Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins -1.5
I usually like going against teams who are coming off a blowout win the previous week. They are almost always overvalued the next week, and I think that’s the case here with the Dallas Cowboys. This line should be Washington -3, and instead it’s Washington -1.5. We’re getting some value here with the Redskins.
The Cowboys are coming off a 40-7 blowout victory over the Jaguars at home. They improved to 3-0 at home this season. Big deal. The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road this season, and they have been dominated for the most part, especially statistically.
The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 points per game on the road this season. They are getting outscored by 7.4 points per game and outgained by 74 yards per game. And their three losses have come to the Panthers, Seahawks and Texans, so it’s not like they are playing world beaters away from home.
The Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this season. They are 3-2 right now and sit atop the NFC East. They already head their bye week so they are fresher than most teams. And they have played very well at home this season.
Indeed, the Redskins are 2-1 at home this year. They have wins over the Packers 31-17 and the Panthers 23-17 who I believe are both better than the Cowboys. And their only loss came 9-21 to the Colts and it was very fluky. The Redskins outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. They are outgaining opponents by 18 yards per game this season, so there is nothing fluky about their 3-2 start.
I think a big key here is that Washington’s defense is better than it gets credit for, and it is certainly good at stopping the run. The Redskins give up just 90 rushing yards per game this season. And the Cowboys only average 172 passing yards per game. The Cowboys are a one-dimensional offense with their running game, and the Redskins have the players to stop it. The Cowboys will have their passing game hampered even more this week with two key receivers in Tavon Austin and Terrance Williams expected to sit out.
Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less in its previous game. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5
The Jaguars have lost back-to-back road games in blowout fashion to the Chiefs (14-30) and Cowboys (7-40). It’s safe to say they will be looking to take out their frustration this week at home against the Houston Texans. Their defense should get back to being the dominant unit it has been over the past two seasons with the exception of the last two weeks. The Jaguars have given up just 13.7 points and 238 yards per game at home this season. They have beaten the Patriots by 11 and the Jets by 19 at home this year. They did lose 6-9 to the Titans, but that was a letdown spot off the big win over the Patriots. The Texans are starting to get some respect off three straight wins following an 0-3 start to the season. But they could have lost all three of those games. They needed OT to beat the Colts and Cowboys, and they needed a pick-6 late out of Nathan Peterman to beat the Bills at home last week. I don’t expect this one-dimensional Houston offense to have much success against the Jaguars this week. Deshaun Watson will be running for his life without a running game. Doug Marrone is 7-0 ATS in his last seven games as a head coach after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in his previous game. Give me the Jaguars.
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1* Free Play on Chargers -6½ -104
Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Cowboys and Skins Under
A classic rivalry with a very different look this year. The Cowboys are off a "perfect storm" in crushing the Jags on Sunday. Dak and Zeke will be on the road and running into the teeth of a solid defensive front seven that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this year. The Cowboy defense is their best unit but they face a generally turnover-proof Alex Smith here and rejuvenated running game with Adrian Peterson leading the way. Lost of football between the 20s with the clock running. This series has posted five straight overs but that run comes to an end here. 20-17 .... regardless.
1* Free Pick on Browns +
Analysis will be posted shortly
[1%] Free Play on Bucs -3