shown in recent years in this rivalry that home-court advantage means nothing.
Georgetown (7-1) has already gone on the road and beaten Illinois 88-80 as 9-point underdogs in their only true road game this season, but they’ve also played a couple neutral court affairs. And they have an extra day of rest and preparation here after last playing on December 3rd, while Syracuse last played on December 4th.
Syracuse already has bad upset losses to UConn by 7 as 7.5-point favorites and Oregon by 15 as 2-point favorites, both on a neutral court. Their six wins have all come against suspect competition as favorites of 12.5 or more points, outside of their upset win over Ohio State, which was an aberration.
Series history really favors Georgetown here. The Hoyas are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Orange. All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of those came in overtime. In fact, Georgetown hasn’t lost by more than 7 points to Syracuse in any of the last 11 meetings. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Take Georgetown Saturday.
|12-05-18||Nebraska v. Minnesota +3.5||Top||78-85||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5
The No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers just got ranked in the Top 25 this week for the first time since 2014. I always love fading teams who jump into the Top 25 in all college sports when they aren’t used to being there. It’s a distraction, and it’s a sense of validation that makes them come out feeling a little too good about themselves, and not playing with the chip they had on their shoulder previously.
And this is a Minnesota team that I really like this season. The Golden Gophers returned five starters this year and are off to a 6-2 start this season. Their only two losses came in their only two true road games to Ohio State and Boston College.
Nebraska has feasted on a pretty weak schedule thus far playing just one true road game, which was a 2-point win at Clemson. They lost to Texas Tech by 18 on a neutral in their other tough game. This will be their toughest game yet here against a Minnesota team that is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game.
The Huskers are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers because they are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. But the value has been zapped, especially with their Top 25 ranking now, and that’s evident by the fact that they’re actually road favorites here against a quality Minnesota squad. They shouldn’t be favored in this matchup. The Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Huskers. Bet Minnesota Wednesday.
|12-05-18||St. Louis v. Southern Illinois -2||56-61||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois -2
I really like this Southern Illinois team, and I think they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over Saint Louis tonight. It’s an SIU team that returned all five starters from a team that won 20 games last year. They will challenge Loyola for the MVC title this season.
The Salukis returned more returning scoring options than any other team in the league. Senior guard Armon Fletcher (14.1 PPG last year), senior center Kevin Pippen (12.1 PPG), senior guard Sean Lloyd (12.1 PPG) and junior guard Aaron Cook (9.8 PPG) are all back. Plus, they get the return of forward This Bol (9.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG in 2016-17), who missed all of last season with a knee injury.
The Salukis are playing team basketball this season as they have five players averaging double-digits scoring with those four returning starters plus Eric McGill (10.8 PPG, 47.1% 3-pointers). Four of their top six scorers all shoot 43% or better from 3-point range, including three that shoot 47% or better.
Southern Illinois is 5-3 this season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule with five of their eight games on the road. Two of those losses came to Kentucky and Mass on the road, and the other was a home loss to a very good Buffalo team as dogs. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 10 on a neutral to Tulsa, by 15 at Colorado State outright as underdogs, and by 21 as 10-point favorites at SIU-Edwardsville.
Saint Louis is getting a lot of respect for its 6-1 start this season. But it has come against a very soft schedule with five of those seven as home games. The two road games resulted in a 2-point win against a rebuilding Seton Hall team, and a loss to Pittsburgh on a neutral. The home win over Butler last time out was impressive, but it also sets the Billikens up for a big letdown spot here.
Saint Louis is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 December road games. Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons. The Billikens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Saint Louis is 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference games. The Billikens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents. Saint Louis is 1-7 ATS in its lsat eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The Salukis are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. A-10 foes. Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|12-04-18||Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -1.5||Top||80-85||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Oklahoma Sooners inside Madison Square Garden tonight. While both of these teams are 6-1 on the season, it’s easy to tell that the Sooners have the more impressive 6-1 record and they should handle the Fighting Irish at home here tonight.
Notre Dame lost its top two scorers and three of its top four from a year ago in Bonzie Colson (19.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG), Matt Farrell (16.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Martinas Gene (11.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG). That’s a lot of production to have to replace.
All you really need to know is that Notre Dame lost to Radford 60-63 at home as 11.5-point favorites. And they’ve played each of their first seven games of the season at home against weak competition, so this will be their first road game and by far their stiffest test of the season. They barely beat a bad Illinois team 76-74 at home, which is the best team they’ve faced yet.
Oklahoma’s 6-1 start has been much more impressive. The Sooners have played five of their first seven games either on a neutral court or on the road. They beat both Dayton and Florida on a neutral court, and their only loss this season has come to Wisconsin on a neutral, and Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.
Notre Dame is 2-10 ATS after covering two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team that wins greater than 80% of their games over the last three seasons. Lon Kruger is a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Oklahoma. Roll with Oklahoma Tuesday.
|12-01-18||South Dakota State -3.5 v. Northern Iowa||82-50||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -3.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are a tired team right now. They’ve stayed in hotels 16 of the past 21 nights and it’s clearly affecting their play. Now they’re in another hotel for this US Bank Stadium Classic in Minneapolis to face South Dakota State tonight.
This is a very good SDSU team that returned four starters from a squad that went 28-7 last year, including 13-1 in Summit League play. They got great news in the offseason when Mike Daum announced he was returning to SDSU after initially entering his name in the NBA Draft. He has won the Summit League Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, and Freshman Player of the Year before that. He averaged 23.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG last season.
Northern Iowa gets too much love for what it has done in year’s past, but the Panthers just haven’t been very good the past two seasons. Head coach Ben Jacobson is trying to implement a more up-tempo system in this rebuilding year, and it’s not going so well. The tough travel hasn’t helped as they will now be on the road for a 7th consecutive game.
Northern Iowa is 3-4 SU and just 1-5 ATS in lined games this season. Their only wins have come against Bemidji State, Eastern Kentucky by 5 and Old Dominion by 1. They lost to Pennsylvania by 7, UT-Arlington by 9, ODU by 7 and Utah State by 19. And South Dakota State is probably the best team they will have faced yet.
Northern Iowa is 1-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last three years. The Jack Rabbits are 15-2 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Bet South Dakota State Saturday.
|11-30-18||Oklahoma State v. Minnesota -2.5||76-83||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma State/Minnesota BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued 15-17 season. And they are definitely flying under the radar in the early going. This is a Minnesota team that returned five starters from last year while also bringing in talented transfers and freshmen.
Oklahoma State loses four of its top five scorers from last year, including Jeffrey Carroll (15.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) & Kendall Smith (13.1 PPG). They also lost five of their top seven scorers who combined to average 53 points per game. That’s going to be tough to replace with just two starters returning and their leading returning starter averaging 8.7 PPG.
Minnesota is happy to be back home after four straight road games, and they’ve done well to go 5-1 this season. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two home games, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 28 as 14.5-point favorites and Utah by 9 as 8-point favorites.
Oklahoma State is 4-2 on the season. It is getting too much respect from its wins over LSU, Memphis, UTSA & College of Charleston. But they lost by 19 to Villanova on a neutral, and they suffered a big upset in their only true road game at Charlotte as 13-point favorites. If they can’t beat Charlotte on the road, they have no chance of this deep, experienced Minnesota squad.
Oklahoma State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK. Dating back further, the Cowboys are 24-45 ATS in their last 69 games as a road dog of 6 points or less or PK. Boynton is 2-9 ATS after having won four or five of his last six games as the coach of Oklahoma State. Roll with Minnesota Friday.
|11-28-18||Portland State +12 v. Stanford||67-79||Push||0||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +12
Portland State has been grossly underrated the last few seasons in non-conference play. The Vikings are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. They are coming off a 20-win season and should be competitive in the Big Sky once again this year.
The roster now has the quickness that will fit second-year coach Barret Peery’s up-tempo, high-pressure style. The Vikings do lose three starters from last year’s team, but they return Big Sky Freshman of the Year Holland Woods, who averaged 10.5 PPG and led the league in assists last year. And Peery got a large influx of talent via transfers this offseason that will help with depth.
Stanford also returns just three starters and lost three of its top four scorers from last season, including its top two in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG). It’s no wonder the Cardinal have struggled to a 3-3 start this season with its only wins coming against Seattle, UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee. All three losses came by 16 points or more.
Stanford is 1-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game over the past three seasons. Portland State is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the past two years. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes. The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents. That includes their upset 87-78 win over Stanford as 6.5-point dogs last year on a neutral court. They’ll hang around in the rematch this season. Take Portland State Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Wyoming v. Evansville -2.5||78-86||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2.5
Both Evansville and Wyoming are inexperienced teams who return one starter apiece. But I’ll gladly fade the Cowboys, who lose four of their top five scorers from last year, and are currently playing without one of their starters in Jordan Naugton due to a knee injury.
I like Evansville’s hiring of hometown legend Walter McCarty, a 10-year NBA veteran and former All-American at Kentucky. He was hired off Brad Stevens’ staff with the Celtics. He brings the program some hope, and the early returns haven’t been bad.
Evansville has gone 3-1 ATS in lined games this season. They blew out their two opponents at home, including their 22-point win over Texas Southern as 4-point favorites. Their three losses all came on the road to Illinois, Xavier and Ball State, but they covered the spread in two of those, including their 6-point loss at Xavier as 20.5-point dogs.
Wyoming has had a plethora of questionable results thus far. They lost to UC-Santa Barbara outright by 10 as 6-point home favorites and Niagara outright by 5 as 7.5-point home favorites. They also lost by 19 as 10-point dogs at Oregon State and by 12 as 8-point dogs to Boston College. They are just 1-5 ATS this season and their two wins have come against Grambling by 8 as 12.5-point favorites and by 2 over Richmond. I’m not quite sure why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers tonight based on those results.
Evansville is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 points. The Purple Aces are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Wyoming is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cowboys are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win. Bet Evansville Wednesday.
|11-27-18||NC State v. Wisconsin -6||75-79||Loss||-108||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NC State/Wisconsin ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wisconsin -6
I love fading NC State in this situation. The Wolfpack have opened 6-0 and are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it tonight. But they haven’t played anyone of any significance, and now they’ll be playing their first true road game of the season against a Wisconsin team I’m very high on.
For starters, NC State lost its two best players from last year in Allerik Freeman (16.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Omer Yurtseven (13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG). And NC State’s six wins have all come at home against the likes of Mount St. Mary’s, MD-East Shore, UNC-Asheville, Maine, St. Peters and Mercer. And they only beat Mercer by 4 as 19.5-point favorites last time out.
Wisconsin returned all five starters from last year and is a legit contender in the Big Ten. They also got some key guys back from injury and are fully healthy. They are off to a 5-1 start this year and they’ve been through the gauntlet. They beat Xavier in a true road game by 9, beat Stanford by 16 on a neutral and Oklahoma by 20 on a neutral. Their only loss came against nationally ranked Virginia by 7 as underdogs on a neutral. They are battle-tested and ready for this showdown with NC State to say the least.
NC State is 0-7 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games on the season over the last three years. Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games over the last three years. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Badgers.
NC State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Badgers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten foes. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.
|11-26-18||Eastern Michigan v. TCU -12.5||Top||69-87||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -12.5
TCU dropped from the Top 25 with its 64-73 upset loss to Lipscomb last time out. The Horned Frogs are now 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS on the season. I think this is the time to ‘buy low’ on them knowing they’ll be primed for a big effort to bounce back from that upset loss. We’ll get TCU’s ‘A’ game tonight.
It’s easy to see why TCU opened the season in the Top 25. They returned five players who started at least 14 games last season, and five players who all averaged at least 7.9 points per game, including three that averaged in double figures. This is still a very good team, but one that hasn’t played up to its potential yet. And the Horned Frogs have had five days off since that loss to Lipscomb to get better in practice and prepare for Eastern Michigan.
Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after a 74-78 loss to Detroit as 10.5-point home favorites. The Eagles are just 4-3 this season and 1-4 ATS in their lined games. Their four wins have all come at home over Rochester (by 10), Drexel (by 4 as 13.5-point favorites), Goshen and Boston U. They were blown out in their two true road games at Duke (by 38 as 26-point dogs) and at Rutgers (by 27 as 7-point dogs). Those two efforts make be believe they aren’t capable of staying within 13 points of this motivated TCU squad.
EMU is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. teams who average 16 or more assists per game. EMU is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Bet TCU Monday.
|11-25-18||Miami-FL -5 v. Seton Hall||81-83||Loss||-103||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Miami/Seton Hall ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -5
Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity. That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.
That trio is irreplaceable. It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard. That has been evident in two games for the Pirates this season. They lost 57-80 at Nebraska as 8-point underdogs, and lost outright as 6-point favorites in a 64-66 home loss to Saint Louis. I think the fact that they’ve won and covered their first two games of this Wooden Legacy Tournament has them overvalued, because wins over Grand Canyon and Hawaii are far from impressive.
Miami returned four players from last year that averaged at least 8.8 points per game each, and several other key reserves. It’s no surprise that the Hurricanes are off to a 5-0 start this season. And I think they should be bigger favorites tonight against this rebuilding Seton Hall squad.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Seton Hall) - a good team from last season that won 60% to 80% of their games playing a team that had a winning record, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Miami Sunday.
|11-23-18||Baylor v. Ole Miss +2.5||70-78||Win||100||21 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +2.5
The Baylor Bears are in a rebuild under Scott Drew this season. They lost each of their top four scorers from last year in Manu Lecomte (16.2 PPG), Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (14.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG), Terry Maston (11.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Nuni Omot (9.9 PPG). That’s 51.5 points per game lost from last season. You simply don’t just replace those four players.
The signs were there that this would be a rebuilding season from Game 1. Baylor lost 69-72 at home to Texas Southern as 22-point favorites. They also only beat lowly Prairie View A&M 91-80 as 16.5-point favorites. And now the Bears will be playing their first road game of the season here Friday.
The Ole Miss Rebels hired Kermit Davis from Middle Tennessee this offseason. Davis won at least 24 gams six times in his 16 years with the Blue Raiders. He was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the offseason. And the cupboard wasn’t bare as the Rebels returned three starters, led by All-SEC caliber G Terence Davis (13.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG last year), plus two breakout candidates in F Bruce Stevens (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Breein Tyree (10.8 PPG).
I’ve been impressed with the job Davis has done already. The Rebels are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS, beating Western Michigan 90-64 as 14-point home favorites and Nicholls State 75-55 as 18.5-point home favorites. They also gave Butler a run for its money in its only true road game thus far, only losing 76-83 as 9-point underdogs. I have no doubt the Rebels are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs.
Baylor is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet Ole Miss Friday.
|11-21-18||Clemson -4 v. Creighton||Top||82-87||Loss||-105||8 h 8 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4
The 16th-ranked Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in the country. They returned three starters from a team that went 25-10 last season and reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997. And they’ve opened 5-0 this season.
Guard Marcquise Reed was the leading scorer last year and he’s back for his senior year after considering the NBA. Shelton Mitchell also tested the NBA before coming back, giving Clemson one of the ACC’s most experienced backcourts. Forward Elijah Thomas led the team in rebounding last year and is also back for his senior season. David Skara, the team’s best defender, is also back after nearly leaving to play professionally in Croatia. All four are seniors.
Creighton loses four key players from last year, including its top two scorers in Marcus Foster (19.8 PPG) and Cheri Thomas (15.1 PPG). Also gone are Roby Hegner (8.4 PPG) and Ronnie Harrell (7.0 PPG). The Bluejays only return one player who scored in double figures last season in Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG).
Creighton is 4-1, but all four wins came against bad teams in Western Illinois, East Tennessee State, Boise State and Georgia State. They lost their only game against a quality foe in Ohio State 60-69 at home as 2.5-point dogs. And now Clemson will be the best team they’ve played yet, and they are only catching 4 points here on a neutral court. It’s not enough.
Clemson is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds last game over the past three years. Creighton is 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the lsat two seasons. The Bluejays are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. Roll with Clemson Wednesday.
|11-21-18||Minnesota v. Washington -1||68-66||Loss||-105||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* Minnesota/Washington BTN No-Brainer on Washington -1
The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season. They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country.
Minnesota is coming off a 15-17 season and has been a big disappointment since Richard Pitino took over. The Golden Gophers lose two of their best players from last year in Nat Mason (16.7 PPG) and Reggie Lynch (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
I think Minnesota is overvalued right now due to opening 4-0 this season. The schedule has been easy as both Utah and Texas A&M are rebuilding teams, and wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Santa Clara are far from impressive. I think we’re getting the better team here in the Huskies at basically a pick ‘em price.
Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread over the past two seasons. The Golden Gophers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Bet Washington Wednesday.
|11-20-18||Washington -3 v. Texas A&M||Top||71-67||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
20* Washington/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -3
The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season. They have opened 3-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country.
Texas A&M lost three players to the NBA from last season in F Robert Williams, C Tyler Davis and F DJ Hogg. This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for them. And now they’ve lost their best returning player in Admon Gilder to a hamstring injury. Gilder decided to return for his senior season after considering the NBA, so this injury is a big blow for them.
The Aggies are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming 98-83 over Savannah State as 29-point favorites. They lost to UC-Irvine at home, lost by 23 to Gonzaga and lost by 5 to Minnesota yesterday. Simply put, they aren’t very good, and they should be more than only 3-point underdogs to Washington today.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Washington Tuesday.
|11-20-18||Nebraska -2 v. Texas Tech||52-70||Loss||-107||9 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in Big Ten play. Leading the way is first-team All-Big Ten guard James Palmer, who scored in double figures in 31 of 33 games and averaged 18.8 PPG. Also back is G Glynn Watson Jr (10.5 PPG), F Isaac Copeland (12.9 PPG) and F Isaiah Roby (8.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG).
These four have led the Huskers to an impressive 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season with four straight blowout victories. They beat Mississippi Valley State 106-37, SE Louisiana 87-35, Seton Hall 80-57 and Missouri State 85-62. They have covered the spread by a combined 88 points in those four games, or by an average of 22 points per game. Oddsmakers are just way off on this team.
Texas Tech is coming off an impressive 27-10 season last year. However, the Red Raiders lost a ton of talent from that team. They lost leading scorer Keenan Evans (17.2 PPG) and five of their top six scorers overall. It’s a rebuilding year for the Red Raiders this season.
The Huskers are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Red Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games. Texas Tech is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall. Take Nebraska Tuesday.
|11-19-18||Arizona v. Iowa State||71-66||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* Arizona/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Arizona PK
Arizona reloaded this season by going the transfer route. They nabbed Chase Jeter (Duke), Justin Coleman (Samford) and Ryan Luther (Pitt), who are all playing significant roles for them this season. They are among the top six scorers on the team. And Brandon Randolph (18.7 PPG) and Brandon Williams (14.3 PPG) are leading the team in scoring.
I’ve been impressed with the Wildcats thus far. They are off to a 3-0 start and handling their business with all three wins coming by 21 points or more. And they should be able to handle this Iowa State team that is missing several key players due to injury or suspension coming in.
Iowa State should be good this season, but only if healthy. They are without Lindell Wigginton, last year’s leading scorer. They are without Cameron Lard, last year’s third-leading scorer. And they are without Solomon Young and Zoran Talley Jr., who players who started for them last season. They can’t handle Arizona in their current state.
Arizona is 10-1 ATS in road games after covering two if its last three against the spread over the last three seasons. The Wildcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Take Arizona Monday.
|11-17-18||St. Louis +6.5 v. Seton Hall||66-64||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +6.5
Saint Louis is a team on the rise under Travis Ford. They are expected to challenge for an Atlantic 10 title this season, and for good reason. They return three starters who combined to average 34 points per game last season.
The Billikens are off to a 3-0 start, but they are 0-3 ATS, which I believe has them undervalued going into this game with Seton Hall Saturday. This is a game they can win outright.
Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity. That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.
That trio is irreplaceable. It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard. That was evident last time out when the Pirates lost 57-80 at Nebraska. They should not even be favored in this game, let alone 6.5-point favorites at that.
Seton Hall is 3-12 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons. Bet Saint Louis Saturday.
|11-14-18||Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova||73-46||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5
I really like the Michigan Wolverines catching 7.5 points tonight against the Villanova Wildcats. For starters, they’ll be out for revenge from their 79-62 loss to the Wildcats in the Championship Game back in April. They’ll clearly be the more motivated team in this one.
“I definitely still recall walking off the court and hearing all the Villanova fans going crazy saying, ‘Villanova national champs,” Michigan guard Jordan Poole told the Detroit News. “It was kind of sat in the back of my mind and it’s just fuel to the fire. Isaiah (Livers) and me talk about it. We want it really bad. I mean, I don’t even know how to describe it."
Villanova lost almost everyone from that team. They lost their four leading scorers all to the NBA in Jalen Brunson (18.9 PPG), Mikal Bridges (17.7 PPG), Donte DiVencenzo (13.4 PPG) and Omari Spellman (10.9 PPG). Sure, they have some talent coming in, but you simply don’t replace those four guys.
Michigan brings back three starters from their Final Four team in Charles Matthews (13.0 PPG), Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers, who combined with Eli Brooks to make 34 starts last year. They got two ESPN Top 100 recruits in Brandon Johns and David DeJulius to help contribute right away. They are neck-and-neck with Michigan State in terms off odds to win the Big Ten title this season, so they’re going to be good again.
Michigan rode its defense to the Final Four last season, and it will do so again. That has been on display in their first two games this season. They held Norfolk State to 44 points and 30.5% shooting and then Holy Cross to just 37 points and 30.8% shooting.
The Wolverines are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % of better than .600. Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Michigan Wednesday.
|11-13-18||Wisconsin v. Xavier||Top||77-68||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* Wisconsin/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK
The Wisconsin Badgers are loaded this season. They return all five starters and 95% of their scoring from last season, led by forward Ethan Happ. He averaged 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season and is one of the best big men in the country.
The Badgers were hit hard by injuries last season. But now they get three important pieces in the backcourt back from injuries in Brad Davison, D’Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. Trice and King only played in 10 games each before being sidelined last year. Also back are Khalil Iverson (8.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and 3-point specialist Brevin Pritzl (8.9 PPG).
Xavier is in rebuilding mode with head coach Chris Mack leaving for Louisville. Gone with him are each of the top three scorers from last year in Trevon Bluiett (19.3 PPG), J.P. Macura (12.9 PPG) and Kareem Kanter (10.9 PPG). Also gone are key reserves Kaiser Gates (7.2 PPG) and Sean O’Mara (6.7 PPG).
Xavier has opened 2-0, but they’ve been unconvincing home wins over IUPUI 82-69 as 18.5-point favorites and Evansville 91-85 as 20.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in both games. That 6-point win over Evansville is particularly concerning when you consider Evansville lost 60-99 at Illinois already, an Illinois team that returns just one starter this year. Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.
|11-12-18||Stanford v. North Carolina -18||72-90||Push||0||6 h 37 m||Show|
15* Stanford/UNC ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -18
The UNC Tar Heels return three starters and have their best recruiting class in years, which coincidentally comes as they emerged from years of uncertainty due to the now-resolved NCAA academic issues. This team is loaded and ready to make another Final Four run this season.
Luke Maye (16.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG last year) is the Preseason ACC Player of the Year. Cameron Johnson (12.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Kenny Williams (11.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG) are both back as well. Nassir Little (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this season) and Coby White (11.0 PPG) are two freshmen standouts who are already helping this team right away.
UNC has been impressive in winning and covering in its first two games this season. The Tar Heels won 78-67 as 10.5-point road favorites at Wofford and 116-67 as 17.5-point road favorites at Elon. And now they have their home opener here against Stanford in what should be a great atmosphere on National TV.
Stanford is a team I’m way down on this year. A magazine I trust picked the Cardinal to finish 10th of 12 teams in the Pac-12 this season, and I can see why. They have just two returning starters. They lost three double-digit scorers from last year in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG), Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and Michael Humphrey (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG). And their roster features 11 of 15 players who are freshmen or sophomores. It’s rebuilding time for head coach Jerod Haase this season.
UNC is 11-0 all-time against Stanford, including a 96-72 road victory last season. The Tar Heels have won 10 consecutive meetings against Pac-12 teams. The Cardinal are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents. The Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Pac-12 foes. UNC is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 home games. Stanford is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less last game. Take North Carolina Monday.
|11-09-18||UL-Lafayette v. Tennessee -16||65-87||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -16
The No. 6 ranked Tennessee Vols are absolutely loaded this season. They return all five starters from a team that went 26-9 last year and 13-5 in SEC play. They should be much more than 16-point home favorites over LA-Lafayette tonight. One magazine I trust has Tennessee as an Elite 8 team and the second-best team in the SEC, and I can’t disagree.
The Vols return their top six scorers from last year. They are led by Grant Williams (15.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Admiral Sheffield (13.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG). They opened their season with a convincing 86-41 victory over Lenoir-Rhyne to get their feet wet. And they should be prepared to beat down LA-Lafayette tonight.
I’m shocked this line is only 16 when you consider LA-Lafayette went just 10-21 last season. And they return just two starters from that squad. Lafayette is picked by a same magazine to finish 8th of 10 teams in the Patriot League this season. They stand no chance to compete with Tennessee here on the road.
The Vols are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. SEC opponents. Roll with Tennessee Friday.
|11-06-18||Michigan State +5.5 v. Kansas||87-92||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Kansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5.5
The Kansas Jayhawks enter the 2018-19 campaign overvalued due to their No. 1 ranking in the country. They are being asked to lay 5.5 points per to a Top 10 Michigan State team and I think it’s too much. Especially when you consider the Spartans lost less than the Jayhawks did this offseason.
The Jayhawks lose their top three scorers from last year in Devonte Graham (17.3 PPG), Svi Mykhailiuk (14.6 PPG) and Malik Newman (14.2 PPG). No question they have recruited some talented guards to take their places, but it’s going to take some time. No longer are the Jayhawks led by a veteran backcourt, which they seem to be every year.
The Spartans only have two key losses in Miles Bridges (17.1 PPG) and Jaren Jackson (10.9 PPG). But they have three double-digit scorers returning in Cassius Winston (12.6 PPG), Nick Ward (12.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and Joshua Langford (11.7 PPG). They are loaded at the guard position unlike Kansas. Having Ward opt out of the NBA Draft was huge for this team, and he’ll lead them down low.
Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas. The Jayhawks are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Michigan State Tuesday.
|04-02-18||Michigan v. Villanova -7||Top||62-79||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Villanova Championship Game No-Brainer on Villanova -7
The Michigan Wolverines have had the easiest path to the Championship Game of nearly any team in NCAA Tournament history. They haven’t had to face a 5 seed or lower in their entire path to the Final Four. They’ve faced a 14, No. 6, No. 7, No. 9 and a No. 11 on their route here.
Certainly, the Wolverines have been impressive, but now they have finally met their match in Villanova. I don’t remember seeing a team quite as dominant as these Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament. They have beaten all five opponents by 12 points or more and by an average of 17.8 points per game.
The Wildcats have no weaknesses. They are an elite defensive team, and they are the most efficient offensive team in the country. They set a Final Four record by making 18 shots from beyond the 3-point line against Kansas. But they can beat you inside and out. It’s not a team I want to be fading with the title on the line.
Villanova is 25-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Wildcats are 14-3 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots this season. Villanova is 53-21-1 ATS in its last 75 non-conference games. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Villanova Monday.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5||57-69||Win||100||27 h 19 m||Show|
15* Loyola/Michigan Final Four No-Brainer on Michigan -5
I’ve been backing both Loyola and Michigan this entire NCAA Tournament with regularity. It has worked out very well for me. But when push comes to shove here, I have to side with Michigan for a number of reasons.
Four starters, an 11-seed or lower has never made the Championship Game. It has been a great run for Loyola, but they will finally meet their match here in Michigan.
The Wolverines are the hottest team left, going 13-0 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have beaten Purdue by 9, Michigan State by 11 and Ohio State by 12 prior to the tournament. They have handled their business with relative ease in the NCAA Tournament with the exception of a tougher-than-expected game against Houston.
Loyola has been winning with smoke and mirrors, admittedly. They were fortunate to win their first three games by a combined 4 points, including two buzzer-beaters. And they were fortunate for an easy path. They got to face Nevada in the Sweet 16 and Kansas State in the Elite 8 because of all the madness in that region.
Michigan is a different animal. The Wolverines are legitimately a top defensive team in the country. They give up just 63.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting. And I love the matchup for them against Loyola’s barrage of 3-point shooters.
Michigan only allowed 5 made 3-pointers per game and only 16 attempts per game on 33.1% shooting. They run their opponents off the 3-point line. You have to be able to penetrate to beat them, and Loyola doesn’t have those penetrators. They are more of a passing team to find their shots, but Michigan will be ready for it.
The Wolverines are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Ramblers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 35-17-4 ATS in its last 56 neutral site games. Take Michigan Saturday.
|03-29-18||Penn State v. Utah +4||82-66||Loss||-105||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +4
I’ve been riding the Utah Utes hard toward the end of the season and I’m not about to stop now. Especially with them showing so much value as 4-point underdogs to the Penn State Nittany Lions in the NIT Championship Game.
The Utes are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall. They are also 11-4-1 ATS int heir last 16 games. Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, with the exception of their gutsy 69-64 victory over a game Western Kentucky team in the Semifinals.
And the Utes got to play the early game on Tuesday, so they were able to come back out to the court and watch Penn State and scout them. I think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the early game in these types of situations where there is only one day in between games. The Utes will be the more prepared team because of it.
The Utes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. Penn State is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games after having covered six or seven of its last eight games coming in. The Nittany Lions are being overvalued tonight. Roll with Utah Thursday.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky v. Utah +2||64-69||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* Western Kentucky/Utah NIT ANNIHILATOR on Utah +2
The Utah Utes are playing like an NCAA Tournament team down the stretch. They are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall. They are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games. They are being undervalued once again tonight as underdogs to Western Kentucky in the NIT Semifinals.
Each of Utah’s last four wins have come by double-digits. That includes a 26-point win over LSU and a 9-point road win at St. Mary’s in their last two games to punch their tickets to Madison Square Garden. This is a team that I have been riding and will continue to ride tonight.
No question Western Kentucky has been impressive as well in beating Boston College, USC and Oklahoma State. But both USC and Oklahoma State didn’t take the NIT too seriously because they each felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament. Now they face a team that really wants to be here in Utah.
The Utes are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games off a game where they committed 8 or fewer turnovers. Utah is 47-22 ATS in its last 69 games after two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls. The Utes are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games following a win. Roll with Utah Tuesday.
|03-25-18||Duke v. Kansas +3||Top||81-85||Win||101||5 h 0 m||Show|
20* Duke/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Kansas +3
The Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing close to home by earning the No. 1 seed. Their first two games were in Wichita, KS, and their last two are in Omaha, NE. They have had a huge following and it has certainly been an advantage.
And the Jayhawks have been dominant. They have held double-digit leads late in all three of their games against Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson. Both Seton Hall and Clemson made runs late with the game out of reach already to make the final scores closer than they appear, and cost bettors who backed Kansas, including myself.
Duke has faced the easier schedule to get here and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as the favorite in this matchup. Kansas should be favored. Duke has had to beat Iona, Rhode Island and Syracuse. This will be by far their biggest challenge, whereas Kansas has already played two stout opponents in Seton Hall and Clemson.
Duke also hasn’t faced a team that can shoot the 3-pointer like Kansas. The Jayhawks made at least 10 shots from 3-point range for the 19th time this season against Clemson. They have gone 17-2 in those games. Duke’s zone defense has been getting a lot of headlines, but the Jayhawks have the type of team that can actually exploit it. Plus, Udoka Azubuike is back healthy and playing well after scoring 14 points with 11 rebounds against Clemson.
The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS int heir last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC opponents. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Duke. Bet Kansas Sunday.
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan -4.5||Top||54-58||Loss||-107||17 h 10 m||Show|
20* FSU/Michigan Elite 8 No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5
I’ve been backing Michigan the entire tournament and I’m not about to stop now. They completely lucked out with the way this has played out as they are clearly the best team among the Elite 8 remaining in the left side of the bracket. But they have done their part since early February.
Indeed, the Wolverines are 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have beaten Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9) to close out the Big Ten season. And while they were fortunate to get by Houston, they have won and covered easily in their other two games in the NCAA Tournament with a 14-point win over Montana and a 29-point win over Texas A&M.
I think Florida State is easily one of the worst teams left in the tournament. The Seminoles didn’t pick up many impressive wins all season, and then they come out of nowhere to beat both Xavier and Gonzaga these last two games. But I think their true colors show here against one of the best teams they have faced all season in Michigan tonight.
I also like the fact that Michigan got to play the early game on Thursday. That means they were able to sit around after beating Texas A&M and watch the FSU/Gonzaga game. That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games.
The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Wolverines are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 games overall. The Wolverines are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 neutral site games. Bet Michigan Saturday.
|03-24-18||Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Kansas State||78-62||Win||100||14 h 29 m||Show|
15* Loyola/K-State Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Loyola-Chicago +1.5
I’ve been riding Loyola-Chicago hard through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament. I’m not about to stop now when they’re up against arguably the worst team they’ve had to face yet in Kansas State in the Elite 8. They already dispatched of Miami, Tennessee and Nevada, and yet here they are once again underdogs when they should be the favorites.
The Ramblers just have no weaknesses. They play elite defense, giving up just 62.4 points per game and 41.6% shooting, including only 32.9% from 3-point range. Offensively, they shoot 50.7% as a team and 39.7% from 3-point range with a plethora of their regular players being able to knock down the 3-pointer. Plus, they share the basketball better than anyone in the tournament, averaging 16 assists per game.
Kansas State caught a break getting this far. They beat an injury-plagued Creighton team, got to face UMBC after their upset over Virginia, and caught Kentucky on an off night where the Wildcats couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, especially from the free throw line. And K-State got hot from 3-point range against Kentucky despite the fact that they only shoot it at a 34.5% clip for the season. Their luck runs out tonight.
I also like the fact that Loyola-Chicago got to play the early game on Thursday. That means they were able to sit around after beating Nevada and watch the K-State/Kentucky game. That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games.
Kansas State is 0-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. Loyola is 10-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. The Ramblers are 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Loyola is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Ramblers. Take Loyola-Chicago Saturday.
|03-23-18||Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue||78-65||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* Texas Tech/Purdue Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were the best team in the Big 12 for the majority of the season. They went into Kansas and won early in the conference season back when they were at full strength.
But then injuries hit and the Red Raiders struggled down the stretch. Leading scorer Keenan Evans had turf toe, and the Red Raiders went 2-5 during that stretch. Zach Smith also missed 14 games with an injury.
But now both Evans and Smith are back to being healthy, and the Red Raiders are playing like they did earlier this season. They are basically 24-4 in games in which Evans had been healthy. This is a dangerous team and one capable of a Final Four run because they are loaded everywhere and play elite defense. They give up just 64.6 points per game and 40.3% shooting on the season.
Purdue suffered a big blow when center Isaac Haas (14.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) suffered a broken elbow in the Round of 64. The Boilermakers were fortunate to get by Butler 76-73 without him last round, but now they take a step up in class here.
The Boilermakers have been struggling for quite some time anyway, going just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Take Texas Tech Friday.
|03-23-18||Clemson v. Kansas -4.5||76-80||Loss||-109||56 h 24 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Kansas Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -4.5
Because they earned a No. 1 seed, the Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing near home. They played in Wichita, KS the first two rounds, and now they get to play in Omaha, NE the next two rounds. They will certainly have a big home-court advantage for this Sweet 16 matchup with Clemson.
I think this line is lower than it should be for two reasons. One, Kansas failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in an 83-79 win over Seton Hall. But Seton Hall couldn’t miss from 3-point range down the stretch as the Jayhawks couldn’t sustain their double-digit lead. And the Pirates even got a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover.
Conversely, Clemson had its best game of the season in an 84-53 win over rival Auburn. But that Auburn team was fading down the stretch due to injuries and was ripe for the picking. They had nearly lost in the Round of 64 the game before. So Clemson’s win over Auburn looks more impressive than it really was.
Kansas just got back stud center Udoka Azubuike (13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) for the Round of 32 matchup with Seton Hall. Now with a game under his belt, and with four days off since their win over the Pirates Saturday, Azubuike should be back in game shape and ready to dominate. Clemson is undermanned inside and will have a really difficult time dealing with him.
Clemson is 0-6 ATS after leading its last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. Kansas is 8-1-1 ATS in it last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. ACC opponents. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big 12 foes. Roll with Kansas Friday.
|03-22-18||Kansas State v. Kentucky -5.5||Top||61-58||Loss||-102||35 h 4 m||Show|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -5.5
The Kansas State Wildcats caught a lucky break getting UMBC in the Round of 32 after the Retrievers upset Virginia in the biggest upset in tournament history. They did not play well against UMBC, and were fortunate to come away with a sloppy 50-43 victory as 10-point favorites. Their luck runs out in the Sweet 16.
Now they have to go up against the buzz saw that is Kentucky. In typical John Calipari fashion, his young team has gotten better as the season has progressed and they have hit their stride. Indeed, the Wildcats are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. And now they are only being asked to lay 5.5 points to a middling Big 12 team that was fortunate just to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Not only have the Wildcats been winning during this run, they’ve been dominating. Seven of their nine wins have come by double-digits, including victories over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Alabama (by 10), Arkansas (by 15), Missouri (by 21), Alabama (by 23) and Buffalo (by 20). This game against Kansas State is actually a step down in class compared to what they’ve been up against recently.
Kentucky is 31-15-5 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games, including 7-1 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Bet Kentucky Thursday.
|03-22-18||Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5||Top||72-99||Win||100||33 h 54 m||Show|
20* Texas A&M/Michigan Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5
The line value is clearly with Michigan in this one. Texas A&M was a 7-point underdog North Carolina in its last game. But after its best game of the season, it is now just a 2.5-point underdog to Michigan. I look at UNC and Michigan as pretty equal teams, if anything the Wolverines are better.
After their best game of the season, obviously the Aggies are overvalued right now. And couple that with the fact that the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate buzzer-beating win over Houston, and it’s easy to see why this line has been adjusted so much. But I think it’s too much, and Michigan is more than 2.5 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral.
I think North Carolina was overrated and Houston was underrated as well. That was a rare test for Michigan here to close out the season. The Wolverines have been dominating, going 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Nine of those 11 wins have come by 9 points or more, including victories over the best in the Big Ten in Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9).
Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games overall rate last two seasons. The Aggies are 3-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years. Texas A&M is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games. The Aggies are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Take Michigan Thursday.
|03-21-18||Utah +7 v. St. Mary's||67-58||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Utah/St. Mary’s NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7
The way the Utah Utes are playing to close out the season, they certainly should not be 7-point underdogs to St. Mary’s with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line tonight. The Utes are 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 11-4 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15.
There’s no question the Utes are the more rested team here after they made easy work of LSU in a 95-71 victory on Monday. Meanwhile, the Gaels were in a dog fight with Washington in an 85-81 victory as 11-point favorites. And Utah is a better team that Washington in my opinion.
The Gaels aren’t playing well enough down the stretch to warrant being 7-point favorites, either. They are still disappointed they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being overvalued by oddsmakers.
These teams have played six games against common opponents this season. Utah has gone 5-1 in those games and outscored those teams by an average of 10.3 points per game. St. Mary’s has gone 4-2 in those games while only outscoring those teams by 3.7 points per game. Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and it shows that Utah is actually the better team in this matchup.
Utah is 8-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. The Utes are 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots over the last three years. St. Mary’s is 3-11 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season. The Gaels are 1-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season. St. Mary’s is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Utah Wednesday.
|03-19-18||Stanford +8 v. Oklahoma State||65-71||Win||101||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* NIT Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +8
The Stanford Cardinal have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season. They have gone 14-6 ATS in their 20 games in 2018, which has been the bulk of their Pac-12 season and into the NIT with their 86-83 win over BYU last week. Now they are catching 8 points against Oklahoma State, which is too much.
The Cowboys felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament with the way they played down the stretch. But they didn’t get in, and I have to question their motivation playing in this ‘consolation’ tournament. They did beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-68 as 11-point favorites in their opener, but now they take a big step up in class tonight.
The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents. The Cardinal are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinal are 11-4 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season. Stanford is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Roll with Stanford Monday.
|03-18-18||Marshall +12.5 v. West Virginia||Top||71-94||Loss||-108||32 h 22 m||Show|
20* Marshall/West Virginia CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Marshall +12.5
Marshall showed the world what they were capable of when they won 81-75 over Wichita State in the opening round as 13.5-point underdogs. It was just the fruits of head coach Dan D’Antoni’s labor. This is one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament because of how well they shoot the ball in D’Antoni’s system.
The Thundering Herd are a tough team to prepare for because they spread you out and shoot 28 3-pointers pe game. The result has been a high-octane offense that averages 84.2 points per game. The Thundering Herd’s top six scorers this season all shot 32.5% or better from 3-point range, led by Jon Elmore (22.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), C.J. Burks (20.5 ppg) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.9 bpg).
I think you throw in the rivalry element here and Marshall won’t just be satisfied with beating Wichita State. Now they want to upset their ‘big brother’ in West Virginia, which has decided to end the yearly rivalry unless Marshall agrees to play in Morgantown every year. The Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to exact their revenge here and end the Mountaineers’ season.
Marshall is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season. I think the lack of time for opponents to prepare for them has worked in their favor all season, and it will certainly be an advantage for them here against West Virginia. The Thundering Herd got to play the early game in this San Diego regional on Friday and got to watch West Virginia play afterward, which is also an advantage. Bet Marshall Sunday.
|03-18-18||Florida State v. Xavier -5.5||75-70||Loss||-105||31 h 12 m||Show|
15* FSU/Xavier CBB Sunday No-Brainer on Xavier -5.5
The Xavier Musketeers aren’t getting the same respect that some of these other top seeds are getting. That is evident here as they are only 5.5-point favorites over Florida State in the Round of 32. I’ll certainly trust backing the veteran Musketeers over this young Florida State squad every time.
Xavier is an elite offensive team that just put up 102 points on Texas Southern in their opener. They are scoring 84.8 points per game this season on 49.3% shooting as a team. That’s bad news for a Florida State team that has allowed 73 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games overall.
Leonard Hamilton has been known as a defensive coach in his time at Florida State, but he clearly hasn’t gotten his players to respond on that end this season. They give up 73.8 points per game on the year. And they could be without one of their best players in Terrance Mann (12.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), who suffered a groin injury against Missouri and is very questionable to play Sunday.
These teams met last year in the NCAA Tournament with Xavier winning 91-66, and I believe we will see a similar result here. The Musketeers are 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 NCAA Tournament games. The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Roll with Xavier Sunday.
|03-18-18||Syracuse v. Michigan State -8||55-53||Loss||-117||25 h 27 m||Show|
15* Syracuse/Michigan State Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -8
Give Syracuse credit for pulling off two straight upsets over Arizona State and TCU to get here after most doubted they should even be in the NCAA Tournament. But now playing their 3rd game in 5 days is too tall of a task to ask of them to even be competitive against a team the caliber of Michigan State.
The Spartans have a massive home-court edge here with this game being played in Detroit, Michigan. And I also believe this line is lower than it should be because the final score against Bucknell (82-78) was much closer than the game was. The Spartans actually led by 16 with only a few minutes left before Bucknell got hot from the 3-point line.
This is a Michigan State team that has only been beaten four times all season. They have gone 30-4 with their four losses coming to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan (twice). Syracuse isn’t in the same class as those three teams, and that will show up on the scoreboard today.
Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in road games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 19-14 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years. The Orange are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The Spartans are 14-2 ATS vs. poor passing teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three years. Take Michigan State Sunday.
|03-17-18||Seton Hall v. Kansas -4.5||79-83||Loss||-106||34 h 43 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -4.5
The Kansas Jayhawks played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. It looked like their Big 12 title winning streak was in jeopardy late in the season, but they sucked it up and have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Jayhawks cruised through the Big 12 Tournament with three straight double-digit victories in arguably the toughest conference in the country.
They even did it without star center Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg). Their guards in Graham, Mykhailiuk, Newman and Vick really stepped up in his absence. After missing their 76-60 win over Pennsylvania Thursday, Azubuike is expected back for this game against Seton Hall, which is going to make them a very dangerous team moving forward.
Kansas clearly is getting overlooked among the No. 1 seeds. That was evident as they were only 13.5-point favorites over Penn, and now they only 4.5-point favorites over Seton Hall. This despite that fact that they have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Wichita, KS. I think the price is too cheap to pass up Saturday.
I really like this Seton Hall team, but I think they are in over their heads here. They didn’t fare so well when they took a step up in competition this season. They went 0-4 against Villanova and Xavier this year, losing by an average of 9.5 points per game in those matchups. Kansas is as good or better than both of those teams.
Seton Hall played after Kansas on Thursday, which is an advantage for the Jayhawks getting to see the Pirates play afterward. And the Pirates were in a shootout with their 94-83 win over NC State, which will have taken more out of them. Seton Hall is 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last two seasons. Kansas is 8-0 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games this season. The Jayhawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday.
|03-17-18||Loyola-Chicago +6 v. Tennessee||Top||63-62||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Loyola-Chicago +6
The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley. And indeed they did just that, going 29-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference. They also went 20-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were. They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of.
There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers. For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting. They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.7% of their attempts this season. They have seven players who play regularly that shoot 34.8% or better from 3-point range. And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country. They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game, which has been the key to them shooting 50.6% as a team.
I think Tennessee is being overvalued here off its 73-47 win over Wright State. Now they are 6-point favorites here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em. It’s hard to trust this Tennessee team because they are such a streaky shooting bunch. They shoot just 43.9% on the season as a team and rely way too much on contested jumpers.
Loyola is 8-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. Tennessee is 1-7 ATS after two straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season. The Ramblers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Ramblers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a win. After winning on a buzzer-beater against Miami, the Ramblers are oozing with confidence and will be a tough out for the Vols tonight. Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday.
|03-17-18||Rhode Island +9.5 v. Duke||62-87||Loss||-102||29 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +9.5
The Rhode Island Rams are getting overlooked in the NCAA Tournament. That’s because they didn’t win their conference tournament despite dominating the regular season. They are now 26-7 on the season with four of their seven losses coming by 4 points or less. They have great senior leadership with EC Matthews and are a very balanced team.
Duke hasn’t exactly been world beaters this season at 27-7. The Blue Devils lost to both UNC and VA Tech late in the season. They have a lot of talent but haven’t exactly put it all together. I think asking them to have to win by double-digits to cover this spread Saturday is asking too much.
I also like the fact that Rhode Island got to play the first game of the Round of 64 Thursday with a 12:15 EST tip. That means after they beat Oklahoma, they got to watch Duke play Iona afterwards. I always think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game, and it will be a factor here.
The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Rhode Island is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games. The Rams are 11-4 ATS vs. teams who make 45% of their shots or better this season. Rhode Island is 13-4 ATS after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in their previous game over the last three years. Mike Krzyzewski is 9-19 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 9.5 to 12 points as the coach of Duke. Roll with Rhode Island Saturday.
|03-16-18||Syracuse v. TCU -3.5||57-52||Loss||-110||35 h 57 m||Show|
15* Syracuse/TCU Late-Night BAILOUT on TCU -3.5
The TCU Horned Frogs get the advantage of having plenty of time off to get ready for the NCAA Tournament. They had won four straight before losing their final two games, a 75-79 loss at Texas Tech in the regular season finale and a 64-66 (OT) loss to Kansas State in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.
The Horned Frogs come in undervalued because of those two tough closes losses. And they got to watch Syracuse play on Wednesday and scout them, which is also a big advantage. Now they will be ready for that Syracuse zone, which is similar to the one that they play against Baylor every year.
And TCU owned Baylor in the two meetings this season. The Horned Frogs won 81-78 at Baylor as 1.5-point favorites and shot 49.1% from the field. They also beat Baylor 82-72 at home as 5.5-point favorites and shot 54% from the floor. Clearly, they have the players and the game plan to attack a zone defense after averaging 81.5 points per game in their two meetings with Baylor this season.
Syracuse doesn’t even deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. They beat Arizona State on Wednesday despite shooting just 40.8% from the field. That’s because the Sun Devils had an off shooting night at 40.4% themselves. This a Syracuse team that is shooting just 41.8% on the season. They don’t have the firepower offensively to match TCU, which averages 83.0 points per game and shoots 49.8% on the season, including 40% from 3-point range.
The Orange are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a win, including 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. The Horned Frogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. TCU is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games. Roll with TCU Friday.
|03-16-18||Butler v. Arkansas +1.5||79-62||Loss||-106||52 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +1.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks played really well down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament. They went 8-3 SU & 7-3-1 ATS over their final 11 games. They beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Texas A&M along the way.
I think Arkansas’ style is perfect for the NCAA Tournament. They pressure you defensively, forcing 14 turnovers per game while committing just 11 turnovers per game themselves, which is a recipe for success. They can light it up on offense as they score 81.1 points per game and shoot 40% from 3-point range as a team.
Butler is not a very good defensive team, and one of their biggest weaknesses is allowing the 3-pointer. They allow opponents to make 37.4% of their 3-pointers against them this season. They have small guards that Arkansas studs Jaylen Barford (18.0 ppg, 43.4% 3-pointers) and Daryl Macon (16.9 ppg, 42.9% 3-pointers) will be able to exploit.
Butler is 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more this season. Butler is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS int heir last six non-conference games. Take Arkansas Friday.
|03-16-18||Providence +3.5 v. Texas A&M||Top||69-73||Loss||-108||49 h 46 m||Show|
20* CBB Friday Line Mistake on Providence +3.5
The Providence Friars are a veteran squad that returned all five starters from last year. That experience certainly paid off down the stretch when the Friars found themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. But they played their way in by going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS over their final six games.
The Friars beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Xavier in the Big East Tournament. Then they took Villanova to overtime in the Championship Game. They also beat Villanova earlier this season. What they’ve done against those two No. 1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier shows they can play with anyone.
I really don’t like this Texas A&M team very much. They were terrible down the stretch, going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their final seven games with two of those three wins coming by a combined 3 points. They lost starting point guard Duane Wilson in mid-February and haven’t been the same team since. They have two stud big men, but their guards are some of the worst in the tournament. And guards win out in the NCAA Tournament. I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Texas A&M is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season. Providence is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games this season. The Friars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Providence Friday.
|03-15-18||Alabama v. Virginia Tech -2||Top||86-83||Loss||-102||34 h 57 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2
The turnaround at Virginia Tech under Buzz Williams has been remarkable. The Hokies were one of the better teams in the ACC this season and finished 21-11. They beat all the best teams in the ACC, knocking off Duke, Clemson and North Carolina at home, while handing Virginia one of its two losses this season on the road.
Alabama shouldn’t even be in the NCAA Tournament. The Crimson Tide went just 19-15 this season. They went 2-6 over their final eight games, which includes home losses to Arkansas (by 3) and Florida (by 21). They were blown out by Kentucky 63-86 in their final SEC Tournament game as well.
While the Hokies play the definition of team basketball, the Crimson Tide rely too heavily on one player in freshman Colin Sexton. He averages 19.0 points per game, but shoots just 44.4% from the field. And the Crimson Tide could be without their second-best player in Dante Hall (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 72.1% FGs), who is battling a concussion and missed their last game against Kentucky.
Alabama is 0-7 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Virginia Tech is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.
|03-15-18||Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Miami-FL||64-62||Win||100||28 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +2
The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley. And indeed they did just that, going 28-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference. They also went 19-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were. They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of.
There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers. For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.2% shooting. They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.8% of their attempts this season. They have six players who play regularly that shoot 37.3% or better from 3-point range. And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country. They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game.
The Miami Hurricanes are extremely vulnerable here. It was a bad look for them in a 17-point loss to North Carolina to get knocked out of the ACC Tournament. They also lost to New Mexico State 54-63 in non-conference play as 9-point favorites. Three of their final four wins this season came by a combined 5 points. I think the Hurricanes are ripe for an upset here.
Loyola-Chicago is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 115 points or less over the last three seasons. Miami is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games this season. The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games. Roll with Loyola-Chicago Thursday.
|03-15-18||Pennsylvania v. Kansas -13.5||Top||60-76||Win||100||27 h 31 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -13.5
The Kansas Jayhawks played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. I looked like their Big 12 title winning streak was in jeopardy late in the season, but they sucked it up and went 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their final nine games.
The Jayhawks cruised through the Big 12 Tournament with three straight double-digit victories in arguably the toughest conference in the country. They even did it without star center Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg). Their guards in Graham, Mykhailiuk, Newman and Vick really stepped up in his absence. But now Azubuike is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, which is going to make them a very dangerous team.
Kansas clearly is getting overlooked among the No. 1 seeds. That is evident by the fact that they are only 13.5-point favorites here against Pennsylvania. It’s only the 2nd time in NCAA Tournament history that a No. 1 seed was favored by 15 points or less against a No. 16 seed. In fact, No. 1 seeds favored by 20 or less are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven tries. This is too short of a price to pass up.
Pennsylvania is getting a lot of love because they shot lights out against suspect competition in Ivy League play down the stretch. But we saw what happened to them when they faced a No. 1 seed in Villanova back in November. They lost that game 62-90. And this game will be played basically on home turf for the Jayhawks in Wichita, KS.
Pennsylvania is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Quakers are 1-5 ATS int heir last six NCAA Tournament games. Kansas is 6-0 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games this season. The Jayhawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Add in the 7-0 system on No. 1 seed favorites of 20 or less, and these last four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Thursday.
|03-14-18||BYU v. Stanford -2||83-86||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* NIT Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Stanford -2
Stanford was a tough out at home all season. The Cardinal went 13-5 at home this season, and they really turned it on down the stretch. I think they are being short-changed here as only 2-point home favorites over BYU in their NIT opener.
Stanford went 7-1 SU in its final eight home games. That includes wins over Arizona State (by 9), Oregon (by 35) and Washington (by 16). The only loss suffered by the Cardinal at home during this stretch came against the best team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 71-73 as 6-point underdogs.
Stanford is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or better this season. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The Cougars are 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Stanford Wednesday.
|03-14-18||Arizona State -1.5 v. Syracuse||56-60||Loss||-115||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* Arizona State/Syracuse First Four No-Brainer on Arizona State -1.5
It was a tale of two seasons for the Arizona State Sun Devils. They went a perfect 12-0 in non-conference action, beating two No. 1 seeds in Kansas and Xavier on the road, as well as topping another NCAA Tournament team in Kansas State.
But once the Sun Devils got into conference play, other teams had film on them and it was tougher to win playing teams twice a season. They went just 8-11 within the Pac-12. But now they get back outside the conference against Syracuse.
Syracuse is a team that was fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament. I believe they are one of the worst teams in the field among the bigger conferences. They lack a scoring punch and certainly did not perform well against the better teams they played. This is a good matchup for the Sun Devils as they are a great 3-point shooting team, and the key to beating the Syracuse zone is to make 3-pointers.
Arizona State is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS after scoring 85 points or more this season. Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season. Roll with Arizona State Wednesday.
|03-13-18||St Bonaventure +3.5 v. UCLA||65-58||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
15* St. Bonaventure/UCLA First Four No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure +3.5
St. Bonaventure played its best basketball of the season down the stretch to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. The Bonnies went 13-1 over their final 14 games, which includes wins over both Rhode Island and Davidson, who fellow NCAA Tournament teams.
I am very down on the Pac-12 this season, and so is the NCAA Tournament committee. The conference got just three teams into the NCAA Tournament, which is the same number as the Atlantic 10. And this UCLA team isn’t nearly as good as the one last year with Lonzo Ball and company. The Bruins are ripe for the upset here.
St. Bonaventure returned four starters this season and a veteran group. They are led by the most underrated guard duo in the country in Jaylen Adams (19.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, 45.7% 3-pointers) and Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 38.3% 3-pointers). Guards win out in the NCAA Tournament, and the Bonnies are equipped to make a run.
The Bonnies are 12-3 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bruins are 9-22 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past three years. UCLA is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss. The Bonnies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday.
|03-11-18||Kentucky v. Tennessee -1.5||Top||77-72||Loss||-110||1 h 15 m||Show|
20* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC Championship No-Brainer on Tennessee -1.5
The Tennessee Vols are the better team in this matchup. They were the second-best team in the SEC all season, and I believe they prove they are the best now with Auburn getting knocked out. This team has been grossly underrated all year.
The Vols are 25-7 SU & 18-12 ATS this season, including 12-5 SU & 12-5 ATS in all road/neutral games. The Vols have won six straight coming in, including their impressive 84-66 win over Arkansas yesterday. Tennessee beat Kentucky in both regular season meetings by 11 at home and by 2 on the road.
Kentucky is getting too much respect for its 86-63 win over Alabama yesterday. But that was a gassed Alabama team playing their 3rd game in 3 days. It was also a short-handed one as the Crimson Tide were missing a couple key players.
Kentucky is 2-11 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Vols are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats. Bet Tennessee Sunday.
|03-10-18||USC v. Arizona -3||Top||61-75||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
20* USC/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3
The Arizona Wildcats have regrouped amidst the Sean Millers news that he reportedly knew about a $100,000 payment to his top recruit. But Miller strongly denied the report, and the Wildcats have seemed to really play for him in their last few games.
The Wildcats are 4-0 in their last four games since the report. They beat Stanford by 8, Cal by 11, Colorado by 16 and UCLA by 11. Of course, it helped that they got Alonzo Trier (19.0 ppg) back from a suspension just in time for this four-game run. And their stud forward DeAndre Ayton (19.6 ppg, 11.2 rag) is playing like a man possessed.
I just don’t trust USC without Bennie Boatright to be able to beat a team the caliber of Arizona. The Trojans have had the easier path to get here and are overvalued as a result, beating Oregon State and Oregon.
Arizona is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings with USC, winning seven times by double-digits. That includes their 81-67 home win in their lone meetings with the Trojans this season.
Arizona is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last two years. Bet Arizona Saturday.
|03-10-18||West Virginia -1.5 v. Kansas||70-81||Loss||-105||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* WVU/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia -1.5
West Virginia will be highly motivated for revenge on Kansas after losing both meetings to the Jayhawks in the regular season. And they’ll have a distinct advantage this time around as they are fully healthy, while Kansas is not.
The Jayhawks have been able to get by two middle-of-the-pack Big 12 teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State without their best player. But they won’t be able to get by West Virginia without Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).
The Mountaineers will own the Jayhawks on the glass and in the paint in this one, which will be the key to victory. West Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with West Virginia Saturday.
|03-10-18||Arkansas v. Tennessee -3||66-84||Win||100||4 h 22 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3
The Tennessee Vols will be the more rested team here as they had a double-bye and only had to play one game in the SEC Tournament thus far. They are the better team as it is and should be more than a 3-point favorite against Arkansas.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are coming off two grueling wins over South Carolina and Florida by 5 and 8 points, respectively. And they play a pressing style that will wear them out and make it very tough to play well in their 3rd game in 3 days today.
Tennessee wants revenge from a 93-95 loss as 5-point underdogs at Arkansas in their lone meeting this season. The Vols are 14-5 in SEC play and have won five straight games coming in.
Tennessee is 6-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game this season. The Vols are 9-0 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. They are winning by 14.0 points per game on average in this spot. Take Tennessee Saturday.
|03-09-18||Arkansas v. Florida -3.5||Top||80-72||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5
Florida has the rest advantage in this one after receiving a double-bye. The Gators last played on March 3rd in an impressive 80-67 home win over Kentucky. They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight after closing the season on a three-game winning streak of Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky.
The same cannot be said for Arkansas, which played yesterday and was in a dog fight with South Carolina. The Razorbacks won 69-64 as 5-point favorites.
Florida has owned Arkansas. The Gators are 8-0 SU in their last eight meetings with the Razorbacks. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, winning by 18, 13, 9 and 7 points, respectively.
The Razorbacks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .400. The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Florida Friday.
|03-09-18||UCLA v. Arizona -4.5||67-78||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* UCLA/Arizona Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -4.5
The Arizona Wildcats have regrouped amidst the Sean Miller news that he reportedly knew about a $100,000 payment to his top recruit. But Miller has strongly denied the report, and the Wildcats have seemed to really play for him here in their last few games.
The Wildcats are 3-0 in their last three games since the report. They beat Stanford by 8, Cal by 11 and then Colorado by 16 in their Pac-12 Tournament opener.
Of course, it helped that they got Alonzo Trier (19.0 ppg) back from a suspension just in time for these last three games. And their stud forward DeAndre Ayton (19.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg) is playing like a man possessed.
The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Friday games. Arizona is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Roll with Arizona Friday.
|03-09-18||Memphis v. Tulsa -4||Top||67-64||Loss||-103||4 h 31 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa -4
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are playing excellent basketball down the stretch. They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 74-82 at Cincinnati as 16-point underdogs.
Now Tulsa enters the AAC Tournament with momentum and rested having last played on March 4th. The same cannot be said for Memphis, which barely escaped with a 79-77 win over South Florida as 9-point favorites yesterday.
Things are not good at Memphis right now. There are rumors that Tubby Smith will be fired and replaced by Penny Hardaway. And their best player in Jeremiah Martin (18.9 ppg) suffered a season-ending ankle injury in late February.
Tulsa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season. Memphis is 1-9 ATS revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less over the last three years. Tulsa beat Memphis 64-51 at home in their last meeting. Bet Tulsa Friday.
|03-08-18||LSU v. Mississippi State -1.5||77-80||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -1.5
With revenge fresh in their minds and being a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory here against LSU in their SEC Tournament opener.
LSU mopped the floor with Mississippi State 78-57 at home in their regular season finale. But that result was an aberration, and I agree with oddsmakers making the Bulldogs the favorite in the rematch because they are simply the better team and have been all season.
Mississippi State is 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. LSU is 0-6 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Bet Mississippi State Thursday.
|03-08-18||Georgia v. Missouri -4||62-60||Loss||-108||5 h 1 m||Show|
15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -4
The Missouri Tigers have a few key advantages here. Not the least of which is that this will basically be a home game for them played in St. Louis, Missouri. They also get Michael Porter Jr. into the lineup, the top recruit in the country for the SEC Tournament.
Then there’s the rest advantage with Missouri playing their first SEC Tournament game while Georgia had to play yesterday in a 78-62 win over Vanderbilt. The Tigers will be the fresher team, and they should win going away because of it.
Missouri crushed Georgia 68-56 in its lone meeting with the Bulldogs this season. Georgia is 6-15 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-18 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and give up 42% or less over the last three years. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. Roll with Missouri Thursday.
|03-08-18||Providence +4 v. Creighton||Top||72-68||Win||100||4 h 1 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence +4
Providence is squarely on the bubble and needs a win over Creighton to get into the NCAA Tournament. The Friars will be the more motivated team against a Bluejays team that should be in regardless of what happens in this game.
Creighton has dealt with some injuries down the stretch that have really hurt this team. The Bluejays are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They should not be favorites in this matchup.
Providence beat Creighton 85-71 in their most recent meeting this season. The Bluejays are 1-8 ATS in road games when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons. Creighton is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Providence Thursday.
|03-08-18||Boston College v. Clemson -4.5||82-90||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4.5
The Clemson Tigers have a huge rest advantage over Boston College today. The Tigers earned a double-bye in the ACC, while Boston College will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days. Given this advantage, the Tigers should be much bigger favorites here.
Clemson has owned Boston College, going 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. Four of those six wins came by double-digits. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Boston College is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 75 points or more in five consecutive games. Take Clemson Thursday.
|03-07-18||Ole Miss v. South Carolina -2.5||Top||84-85||Loss||-105||11 h 53 m||Show|
25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -2.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks should be getting more respect than they are from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point favorites against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament opener. They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season, beating Auburn, Georgia and LSU all by 9 points each in three of their last six games, while also only losing by 3 at Tennessee, by 4 at Mississippi State and by 9 at Auburn.
Ole Miss should not be getting this much respect. The Rebels have been a mess since Andy Kennedy resigned. They are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. All 10 of those losses have come by 6 points or more as they have rarely even been competitive.
Ole Miss is 0-8 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons. The Rebels are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season. The Rebels are 2-15 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year. Bet South Carolina Wednesday.
|03-07-18||Fordham v. George Washington -6||72-78||Push||0||10 h 8 m||Show|
15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington -6
George Washington played its best basketball down the stretch this season. The Colonials went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS over their final eight games with all five of those wins coming by double-digits. That includes a 72-56 home win over Fordham on February 28th, the same team they will face tonight.
Fordham was atrocious to close the season. The Rams went 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS int heir last six games, losing all six by double-digits. Now they’ll have to be the road team again here as the Atlantic 10 Tournament will be held on George Washington’s home court in Washington, DC.
Fordham is 1-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season. George Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Rams are 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 or more points over the last two seasons. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Colonials. Take George Washington Wednesday.
|03-06-18||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4.5||Top||64-73||Win||101||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -4.5
The Syracuse Orange (19-12, 8-10 ACC) must make a run in the ACC Tournament if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They are currently the first team listed on the ‘next four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. So they’ll be highly motivated to pick up a few wins here, starting with Wake Forest tonight.
The Orange helped their cause by beating a ranked Clemson squad 55-52 at home in their regular season finale. And they will certainly have a home-court advantage with the ACC Tournament being played in their home state of New York inside the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Wake Forest is just 11-19 on the season, including 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS in ACC play. The Demon Deacons have been one of the worst teams in the ACC this season. They should not be getting this much respect tonight from oddsmakers as only 4.5-point underdogs to Syracuse.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Syracuse) - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%), in March games are 60-35 (63.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Demon Deacons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Orange are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Syracuse Tuesday.
|03-05-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH -3||55-68||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
15* MAC Tournament No-Brainer on Miami Ohio -3
It’s safe to say that Miami Ohio was already going to be motivated with their season on the line today in the MAC Tournament. But adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost twice to Ohio in the last few weeks. Now they’re playing with double-revenge.
They just lost at home to Ohio 66-75 on March 2nd in their regular season finale. With that game fresh in their minds, I think you’ll see their best effort of the season tonight. It was a rare road win for the Bobcats, who are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Miami Ohio) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite are 79-36 (68.7%) ATS since 1997.
Miami Ohio is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game this season. Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. The Redhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Roll with Miami Ohio Monday.
|03-04-18||Temple v. Tulsa -2||Top||58-76||Win||100||4 h 40 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa -2
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane want revenge from a 58-59 road loss at Temple as 8-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. I expect them to get that revenge with a win and cover as only 2-point home favorites over the Owls at home this time around.
Tulsa is clearly the better team and has been undervalued most of the season. They are 18-11 SU & 17-9 ATS in all games. They are also 12-2 SU at home this season with a very underrated home-court advantage. They are closing the season strong by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final eight games with their only loss coming 74-82 at Cincinnati as 16-point underdogs.
Temple is just ready to get on to the AAC Tournament. The Owls are 1-3 in their last four games to fall to 16-13 on the season. That includes a 21-point home loss to Houston and an upset road loss at Connecticut.
Tulsa is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games over the last three years. Bet Tulsa Sunday.
|03-04-18||Illinois State +8.5 v. Loyola-Chicago||49-65||Loss||-102||2 h 28 m||Show|
15* Illinois State/Loyola-Chicago MVC Championship No-Brainer on Illinois State +8.5
Loyola-Chicago is likely to make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in this game Sunday. The same cannot be said for Illinois State, which needs a win to make the big dance. And I think that extra motivation for them will be key here.
I also think this is as simply as it gets because Illinois State played Loyola tough in both meetings during the regular season. The Redbirds only lost by 7 points at home and by 7 points on the road in their regular season finale. Now they are getting 8.5 points on a neutral and I believe there to be a ton of value here because of it.
Illinois State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons. It is winning by 7.3 points per game on average in this spot. The Redbirds are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here. Take Illinois State Sunday.
|03-03-18||Notre Dame +9 v. Virginia||Top||57-62||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +9
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament. They caught some bad breaks with injuries to their two best players in Bonzie Colson (20.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Matt Farrell (17.1 ppg, 5.4 apg). Colson missed 15 games while Farrell missed 5 earlier this season, but both are back healthy.
It has paid huge dividends as the Fighting Irish have stepped up big down the stretch and played up to their potential. They are 3-1 in their last four games with their only loss coming to Miami by 3 points. They went on the road and beat Boston College by 17 and Wake Forest by 5, while also crushing Pitt by 17 at home. Now they’ll be motivated for a win over the No. 1 ranked team in the country in Virginia, which would almost certainly get them off the bubble and into the big dance.
Virginia has nothing to play for right now. The Cavaliers have already wrapped up the ACC regular season title and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens from here on out. They were fortunate to beat Louisville 67-66 last time out on a banked 3-pointer at the buzzer. I fully expect them to not show up today and for the Fighting Irish to give them a run for the money and stay within this lofty spread.
Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. The Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their ranking. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|03-03-18||TCU v. Texas Tech -4.5||Top||75-79||Loss||-106||6 h 48 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -4.5
It’s safe to say the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be highly motivated for a victory on Senior Day today. They are coming off four consecutive losses with three of those coming on the road to Baylor, Oklahoma State and WVU, and the other a tough 2-point home loss to Big 12 champion Kansas. Look for them to lay it all on the line today to get a win.
TCU comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak both straight up and ATS. But three of those four games came at home against Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas State, and their only road win came against the worst team in the Big 12 in Iowa State.
Texas Tech is 16-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Kansas. The Red Raiders are outscoring their opponents by 18.4 points per game at home this year. The Horned Frogs are just 3-6 in true road games. Texas Tech has three key players expected to play that have missed time with injuries prior in Keenan Evans, Zach Smith and Justin Gray. That should give them a big boost at home today.
TCU is 5-14 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons. Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more. Take Texas Tech Saturday.
|03-03-18||Michigan v. Michigan State -3.5||75-64||Loss||-105||4 h 58 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5
Michigan will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days here. The Wolverines were fortunate to get by Iowa in overtime in their Big Ten Tournament opener. Then Nebraska couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean and shot just 30.2% against them in Game 2, while the Wolverines couldn’t miss from 3-point range. I think they meet their match here in Michigan State.
The Spartans are 28-3 this season and vying for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They will also be motivated to avenge one of their three losses this season, which came in upset fashion 72-82 at home to Michigan. The Spartans are the fresher team here after receiving the double-bye and playing just one game up to this point. They are also the more motivated team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites because of it.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Michigan State) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 113-63 (64.2%) ATS since 1997. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Michigan State Saturday.
|03-03-18||Baylor v. Kansas State -1.5||67-77||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today. They already beat Baylor 90-83 on the road this season and have their number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
Now the Wildcats should be able to handle the Bears at home. Kansas State is 13-3 at home this season and winning by 11.3 points per game. Baylor is just 2-8 SU in true road games, losing by 7.4 points per game on average.
Kansas State will be motivated for a win on Senior Day here, and also to bounce back from two straight road losses to Oklahoma and TCU coming in. The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons. Bet Kansas State Saturday.
|03-02-18||Michigan v. Nebraska +4.5||Top||77-58||Loss||-102||2 h 25 m||Show|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska +4.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have made me more money than any other college basketball team this season. It’s because they have been the single-most underrated team in the country. I’m not about to buck them now with what’s at stake in the Big Ten Tournament.
According to Joe Lunardi, Nebraska is a ‘first four out’ team despite going 22-9 overall and 13-5 in Big Ten play to earn a double-bye and the 4th seed. If that’s not disrespect, I don’t know what is. So the Huskers will still be playing with a chip on their shoulder here just like they have been all season. It has propelled them into going a mind-blowing 18-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
Now they get to face a Michigan team that they already beat 72-52 at home in their lone meeting this season. And it’s a Michigan team that will be playing the second consecutive day after beating Iowa 77-71 in overtime yesterday. That’s a huge advantage for the Huskers, who will be rested while the Wolverines will be extra fatigued from having to go to OT.
Nebraska is 9-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons. The Huskers are 10-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better after 15-plus games this season. The Huskers are 13-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers after 15-plus games this year. These three trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Friday.
|03-01-18||Stanford +10.5 v. Arizona||67-75||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
15* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +10.5
The Arizona Wildcats are a team I really want to fade right now. I did so with success by fading them at Oregon last time out, and I’ll do so again tonight as they are way overvalued as 10.5-point home favorites over the Stanford Cardinal.
The reason to fade the Wildcats is all the distractions surrounding head coach Sean Miller and the $100,000 payment that was made to star forward DeAndre Ayton (19.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg). That’s a lot for a freshman to handle. The Wildcats are also playing without their best scorer in Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg), who tested positive for a banned substance and has been ruled ineligible for now.
Stanford has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season. The Cardinal are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in conference play. They will certainly be wanting revenge from a 71-73 home loss as 6-point underdogs to the Wildcats back on January 20th in their first meeting this season.
Arizona is 1-7 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season. Stanford is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games off a win by 6 points or less. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Arizona is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this year. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Arizona is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Wildcats are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Stanford Thursday.
|03-01-18||Virginia v. Louisville +4||67-66||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* Virginia/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +4
Louisville could really use a win over Virginia to get on the right side of the bubble. The Cardinals are currently on the ‘last four in’ line according to Joe Lunardi, so they have no room to spare. A win over the top team in the ACC would do them wonders tonight.
Not only will they be motivated to punch their tickets to the big dance, they’ll also be motivated because it’s Senior Night and they want to send their seniors out with a memorable victory in their final home game. The Cardinals also want revenge from a tough 64-74 loss at Virginia as 10.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 31st. They played them tough four 40 minutes and will certainly do the same at home tonight.
I really question Virginia’s motivation over these final two games of the regular season. The Cavaliers already have the ACC title locked up with their 15-1 record. Even if they were to lose their final two games, they would still be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament because everyone is talking about how they are the only sure thing to get a 1-seed. I doubt they’ll be putting their best foot forward here.
Louisville is 14-4 at home this season and winning by 12.6 points per game on average. Three of their four home losses have come by 5 points or less, so they are really close to being 17-1 at home. They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and it will certainly be a hostile crowd here on Senior Night with the No. 1 team in the country visiting the KFC Yum Center. Take Louisville Thursday.
|02-28-18||Florida State v. Clemson -3||Top||63-76||Win||101||8 h 19 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -3
The Clemson Tigers have many reasons to be motivated for a win today at home against the Florida State Seminoles. For starters, it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game. Look for them to put forth a huge effort tonight to get the win and cover.
Secondly, Clemson lost 79-81 at Florida State in overtime on February 14th exactly two weeks ago today. So, they’ll want revenge from that defeat. Also, the Tigers are looking to get a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. They are currently tied for 4th place with NC State at 10-6, but they own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny. Win out and they will get that double-bye.
Clemson is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season. The Tigers are winning by 14.9 points per game on average on their home floor. Their only loss came to Duke. Clemson is also 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Florida State.
The Seminoles are not playing well at all right now. They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion by 15 at Notre Dame and by 20 at NC State. They are just 4-6 in true road games this season.
It’s worth nothing that Shelton Mitchell (11.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) suffered a concussion against Florida State in their previous meeting. He missed their next two games against Duke and VA Tech, and they went 0-3 in that three-game stretch without him. But Mitchell returned to score 14 points against Georgia Tech last time out. They are 21-4 with him fully healthy, and 0-3 when he doesn’t play the full game.
Clemson is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a win. Plays against road teams as a dog or PK (Florida State) in a game involving two good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS since 1997. Bet Clemson Wednesday.
|02-28-18||Villanova v. Seton Hall +6.5||69-68||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* Villanova/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +6.5
The Seton Hall Pirates were getting dangerously close to the bubble with their four-game losing streak to start the month of February. But this veteran squad has shown their resiliency, going 3-0 in their last three games with a home win over DePaul, and impressive upset road wins at Providence and at St. John’s.
Now the Pirates are locked in and ready to give Villanova a run for its money tonight. Seton Hall has gone 13-2 at home this season while winning by 12.6 points per game on average. And now they get one of their best players in Desi Rodriquez (18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg) back from an ankle injury just in time to face the Wildcats.
Villanova has certainly proven vulnerable in recent games. They are just 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall. They were upset at home by St. John’s 75-79 as 16-point favorites, lost 71-76 at Providence as 9.5-point favorites, and lost 83-89 at Creighton as 7.5-point favorites. There’s no question the Pirates are capable of upsetting them as well, let alone staying within this lofty 6.5-point spread.
Seton Hall is 24-11 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Pirates are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Seton Hall. Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday.
|02-28-18||Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5||78-96||Win||100||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -8.5
In typical John Calipari fashion at Kentucky, this team is getting better as the season moves along. It’s easy to see why with the Wildcats. They are always loaded with freshmen and it takes time for them to learn. It is also a testament to how underrated a coach Calipari is.
Indeed, the Wildcats have played some of their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while beating Alabama 81-71 as 4.5-point home favorites, Arkansas 87-72 as 5-point road dogs and Missouri 87-66 as 5-point home favorites.
Kentucky is 22-4 against Ole Miss since 1997, including 10-1 in all home meetings during that stretch. This Ole Miss team is a mess as Andy Kennedy stepped down as head coach a few weeks ago. The Rebels have gone 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are clearly just ready for their season to be over.
Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons. The Rebels are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games this year, getting outscored by 12.7 points per game. The Rebels have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits. Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rebels are 2-13 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Take Kentucky Wednesday.
|02-27-18||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -2||Top||113-117||Win||102||8 h 27 m||Show|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Bonaventure -2
St. Bonaventure is currently a bubble team to make the NCAA Tournament. Win out and they are likely in. They have put themselves in this position by winning 10 straight games to get to 22-6 on the season.
Their last loss came on the road at Davidson 73-83 back on January 19th. So they’ll be out for revenge in the rematch at home this time around. They’ll also be motivated to win on Senior Night with this tremendous class of seniors. Not to mention a berth in the big dance is likely at stake tonight.
The Bonnies are 12-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game. The Wildcats are just 7-9 in all road games this year. They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.
Davidson doesn’t have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the conference tournament. In a battle between two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the more motivated square at home tonight at an excellent value as only 2-point favorites. Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.
|02-27-18||Tennessee v. Mississippi State -1.5||76-54||Loss||-107||6 h 17 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -1.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season. There were little expectations coming in, but now sitting at 21-8 and 9-7 within the conference, they have played themselves into the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi.
Obviously, the Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a win over Tennessee that would likely get them in the tournament. They will also be motivated for Senior Night as this is their final home game. And boy have they been good at home, going 18-1 this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the SEC in Auburn.
Tennessee has lost two of its last three road games with a 50-78 loss at Alabama and a 62-73 loss at Georgia. The Vols’ only win came 73-65 at Ole Miss, a team that has basically quit since Andy Kennedy resigned. The Vols are safely in the tournament and don’t need this win nearly as much as the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State is 13-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Mississippi State Tuesday.
|02-26-18||Duke v. Virginia Tech +6||63-64||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
15* Duke/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +6
The Virginia Tech Hokies are currently among the ‘last four byes’ according to Joe Lunardi. They are clearly a bubble team and could really use a signature win here of Duke to punch their ticket to the big dance. That’s especially the case with a tough road game at Miami coming in their season finale Saturday.
So it’s clear the Hokies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for their NCAA Tournament chances. They will also be motivated because it’s Senior Day and these seniors have really helped turn around this program under Buzz Williams. They also want to avenge a 52-74 loss at Duke in their first meeting this season.
I certainly think the Blue Devils are starting to be overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. And they could be looking ahead to their huge showdown Saturday with their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home. Plus they are dealing with the distractions of being named in the FBI probe.
Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons. The Hokies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The Hokies are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 home games. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including an 89-75 upset win over Duke at home last year for the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Monday.
|02-25-18||Penn State v. Nebraska||Top||64-76||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska PK
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been grossly undervalued all season. So it’s no surprise that they are once again a pick ‘em at home against Penn State today when they should be laying 5-6 points. We’ll take advantage and back them on Senior Day in what is a huge game for them to make the NCAA Tournament.
Despite going 21-9 this season and 12-5 in Big Ten play, which has them in fourth place, the Huskers are actually one of the first teams out according to Joe Lunardi. He still thinks they have work to do, and they should be motivated by it.
The Huskers have gone a ridiculous 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall. They have been an extremely tough at out home, going 15-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this year with their only loss coming to Kansas by a single point 72-73. What more does this team have to do to earn some respect?
Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Penn State. The Huskers will also be motivated for revenge from a 74-76 loss at Penn State on January 12th in their first meeting this season. Nebraska is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning % from 60% to 80% this season. Bet Nebraska Sunday.
|02-25-18||Michigan State v. Wisconsin +8||68-63||Win||100||2 h 11 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Wisconsin CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +8
The Michigan State Spartans need a win Sunday to avoid sharing the Big Ten title with Purdue and Ohio State. But that is clearly priced into the line as they are whopping 8-point road favorites at Wisconsin. I think the value is with the home underdog Badgers because they aren’t going to make it easy for the Spartans.
Wisconsin comes in playing its best basketball of the season. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They are 4-1 SU in their last five games with upset road wins at Illinois (78-69) and Northwestern (70-64), as well as home wins over Purdue (57-53) as 11-point dogs and Minnesota (73-63).
The Badgers would love nothing more than to spoil Michigan State’s Big Ten title hopes, and they’ll also be motivated for Senior Day. They want revenge from a 61-76 loss at Michigan State as 17-point underdogs in their first meeting this season as well.
Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons. It is actually winning these games by 15.7 points per game on average. Roll with Wisconsin Sunday.
|02-24-18||Arizona v. Oregon -2||Top||93-98||Win||100||16 h 12 m||Show|
20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2
The Arizona Wildcats are in a tough spot here. They were already without leading scorer Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg) due to testing positive for a banned substance recently. Now it came out on Friday that Sean Miller was caught talking a $100,000 payment to star freshman Deandre Ayton. He is surely to lose his job, and sanctions will come down. This is a huge distraction for the Wildcats right now.
Meanwhile, Oregon is locked in and focused. The Ducks currently sit at 18-10 on the season and are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament. They picked up a huge win against Arizona State on Thursday at home, and now another win over Arizona would go a long way in getting them into the tournament.
With the way the Ducks are playing at home of late, they should have no problem covering this small 2-point spread. They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington, a 27-point win over Washington State and a 7-point win over Arizona State. Arizona needed overtime to beat Oregon State on the road Thursday, and now they will be tired on top of the distractions.
Oregon is 12-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more over the last three years. The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Ducks are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 Pac-12 games. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Oregon Saturday.
|02-24-18||San Diego v. San Francisco -3.5||64-61||Loss||-106||16 h 51 m||Show|
15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco -3.5
This is an awful spot for the San Diego Toreros. They just gave Gonzaga all they could handle in a 72-77 home loss. Now they will clearly suffer a hangover after falling just short against the WCC champs. They won’t bring the kind of effort it’s going to take to match San Francisco’s intensity Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Dons want revenge from a 63-73 loss at San Diego in their first meeting this season. That was a rare loss for San Francisco in this series as they had won their previous four meetings all by 6 points or more. This is also Senior Night for San Francisco, adding to their motivation.
The Dons come in playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 73-75 as 9.5-point underdogs at BYU. That includes a 70-63 home upset of St. Mary’s as 9-point underdogs.
San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in Saturday games this season. The Dons are 8-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days this season. The Toreros are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Roll with San Francisco Saturday.
|02-24-18||Auburn v. Florida -2||66-72||Win||100||14 h 16 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -2
The Florida Gators are dangerously playing their way onto the bubble. They have done so by losing three straight by a combined 11 points coming in. Now they are desperate for a signature win over the team with the best record in the SEC in Auburn. I fully expect a big effort from the Gators at home here Saturday to save their season.
Auburn has been hit hard by the injury bug here of late. First it was Anferneed McLemore (7.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go down with a season-ending ankle injury on February 17th. Now it’s second-leading scorer Mustapha Heron (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) who is dealing with the flu and is highly questionable to suit up for this one. The Tigers are clearly more vulnerable right now than they have been all season.
Florida simply owns Auburn, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings, and 23-3 SU in the last 26 meetings. The Gators are 11-0 SU in their last 11 home meetings with the Tigers. Florida is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Roll with Florida Saturday.
|02-24-18||Iowa State v. West Virginia -16||Top||70-85||Loss||-105||12 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -16
The Iowa State Cyclones are an absolute mess right now. They are without three of their best players in Donovan Jackson (15.4 ppg), Nick Weiler-Babb (13.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Solomon Young (7.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg). That leaves them extremely short-handed heading into this game with West Virginia.
That makes this a terrible matchup for the Cyclones against WVU’s press. The Cyclones only played seven players against TCU on Wednesday. They even had Jackson for that game, but he has decided to take some extra time off to mourn the loss of his father. Iowa State will wear down quickly in this one and will be begging for mercy by halftime.
West Virginia will have no mercy considering they lost to Iowa State 77-93 on the road in the first meeting. Now the Cyclones have to hit the road, where they have been atrocious. Indeed, the Cyclones are 0-8 & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season, losing by a whopping 14.0 points per game on average. And they were healthy for almost all of those games, which isn’t the case now.
Iowa State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after playing five consecutive games as an underdog. The Cyclones are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Mountaineers are 12-3 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game on average. Bet West Virginia Saturday.
|02-24-18||Kansas State v. Oklahoma -3.5||77-86||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5
This is the ultimate ‘get right’ spot for the Oklahoma Sooners. They have lost six straight games coming in and are now back to being undervalued after being overvalued for the majority of conference season following their hot start in non-conference play.
This 0-6 stretch is understandable considering the Sooners have played four of their last six games on the road with home losses to WVU by 2 and Texas by 11. Now they face a team they can handle in Kansas State, and they are certainly going to want some revenge after losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan in their first meeting this season.
The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season and scoring 93.2 points per game. The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. They are clearly overvalued right now. Look for a huge effort from the home team tonight. Take Oklahoma Saturday.
|02-24-18||USC v. Utah -2.5||74-58||Loss||-103||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2.5
The Utah Utes are the hottest team in the Pac-12 right now. They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to get to 18-9 on the season and play themselves into the bubble discussion of the NCAA Tournament. They are currently one of the first few teams out according to Joe Lunardi, and a win over USC tonight would really help their cause.
Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes are 12-2 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.9 points per game. They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Pac-12 home games, beating Washington by 8, Washington State by 13, Stanford by 15, California by 34 and UCLA by 6.
USC is extremely vulnerable right now since losing stud forward Bennie Boatwright on January 16th to a season-ending knee injury. Boatright averages 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. He is irreplaceable on this team. The Trojans are only 5-5 in true road games this season, and they will have a hard time winning in a hostile atmosphere here Saturday without one of their leaders.
Utah is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season. The Utes are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the past two years. Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with USC, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City. Take Utah Saturday.
|02-22-18||Arizona State v. Oregon -3||Top||68-75||Win||100||19 h 28 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon -3
At 17-10 on the season and 7-7 in Pac-12 play, the Oregon Ducks are clearly on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. At 19-7 overall and with a strong non-conference record with several wins against quality teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils are safely in the big dance right now. It’s clear which team needs this win more.
I expect Oregon to come out like gangbusters tonight to try and get a win at home. They Ducks have been very good at home of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington and a 27-point win over Washington State.
Arizona is in a massive hangover spot after losing to Arizona last time out, getting swept in the season series by their biggest rivals. Now they have no shot of winning the Pac-12 after that defeat. And Oregon owns Arizona State, going 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Ducks are also 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Sun Devils.
Oregon is 11-2 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. Arizona State is 3-13 ATS in road gams when revenging a loss over the last three seasons. The Ducks beat the Sun Devils 76-72 as 7.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 11th. The Sun Devils are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Bet Oregon Thursday.
|02-22-18||San Francisco v. Pacific -2||84-74||Loss||-105||18 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific -2
The Pacific Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. They have gone 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 WCC Games. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Now Pacific is going to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight against San Francisco. It’s Senior Night for the Tigers, and they also want revenge from a tough 67-69 road loss at San Francisco in their first meeting back on January 25th.
The Dons are starting to get too much respect now off back-to-back wins over St. Mary’s and Loyola-Marymount. They caught St. Mary’s in a big letdown spot off a loss to Gonzaga. I think the motivation and home court edge makes the Tigers a great play tonight.
The Dons are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 0-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. Take Pacific Thursday.
|02-21-18||TCU v. Iowa State +5.5||89-83||Loss||-105||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5
The Iowa State Cyclones will be playing inspired basketball tonight. They will be trying to win this game for star point guard Donavan Jackson, who lost his father on Saturday night. Jackson has decided to play in this game with a heavy heart, and his teammates will certainly rally around him.
The crowd should be rocking for Jackson and company tonight. The Cyclones continue to have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that has been on display of late. Iowa State is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 home games, which includes outright upsets over Baylor (75-65), Texas Tech (70-52), West Virginia (93-77) and Oklahoma (88-80).
TCU has not played very well on the road here in Big 12 play, either. The Horned Frogs are just 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven road games. With that track record, they should not be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers as 5.5-point road favorites over the Cyclones.
Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better over the last three seasons. TCU is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two years. The Horned Frogs are 1-8 ATS off a Big 12 home win over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS off two more more consecutive losses over the last three years. TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win. Iowa State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.
|02-21-18||Clemson v. Virginia Tech -4||Top||58-65||Win||100||7 h 7 m||Show|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4
The Virginia Tech Hokies are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Now they get a chance at a signature win tonight over No. 15 Clemson at home. I look for them to take advantage and win this game in blowout fashion.
The Hokies are playing some great basketball here down the stretch in going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a road wins over both Notre Dame and Virginia as they have played five of those eight games on the road. They also beat both UNC and NC State at home and are 12-3 at home this year.
Clemson is vulnerable right now, and that has shown with back-to-back losses to Florida State and Duke. They were already without one of their best players in Donte Grantham (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), but now they’ll also be without fourth-leading scorer and top assist man Shelton Mitchell (11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg) tonight due to a concussion.
The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hokies are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. Virginia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Clemson, including 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home meetings. Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.
|02-21-18||Michigan v. Penn State -2.5||72-63||Loss||-108||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5
At 19-10 on the season, the Penn State Nittany Lions are good enough to be an NCAA Tournament team. But they find themselves squarely on the bubble right now and in need of a big win. That opportunity comes tonight as they host No. 17 Michigan.
The Nittany Lions are 14-3 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game on average. They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Their only two losses both came on the road to the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State (68-76) as 14.5-point dogs and Purdue (73-76) as 9-point dogs. Those two efforts proved they could play with anyone. They also beat Ohio State 79-56 at home.
Michigan hasn’t exactly fared well on the road recently. The Wolverines are just 1-3 in their last four road games with their lone win coming at lowly Wisconsin. They lost 52-61 at Northwestern, 88-92 at Purdue and 52-72 at Nebraska. Now they have to face a hostile environment here on Senior Night at Penn State. These seniors have done a lot for this program, and they want to end their careers with an NCAA Tournament berth. A win here would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.
Penn State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons. Michigan is 10-19 ATS off a home win over the last two years. The Nittany Lions are 11-3 ATS in home games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons. Take Penn State Wednesday.
|02-20-18||Kentucky +5.5 v. Arkansas||87-72||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5
The Kentucky Wildcats lost four in a row for the first time in the John Calipari era recently. They are now undervalued due to that tough stretch that features road losses at Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn and a home loss to Tennessee.
But that tough stretch will have prepared these young Wildcats for the stretch run. They responded well with an 81-71 win over Alabama over the weekend. Now they hit the road to take on an Arkansas team that I think is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now.
The Razorbacks have won four in a row and seven of their last nine games overall. You’re now starting to have to pay a point spread tax on Arkansas due to this run. But I don’t believe this is one of the better teams in the SEC. I expect Kentucky to be able to handle them tonight.
Kentucky owns Arkansas, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning those five by an average of 17.8 points per game. Now we are getting the Wildcats as substantial underdogs here tonight. Roll with Kentucky Tuesday.
|02-20-18||Creighton v. Butler -5.5||Top||70-93||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -5.5
The Butler Bulldogs will be out for revenge from an 85-74 road loss at Creighton in their first meeting back on January 9th. Well the Bluejays have lost one of their best players in Martin Krampelj since then to injury, and they simply aren’t as good.
That has shown as the Bluejays have gone just 4-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in lined games. They just lost at home to Marquette last time out as 6-point favorites and have dropped three of their last four Big East games. They are ripe for the picking right now.
Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Bulldogs are 13-3 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season. They are coming off an impressive 69-54 home victory over Providence as 8.5-point favorites. Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.
Creighton is 4-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last three years. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 85 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Butler Tuesday.
|02-20-18||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -6.5||93-81||Loss||-103||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -6.5
Off back-to-back road losses at Missouri and Arkansas, the Texas A&M Aggies come in highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament due to their 6-8 conference record. They need a big finish here and will be motivated to get in the big dance.
I think this is a great time to fade Mississippi State, which is coming off a 79-62 home win over rival Ole Miss. But the Bulldogs haven’t been very good on the road this season, going just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in true road games. Texas A&M is 12-2 at home this year and winning by 13.2 points per game.
The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, beating Kentucky by 11, South Carolina by 23, Arkansas by 14 and Missouri by 11. Mississippi State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Texas A&M is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
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