Maryland +275 1.5% Play 

I think there is good value here when you factor in that Iowa won't be able to take advantage of their obvious offensive strength which is passing the ball.  Iowa's running game is 87th in the country and they'll be going up against Maryland's 13th ranked run defense.  There will be 24mph winds in this game, and this game is going to come down to who can run better, and I'm back Maryland here with some excellent value as they rank 7th in rushing yards per carry going up against an obviously good Iowa run defense which ranks 11th, but Maryland obviously has the athletes here. 

Michigan State +7 3.3% play

This could not set up any better for the Spartans who are getting disrespected all over the place despite being 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, 10-0 ATS.  The weather is the bigger reason why I'm backing the Spartans on Saturday as it's going to be rainy, and windy, and Jim Harbough already struggled to come up with an innovative offensive play in regular weather.  He has also been super conservative in these types of games which always tends to come down to a field goal, and the total here is 41 points which gives us more value on the +7 for the home dog.

Michigan State has very quietly played the tougher schedule having faced an average defense ranking 50th in yards per play, compared to Michigan's offense that has faced #68.  Michigan State's defense on average has faced #50.8 offense ypp, while Michigan has faced 56.2.  Michigan State's weakness right now is in the secondary, but I don't know how much we can see Michigan taking advantage of it.  Right now they feel really good about their running game hammering it 60% of the time, and the weather should be a big reason why they don't challenge Michigan State's secondary. 

Michigan State's run defense is #1 in the country and tested facing an average offense ranking 53.8.  That's better than Michigan's run defense that ranks an impressive #12 against a #56.  Michigan State's offense however can be more creative, and take advantage of some of the aggressive play calling of Don Brown's defense.  We have seen it before with the Spartans and it's just an example of better coaching.  They also have the WR in Felton Davis who can make plays.  If you recall SMU's James Proche had 11 receptions for 166 yards against Michigan's secondary.

Honestly, what has Michigan really proven other than the fact that Jim Harbough is a bully, and he can beat bad teams.  They struggled against Northwestern, so did Michigan State.  They struggled against Notre Dame with extra preparation and a lot of pressure.  They have more pressure here, and that Notre Dame team was extremely one dimensional with their QB at the time in Wimbush.  Michigan State has 2 losses, I'm giving them a pass for the 4th quarter melt down at Arizona State where it was 97 degrees and the game didn't end until 3pm local time.  Northwestern also came back in the 4th quarter chucking the ball 47 times for 373 yards, and unless the weather changes I don't see Harbough letting Shea Patterson do the same thing.  I'm more impressed with their win at Penn State, who was off a bye last week.  Michigan State will continue to play the little brother card, and it will work again.

Auburn -3.5 2.2% play

I like Auburn here who we are obviously buying low on after they lost back to back games, and everyone is rumoring that Gus Malzahn is out if he loses this game.  I think he gets a full effort from his team against a team that may just not care. Ole MIss can’t go to a bowl game, they just lost their #2WR in DK Metcalf to a neck injury for the season, and they have struggled on offense when they face elite defenses.  Auburn’s defense once was elite, and you could see them play that way here on Saturday. Auburn can still stop the run ranking 35th, and against they rank 25th. I think they can double cover A.J Brown and force Jordan Ta’amu to beat them another way.

On the flip side I think Auburn can give this a full effort before going into their bye.  I’m not going to go crazy about their loss to Tennessee last week who was off a bye themselves.  Jarret Stidham who I have criticized on my podcast just got down throwing for 300 yards for the first time.  He is now facing an Ole MIss secondary that ranks 90th in QB Rating defense, and that rating comes against an average opponent QB rating of 75.16.  Expecting a big game from Stidham who should finally have the balance of the running game as Ole Miss ranks 91st vs. the run. I think we have motivation on the side of Auburn, and we are getting line value for Auburn’s recent play, and their offense finally should get going here.

Buffalo -1 3.3% play

We did not get the best of this line unfortunately, but still feel great about Buffalo here. There will be 15mph winds, and some light rain, and the total has dropped 6 points. I have Buffalo a favorite here, and I expect they will win.

 Both teams rely on the running game 58% of the time, and need to in a game like this where the weather will be a factor. Buffalo is just better at the line of scrimmage as Toledo #121 in stopping the run, and that's against a weak schedule facing teams who on average rank 72.6 in rushing yards per carry. Buffalo comes into this game ranked 41st in rushing yards per carry leaning heavily on two freshman backs. On the flip side Toledo 44th in rushing yards per carry, but they're going up against a Buffalo run defense that ranks 50th. Although Buffalo has faced an easy schedule in terms of rushing attacks they faced ranking on average 87th they have gotten the job done, and their pass defense is even better.   At some point these two teams are going to have to put the ball in the air, and extreme advantage Buffalo when you factor in Buffalo's 15th ranked pass defense vs. Toledo's 103rd ranked defense. I spoke about controlling the line of scrimmage. Well Buffalo 1st in sack % allowed going up against the Toledo's pass rush defense that is 125th in sack %. Buffalo ranks 33rd in sack % going up against a Toledo 118th sack % allowed. There is a reason why Toledo ranks 74th in TO margin per game and Buffalo is 27th, another advantage to Buffalo.   Finally, these two had one common game in Eastern Michigan. Buffalo won by a TD at home and they were +1.25 yards per play, +9% success rate while Toledo played last week were down 28-3 at one point and Eastern Michigan lost their QB in the 2nd Q, allowing Toledo to get back in that game in misleading fashion. They were -1.99 yards per play, -8% success rate

Wake Forest +10.5 4.4% play

What has Florida State proven to show that they should be a double digit favorite?  They nearly upset Miami, I get that, but they only had 200 yards in that game of total offense.  Florida State should have lost to an awful Louisville team teh week before that, and they were dominated on the road against a slightly above average Syracuse team.  Meanwhile Wake Forest comes off a game where they were embarrassed by a hungry Clemson team. They too are off a bye, and have played Florida State well and tight the last few years.

 

Wake Forest, by far has faced the stronger schedule having faced Notre Dame, Clemson, and BC.  Florida State has one of the worst offensive lines in the country. They have faced an average run defense ranking 95.4, and they rank 128th in the country in rushing yards per carry.  Many will point out WAke Forest’s 126th ranking, but they have faced a lot of great rushing attacks thus far ranking on average 61st in yards per carry. They have only given up 2 rushing TD’s all season if you take away the Notre Dame & Clemson games where they gave up 12.

Offensively I think Wake Forest has balance and their up-tempo style should allow them to move the ball and score points in this game.  The Florida State defense is good vs. the run, but they have faced teams that can’t run the ball, and they are giving up a ton of yards on defense ranking 51st in QB rating defense they have faced on average a QB rated offense ranking 88.4.  This game means much more to Wake Forest who wants to get to a bowl game Dave Clawson 16-11-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile Florida State has a game against Clemson at home next.